Dink Heckler wrote on 09/30/08 at 08:08:25:
MNb, I think you are looking in the wrong place. Trade flows are no longer all that illuminating in this context, since flows on the capital account tend to dominate, not neccesarily because of their size, although this is often the case, but more because of their volatility relative to much stodgier trade flows. And the biggest linkage of all is the linkages in risk aversion, which don't even depend on any cross-border flows at all, but manifest themselves in high correlations between the returns on risk assets across countires and sectors.
The Eurozone should be relatively well insulated due to the absence of major macroeconomic imbalances, apart from the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) and Ireland. However, they do face certain headwinds: the aforementioned linkages and correlations, a strong currency, minimal fiscal and monetary stimulus, and highly leveraged banks...and swine flu*
*The PIGS have never found an alternative to their historical adiction to inflation and competitive devaluations. Their entry into the Eurozone has removed this option, while causing large misallocations of resources due to inappropriately low interest rates.
Well, me not being a pro am not in the position to contradict this except on one point. The Euro has been strong since five years or so and the European Market hardly has felt consequences. Btw last few months it has been on the decline somewhat (about 1 : 1,4 iso 1 : 1,5)I do not state that the EU is free from economical problems of course. I already mentioned the energy supply, which is very fundamental. I could add the long term problems with the pension funds in the PIGS plus France, which is another unsolved issue. These problems are not directly linked to the American crisis.
Markovich wrote on 09/30/08 at 12:42:23:
That would be painful, but at least the pain would be concentrated among those who caused the problem.
And this is exactly the reason why I am opposed to the bail-out plan. But as Keynes once said: if I get new information my decisions will change.
I have just read my Surinamese newspaper. On the front page: more bad news, the price of oil is going down. Really, I love economics for its contradictions. For months I have read how the rising oil prices have damaged European economy. Now they fall again (wth 10%! in one day and with 35% since June 11th) I again have to worry? Some economists are addicted to the Apocalyps.
Also in De Ware Tijd there is a full page with an analysis of the crisis. Unfortunately the source is not mentioned and I am pretty sure the paper did not make it itself. The conclusion for The Netherlands - and as always I assume also for the rest of the EU, with the possible exception of GB - is that the benefits in the form of lower oil and food prices are bigger than the consequences for the financial system.
Now I don't want to imply that the current crisis isn't serious, it is. But I don't see any good in presenting the problems bigger than they are in reality.