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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) U.S. Credit Bailout (Read 32859 times)
drkodos
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #37 - 10/06/08 at 18:56:17
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Markovich wrote on 10/06/08 at 13:04:25:


It certainly is not true that an imprudent style of life of Americans in general had anything to do with the credit crisis.  The vast majority of Americans live within their means.



I am not sure this is so.  I am not saying it is true or not, just that how can we actually know?

I believe many, perhaps not most, but a great many do actually try living beyond their means.  Why else all the adverts on TV/Radio/news print for all those that need "debt relief?"

I would argue that the sub-prime mortgage crisis is compelling evidence of people trying to live beyond their means.  That, and people foolishly believing a bubble would continue to expand, while not even recognizing it as a bubble, has led a great many individuals to get into a credit crunch.

The lending banks are in trouble because loans are not being paid off.  I believe it is this simple.  Million dollar homes are going into foreclosure, as well as "starters" because people cannot repay these loans.  If this is not evidence of people overreaching economically, what is?

I think an honest and intense scrutiny would reveal an unhealthy combination of personal greed and access to cheap money on each and every level of the economic hierarchy.

 
  

I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission.
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Markovich
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #36 - 10/06/08 at 13:04:25
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Antillian wrote on 10/02/08 at 12:03:05:
I listened to Bill Clinton speaking yesterday. I must say that Bill Clinton laid out the link to the cause of the common man  and made a far more effective case for the Bailout....ahem.....err.....I mean Financial Rescue Act.....than the treasury secretary, the President, or any of the two Presidential  candidates.


The problem of these justifications, however, is that they blame the American people in general, whereas only some people actually took mortgage loans during the past few years, and still fewer are in default.  The criticism remains that the bailout transfers costs caused by only a few to the public at large.

It certainly is not true that an imprudent style of life of Americans in general had anything to do with the credit crisis.  The vast majority of Americans live within their means.

I think that a much better solution to the national credit crisis would have been for the public to purchase equity shares in those institutions needing more capitalization.  This would appropriately have penalized present share holders, by diluting the value of their shares.  And the public would have obtained assets in approximately equal value to its expenditure.

I think it's rather stunning that neither Bernanke nor Paulsen, about whom it is endlessly said that they are smart, never came up with this idea, particularly since it has been adopted from time to time in other countries.  If one grants that these men are smart, is appears that each considered an outright handout to Wall Street fat cats more desirable than an equity purchase arrangement.

Fundamentally I think that a gun was held to the head of Congress.  There was a need to act quickly, and only the original proposal was on the table.  Congress is not an institution that could have drafted an alternative proposal in two months, let alone two weeks.

Personally if I were the next President I would ask for Bernanke's resignation.  But that is only a figure of speech. Actually if I personally ever became president, it would presuppose the desire of the American people to rewrite the constitution, abolish the states, and institute a socialist republic.
  

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Dink Heckler
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #35 - 10/03/08 at 23:20:57
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From: Minister of the Treasury Paulson
Subject: REQUEST FOR URGENT CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP

Dear American:

I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.

I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.

I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe.

This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.

Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.

Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson
  

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Willempie
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #34 - 10/02/08 at 15:15:51
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Dink Heckler wrote on 10/02/08 at 14:26:52:
Thanks, MNb and Willempie. 
I suspect that easy lending and speculation also play their part as well  Wink

IT is not as easy to get a mortgage as it is elsewhere...
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Dink Heckler
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #33 - 10/02/08 at 14:26:52
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Thanks, MNb and Willempie. 
I suspect that easy lending and speculation also play their part as well  Wink

(btw if anyone is in a wonkish mood, time series and cross-sectional data on housing affordability metrics can be found on the OECD website; look in the latest Economic Outlook, Statisticsl Summaries)

  

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Antillian
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #32 - 10/02/08 at 12:03:05
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I listened to Bill Clinton speaking yesterday. I must say that Bill Clinton laid out the link to the cause of the common man  and made a far more effective case for the Bailout....ahem.....err.....I mean Financial Rescue Act.....than the treasury secretary, the President, or any of the two Presidential  candidates.
  

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Willempie
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #31 - 10/02/08 at 08:52:50
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Dink Heckler wrote on 10/01/08 at 15:05:33:
As an aside, if you look at various largely uncontroversial measures of house price valuation (price / income, price /rent etc), the Netherlands looks like one of the most overvalued residential property markets around (along with the usual suspects, Spain, Australia, UK, Ireland*). No idea why this should be the case...any insights?

* USA has seemingly already made a big chunk of it's adjustment.

There are a couple of reasons that house prices are high here:
-You get a tax deduction for your paid mortgage interest. If I pay 5% I effectively pay 3.75% (by approximation it is dependent on other factors such as income)
-Building is too slow
-Job distribution. Most jobs are in the Randstadso houses there are way expensive. If you live further away it will take a lot of travel time. I used to go 100 km to my work but it took me over 2 hours usually to get there.

The main culprit however is the rental housing market. If your income is below a certain point you get social rent, which is quite cheap. If your income rises above you keep that rent (it is fixed to the house, not to the person). Those people usually dont go to another house due to the reasons below.

If you didnt rent before (or move house), but are above that point you get a choice of renting the normal way (which is even more overpriced than the buying market) or to buy. I got that choice myself and to rent a 2 room appartment it would cost me over 700 euros a month. So I bought a 3 room appartment which costed me around 500 a month. All this causes a big demand on property in the lower levels (up to 300k). This then trickles down to the higher levels as people who sell their house make a big profit and can buy in a higher category causing that demand to go up as well.

Simply put if nothing is done about the social renting this whole situation will become a major problem.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #30 - 10/02/08 at 00:48:15
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Dink Heckler wrote on 10/01/08 at 15:05:33:
As an aside, if you look at various largely uncontroversial measures of house price valuation (price / income, price /rent etc), the Netherlands looks like one of the most overvalued residential property markets around (along with the usual suspects, Spain, Australia, UK, Ireland*). No idea why this should be the case...any insights?


No. But it made my emigration to Suriname possible in 2000! I had expected - and I was not the only one - a decrease of the house prices after I left. I am a bit clueless why it hasn't happened. At the other hand I do know why they rose in the 90's. In that decade many citizens, due to high conjuncture, had a lot of money to spend. The Dutch like to save money; with their pensions and insurances secured bying a house looked like a good long term investment.
Anyhow, those Dutchies who have bought a house the last 15 years generally are fully capable of paying their mortgages, so there are no forced sells to spoil the market. But this, if I understand a little of economics, is not explanation enough.
  

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Dink Heckler
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #29 - 10/01/08 at 15:05:33
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As an aside, if you look at various largely uncontroversial measures of house price valuation (price / income, price /rent etc), the Netherlands looks like one of the most overvalued residential property markets around (along with the usual suspects, Spain, Australia, UK, Ireland*). No idea why this should be the case...any insights?

* USA has seemingly already made a big chunk of it's adjustment.
  

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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #28 - 09/30/08 at 22:58:41
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trw wrote on 09/30/08 at 21:06:36:
I have to say the thing that worries me the most is the deficit. This administrations total indifference to racking up debt certainly hasn't helped the situation we're in now.


Here I agree and I can't help noticing it's the neocon administration that's responsible for this part. I had expected that this deficit would lead to a gradual decline of the American economy, but here I was obviously wrong.

trw wrote on 09/30/08 at 21:06:36:

Though as an offtopic question, how much of the financial situation is really made worse by unfounded panic? "This is the greatest crisis since The Great Depression!!!"


I have read this too when The Netherlands suffered from a crisis about 4, 5 years ago. It is simply not true. I can witness that between 1975 andl 1990, when I was still a teenager/student, the crisis was much worse than now. And even that one was by far not as serious as The Great Depression.
Fortunately unfounded panic usually peters out when it's unfounded indeed. How many Black Mondays/............./Fridays have there been in the last three decades?
  

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trw
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #27 - 09/30/08 at 21:06:36
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I have to say the thing that worries me the most is the deficit. This administrations total indifference to racking up debt certainly hasn't helped the situation we're in now.

Though as an offtopic question, how much of the finnacial situation is really made worse by unfounded panic? "This is the greatest crisis since The Great Depression!!!"
  
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Dink Heckler
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #26 - 09/30/08 at 15:19:55
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I don't think 'we the people' come out smelling of roses either. The flipside of the financiers' asset binge was the people's liability binge. A chunk of this went into speculation, and another big chunk into consumption (consumption / GDP has been trending upwards these last few years after being remarkably stable for a long time). We the people run a chronic fiscal deficit and current account deficit, but so far have never had to pay the bill. Well, here's the bill. No problem, we'll just dig into our savings...D'oh!! 

I don't have any particular dog in this fight; to me it's all grist to the mill, part of life's rich pageant. I'm not American, am heavily in cash, have no debt. But I do think that before Main Street grabs for the pitchforks and flaming torches, people need to take a long hard look in the mirror.
  

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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #25 - 09/30/08 at 12:46:56
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Dink Heckler wrote on 09/30/08 at 08:08:25:

MNb, I think you are looking in the wrong place. Trade flows are no longer all that illuminating in this context, since flows on the capital account tend to dominate, not neccesarily because of their size, although this is often the case, but more because of their volatility relative to much stodgier trade flows. And the biggest linkage of all is the linkages in risk aversion, which don't even depend on any cross-border flows at all, but manifest themselves in high correlations between the returns on risk assets across countires and sectors.

The Eurozone should be relatively well insulated due to the absence of major macroeconomic imbalances, apart from the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) and Ireland. However, they do face certain headwinds: the aforementioned linkages and correlations, a strong currency, minimal fiscal and monetary stimulus, and highly leveraged banks...and swine flu*

*The PIGS have never found an alternative to their historical adiction to inflation and competitive devaluations. Their entry into the Eurozone has removed this option, while causing large misallocations of resources due to inappropriately low interest rates.


Well, me not being a pro am not in the position to contradict this except on one point. The Euro has been strong since five years or so and the European Market hardly has felt consequences. Btw last few months it has been on the decline somewhat (about 1 : 1,4 iso 1 : 1,5)I do not state that the EU is free from economical problems of course. I already mentioned the energy supply, which is very fundamental. I could add the long term problems with the pension funds in the PIGS plus France, which is another unsolved issue. These problems are not directly linked to the American crisis.

Markovich wrote on 09/30/08 at 12:42:23:
That would be painful, but at least the pain would be concentrated among those who caused the problem.


And this is exactly the reason why I am opposed to the bail-out plan. But as Keynes once said: if I get new information my decisions will change.

I have just read my Surinamese newspaper. On the front page: more bad news, the price of oil is going down. Really, I love economics for its contradictions. For months I have read how the rising oil prices have damaged European economy. Now they fall again (wth 10%! in one day and with 35% since June 11th) I again have to worry? Some economists are addicted to the Apocalyps.
Also in De Ware Tijd there is a full page with an analysis of the crisis. Unfortunately the source is not mentioned and I am pretty sure the paper did not make it itself. The conclusion for The Netherlands - and as always I assume also for the rest of the EU, with the possible exception of GB - is that the benefits in the form of lower oil and food prices are bigger than the consequences for the financial system.
Now I don't want to imply that the current crisis isn't serious, it is. But I don't see any good in presenting the problems bigger than they are in reality.
« Last Edit: 09/30/08 at 15:09:31 by MNb »  

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Markovich
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #24 - 09/30/08 at 12:42:23
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Dink Heckler makes an important point.  Credit is drying up.  But I think the main reason this is happening is that everyone is waiting to see what Congress does.

I believe that if Congress did nothing, which would probably be the wisest course, this would eventuate in a fairly rapid restructuring of the U.S. financial industry.  That would be painful, but at least the pain would be concentrated among those who caused the problem.  In any case, credit would flow again, though at an increased cost.  When business people talk about shortages, they don't mean that something can't be obtained, but only that they can't get it at a price they would like to pay.

It's important to recognize that investment banks aren't sources of wealth, only intermediaries between wealth and definite investment opportunities.  So far as I am aware, there is no shortage of either in the United States.
  

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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #23 - 09/30/08 at 12:38:37
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Smyslov_Fan wrote on 09/30/08 at 05:26:56:

BTW, this is more than an academic issue for me.  The school I have been teaching at and that has been in business for about 15 years had to close today (forever) due to a lack of available credit.  

If you know of anyone looking for a Social Studies/Language Arts teacher of middle school through college prep, let me know!


This is more than sad. So I assume your school was a private institution. Is that normal in the American educational system?
The only thing I can offer is a job as teacher English at our secondary school. Moengo being a remote place my school has a lack of qualified teachers so your job is guaranteed, like mine. The only snag is your salary - about US$ 400 a month, paid in weak SRD's. I do have a house immediately available to you (the reason for that I don't want to explain here). So if you still feel like, catch a plain. School begins Thursday.
  

The book had the effect good books usually have: it made the stupids more stupid, the intelligent more intelligent and the other thousands of readers remained unchanged.
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