Gorath wrote on 11/01/10 at 14:39:43:
I don't think this is a position a 2100 amateur player can realistically expect to win against a prepared opponent of similar strength.
I disagree entirely. Material is equal, but White has several small advantages:
a) Black's passed pawn on c7 is a weakness since it cannot advance easily, and when White brings a rook to c1, Black's major pieces will be tied to its defence. In an ideal situation White could also target the a7-pawn, combined with advancing the king and creating a kingside passed pawn.
b) White's king is safer than Black's as Black does not have a h-pawn on the board. This means that in a queen plus rook endgame, White will be able to obtain a strong initiative with Rd7 and utilise Black's somewhat airy kingside.
c) While Black's passed pawn on c7 is vulnerable, White will be able to create a strong passed pawn with g4 and h4-h5. Black's king will be tied up preventing the pawn from promoting, and meanwhile White will be able to bring his king to the queenside.
These factors provide White with some winning chances. Black cannot hope for more than a draw, whereas White can press for a win until dawn. You can't expect to get a clear advantage just because Black isn't playing the Winawer or Classical.
About preparation, I wouldn't worry. 4...Nf6 players are trying to avoid theory, albeit at the cost of giving White += on a silver platter. Show me a 2100 player who has prepared something for Black after 22.Rad1, and I'll show you a GM who is out of book before move six.