I posted here:
http://www.chesspub.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1158540272/15 my analysis of Minasian-Donchenko, USSR 1988, a game that is widely regarded as refuting 9...Qd7 10. Be2 0-0-0 11. 0-0 Bg4. White played 12. c5 Nd5 13. Nxd5 Qxd5 14. b4. Basically I think that with correct play, Donchenko should have drawn. Anyone can look at what I said there and tell me if they disagree.
More recently, it has appeared to me that "the" critical move may not be 14. b4, but 14. h3! Here Hort alleged that 14...Bxf3 15. Bxf3 Qc4 was unclear, but that judgement appears to me to be very much mistaken. For one thing, White can just play 16. Bxc6, after which I think he can be confident of the full point.
To understand why the natural 14...Bh5 doesn't work, please note that after 14. Ng5 (instead of 14. h3) 14...Bxe2 15. Qxe2 Nxd4 16. Bxd4 Qxd4+ 17. Kh1 Qd2! Black just barely achieves an equal ending. But the analogue with 14. h3 thrown in is bad for Black, since with his little bit of luft, White can later lift both rooks with impunity.
Now in Burgess's book, it says that 14. h3 Qe4 15. Qb3 Nxd4"!" 16. Nxd4 Bxe2 17. Rf4 Qd3 18. Nxe2 Qxe2 19. Rxf7 Rd5 20. Raf1 Qxe3 equalizes, as allegedly analyzed by Nunn. Well, whoever analyzed this missed that White saves his queen by means of 21. Rxc7+. Black is lost. Instead of 17...Qd3, Black must play 17...Qxe5 18. Nxe2 Bxc5 19. Bxc5 Qxc5+, when Black's three pawns may be sufficient against White's knight, though I have my misgivings.
Worse still however, White has better than 15. Qb3. He should play instead 15. Qc1 after which Black has no better than 15...Bf5. Then 16. Ng5 Nxd4 17. Bc4 Qc6 (17...Qh4 18. c6 is even worse) 18. Nxf7 Bxc5 19. Qc3 and Black will have only one pawn for his exchange, with no apparent compensation. From this I concluded that 14...Qe4 cannot be played.
That leaves precisely one move: 14...Bf5. By this series of moves, relative to 11. c5 (instead of 11. 0-0) 11...Nd5 12. Nxd5 Qxd5, Black has lost TWO tempi: h2-h3 and 0-0. It is White to move, and it is not clear to me that Black can stir up enough play against White's center before he gets bashed on the queenside. Certainly Black must very soon play ...f6; what else is there?
It seems to me that 14. h3! Bf5!, more than 14. b4, is critical for Black's system. I would be very curious to know what anyone thinks about Black's chances here.