@@ amateurdragoneer:
Statistics alone doesnt say much:
I browsed the high level games you mentioned 
Adams-Petric (1/2-1/2), McShane-vd.Sterren (0-1), 
Tiviakov-v Wely (1/2-1/2), T.Oral-???? (1-0)
These games didnt give me the impression, that black has
difficulties equalizing, if he takes a minimum of care.

The russian remains a solid defence.
I guess we have to wait, what Anand will prepare against Kramnik,
and see if Kamsky's choice in december was a one time outing,
or that there was more to it....

My guess for the darth of preferance for d4 would be Krammniks treatment of the Russian. In the castle line black gives up a pawn and it appears best play leads to an major piece ending that white can't win.

Here's what I think is the most promising line for White:

1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6 3. d4 Nxe4 4. Bd3 d5 5. Nxe5 Nd7 6. O-O Nxe5 7. dxe5 Nc5

White only scores 48% from this position. However, White scores 53.5% after 8. Nc3(!) which has been played at very high-level competition with Adams, Tiviakov, McShane, and Oral on the White side and Van Der Sterren and Van Wely defending the Black side.

With eigth move options for Black consisting of either c6 or Nxd3, White has scored 75% after both 8...c6 9. f4 and 8...Nxd3 9. Qxd3 c6 10. Ne2

That should be enough to give White some sort of advantage and While that certainly doesn't guarantee a win (or even a draw!!), it certainly gives White a good place to start from. I would like to note that it is possible that there is some new line out there in a book or NIC or that there is some refutation missing as there have been considerably few (in compared to critical lines with 3. Nxe5) games with this variation; only 14 from the position after 8. Nc3 I would also like to note that 8. Be2 is another interesting option and is much less explored than 8. Nc3

While Michael's line with 3. Nxe5 and 5. Nc3 may be an interesting try that would work an against an unprepared player, improvements have been found and black is, to say the least, holding his (her) own in that line. With 3. d4, there's definitely some variation in the Nd7 line that White players are worried about because I can't seem to find any convincing play for Black in other lines, I'm looking for a specific variation that might be the cause of this. Until I find it, however, 3. d4 will be my weapon agaisnt the Russian as it has been (quite reliably) for almost two years. Perhaps we can compare the options of 3. Nxe5 and 3. d4 to White's options against the Alekheine Defense. One option (the 4 Pawns attack), is an ambitious line giving white the opportunity for an advantage but with more risk (this being 3. d4 against the Russian) while the Classical or Exchange lines (representing 3. Nxe5) represent a conservative contentment with a modest advantage. Till next time, I'll see if I can track down something on the Nd7 line.

Regards,

Mitch

I believe it was a game against karpov that changed the mind of most people:
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.Nc3! Nxc3 6.dxc3 Be7 7.Bf4 Nd7 8.Qd2 Nc5 9.o-o-o Bg4 which I believe that it is preferred than the d4 variation.

I think it's a very good opening if you don't mind the possibility of a likely draw with 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.Qe2.  I think Spassky used to play this from time to time.

I am not sure about your position, but one idea against 3. d4 that I like is 3...exd4 4. e5 Ne4 5. Qxd4 f5!?, that Morozevich used recently.

BEsides, if the Russian was really that bad, then why are players like Anand, Adams and Kramnik playing it? I think these are better players than anybody else in this forum (no offence to the excellent gms who are putting together an excellent website.)