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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) U.S. Credit Bailout (Read 32872 times)
MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #67 - 11/03/08 at 18:38:27
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I read:

Quote:
Ondanks de onrust in de financiële wereld groeit de Nederlandse economie volgend jaar met 0,4 procent.


Since when is this 0-growth? That Petrosjan-book remains safely on the shelf, next to your sample of LDZ's forthcoming work on 1.d4 e5. You'd rather hope that CPB will be proven wrong (a prediction of 1,25% next year  Tongue).
  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #66 - 11/03/08 at 15:01:21
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MNb wrote on 10/10/08 at 10:26:39:
Willempie wrote on 10/10/08 at 07:34:26:

We will talk in another year, but if the growth is near to 1% I will promise to play the Englund gambit and publish the analysis so that we will get the Willempie variation.


This is something I'm gonna remember.  Grin

OK, if the Dutch growth is 0% or lower I will play three corr games with the Caro-Kann (Capablanca and Panov ...Nc6) with the only goal to deprive my opponent of every possible fun.

http://www.nos.nl/nosjournaal/artikelen/2008/11/3/031108_nulgroei.html

Seems you can start dusting off your copy of "Black to play and draw" by T. Petrosjan with contributions of U. Andersson, P Leko and others and a foreword by V Kramnik. Wink
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #65 - 10/13/08 at 19:59:26
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btw, germany pays its banks 400 billions (400K Millions!!!) Euros.

Before it was stated like it was only the stupid americans, who had the crisis, now it's "us" too, really that amount equals almost the amount the usa paid in dollars ... I really have no imagination of such large sums ...
  
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #64 - 10/13/08 at 04:53:03
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Arthur Jensen: [bellowing] You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won't have it! Is that clear? You think you've merely stopped a business deal. That is not the case! The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back! It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity! It is ecological balance! You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multivariate, multinational dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today! And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and YOU...WILL...ATONE! 

Arthur Jensen: [calmly] Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale? You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those *are* the nations of the world today. What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state, Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do. We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable bylaws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime. And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that . . . perfect world . . . in which there's no war or famine, oppression or brutality. One vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock. All necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused. And I have chosen you, Mr. Beale, to preach this evangel. 

Howard Beale: Why me? 

Arthur Jensen: Because you're on television, dummy. Sixty million people watch you every night of the week, Monday through Friday. 

Howard Beale: I have seen the face of God. 

Arthur Jensen: You just might be right, Mr. Beale. 



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I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission.
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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #63 - 10/10/08 at 20:54:59
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trw wrote on 10/10/08 at 18:39:57:

This pretty much eliminates your entire argument that 'EU' stands alone.

This eliminates nothing. No European bank has fallen or even has used a government guarantee, something Mr.Volcker prefers to neglect. Fortunately we won't learn what had happened if the European governments had done nothing, a chance I wouldn't have liked to take. All European measures taken until now are preventive though, something we can't say of the Bush administration.

My argument consists of three points:
1. the European financial system will not fail;
2. there will be no negative economic growth;
3. the European recession - which I never have denied - has other causes than the American crisis.

There is nothing in that article that eliminates these points. This week I have wondered how many years of my life I have had to live with a European recession. I don't know exactly, but since 1975 there haven't been many years that the Dutch growth exceeded 3%.
I also repeat that comparing this crisis with the Great Depression is misleading. Finally your remark on isolationism is irrelevant. My argument is not in the first place that the European economy is isolated; my argument is that transatlantic trade is small compared to internal trade plus that the European economy is strong enough to stand this crisis without major problems - problems many people seem to like to present as big as possible. Economically speaking Europe is far less vulnerable than it was in 1929 except on one point.
Finally I regret that this crisis distracts from the real European problem: the supply of energy. If the EU doesn't find a solution we will experience a crisis in Europe to which this one completely pales - before I die.
None of this is addressed to in Mr.Volcker's analysis, because he understandably concentrates on the USA.
  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #62 - 10/10/08 at 18:39:57
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MNb wrote on 10/10/08 at 00:58:40:
Your third option is to say you don't know and abstain from any evaluation of this crisis. Nothing wrong with that.


While i'll accept the third option, because I don't know. I will still add some food for thought.

Quote:
First of all, there is now clear recognition that the problem is international, and international coordination and cooperation is both necessary and underway. The days of finger pointing and schadenfreude are over. The concerted reduction in central bank interest rates is one concrete manifestation of that fact.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360251805321773.html

This pretty much eliminates your entire argument that 'EU' stands alone. Of course this was never true in the first place as we live in a globalized economy. People said Germany/US etc stand alone in the Great Depression. They were wrong then as well. Isolationism is a thing of the past that is likely never to return.
  
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #61 - 10/10/08 at 13:59:14
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I'm bailing out of the bail out debate.



But first, I need you people to give me some money to do it.
  

I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission.
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #60 - 10/10/08 at 10:26:39
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Willempie wrote on 10/10/08 at 07:34:26:

We will talk in another year, but if the growth is near to 1% I will promise to play the Englund gambit and publish the analysis so that we will get the Willempie variation.


This is something I'm gonna remember.  Grin

OK, if the Dutch growth is 0% or lower I will play three corr games with the Caro-Kann (Capablanca and Panov ...Nc6) with the only goal to deprive my opponent of every possible fun.
« Last Edit: 10/10/08 at 15:22:28 by MNb »  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #59 - 10/10/08 at 07:34:26
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MNb wrote on 10/10/08 at 00:58:40:
Don't you think WW-I had to do something with this? And especially the fact it wasn't fought on American soil? In 30's British economy suffered from other problems as well, eg English products were simply more expensive than those of other countries.

No WW1 didnt have anything to do with that crisis. 
Note that I am not talking about the economy at a certain point, but about the long term effects of a mindset. FDR had his 100 days and the alphabet acts, which created a far more positive mindset (not a direct effect on the economy, one wouldnt want to be a farmer in the 30s), which in the long term made that hte American economy was able to up the production when demand was there.
Quote:

Finally you might learn something from comparing economical policies of different countries. The remarkable German recovery between 1933 and 1937 had a lot to do with the genius Hjalmar Schacht, who basically applied Keynesian theory. That Hermann Göring subsequently spoiled it is another story (Schacht was put in concentration camp, was trialed at Nürnberg and got an acquittal). I don't have to tell you about Colijn politics I hope? Neither have I to explain you the structural differences between the crisis of the 30's and this one?

Again, while Schacht had some very effective policies, the recovery was mainly due to the mindset. You could make another comparison if you take UK and Holland on one side and Scandinavia on the other, where similar measures were introduced, but somehow they were only effective in the latter.
Quote:

In short, it is way too superficial to attribute the crisis of the 30's to mood or mindset mainly. Sure economics isn't an exact science, but there are a few objective measurable indicators indeed.
Note you make a nice detour again around a point I made before by questioning all the estimates. This time I'm gonna nail you. You have three options. Either you stick to you psychological principle and are more pessimistic than IMF. To convince me you'll have to bring up more arguments though.

Two answers: Yes I am more pessimistic, and No I dont think that the IMF has much more credibility in this case than the horoscope as they have no real idea what is happening. For starters the impact on the housing market is unknown, already it is turning into a buyer's market.

If you have read Asimov: They are trying to make psychohistory, but are starting at scratch. Wink
Quote:

Or you aren't and have to admit that this crisis is by far not as grave as the one of the 30's and even the one of 1975-1990. All other options mean that you logically contradict yourself. Don't make me conclude that you enjoy Armageddon fantasies like so many people these days and therefor prefer to neglect relevant information.  Tongue
Your third option is to say you don't know and abstain from any evaluation of this crisis. Nothing wrong with that.

I am certainly not talking a real crisis scenario. I think that there is/will be a crisis, but mainly on hte financial part and it will mainly show that all those nice analyses about predictions for the economy are mainly a complete waste of trees and bits. 
We will talk in another year, but if the growth is near to 1% I will promise to play the Englund gambit and publish the analysis so that we will get the Willempie variation.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #58 - 10/10/08 at 03:26:04
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I really didn't want to get dragged into this again, in part because I know when I am out of my depth.

But, MNb's assertion that WWI had something to do with the Depression more than a decade later is just bizarre.  I suppose that in the way that any major event has ripple effects for decades, WWI also had some effect on the US economy.  

But here's the kicker:  Between WWI and the Great Depression was the Roaring 20s.  Economic historians have picked through the rubble of the Great Depression and have come up with some great explanations for the economic and environmental catastrophe of the 1930s. The Great War does not figure prominently as a cause of the Depression in these histories   Wars do still appear to be good for the economy of the winners.  After WWII, the Cold War,and yes, WWI, the American economy boomed.

World War I did have a terrible economic impact on continental Europe, but the United States thrived after the war.  In fact, the economy survived despite Washington scandals and corporate greed that boggle the mind even today.  

(I'm going to let others handle the myth of a libertarian marketplace and Adam Smith's invisible hand.)
  
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MNb
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #57 - 10/10/08 at 00:58:40
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Willempie wrote on 10/09/08 at 18:44:53:

It is. Just look at the 1930s. In US even though the economy stayed down the mood went upwards. In the UK the opposite happened. The former could directly act when demand suddenly went up, the latter couldnt.


Don't you think WW-I had to do something with this? And especially the fact it wasn't fought on American soil? In 30's British economy suffered from other problems as well, eg English products were simply more expensive than those of other countries.
Finally you might learn something from comparing economical policies of different countries. The remarkable German recovery between 1933 and 1937 had a lot to do with the genius Hjalmar Schacht, who basically applied Keynesian theory. That Hermann Göring subsequently spoiled it is another story (Schacht was put in concentration camp, was trialed at Nürnberg and got an acquittal). I don't have to tell you about Colijn politics I hope? Neither have I to explain you the structural differences between the crisis of the 30's and this one?
In short, it is way too superficial to attribute the crisis of the 30's to mood or mindset mainly. Sure economics isn't an exact science, but there are a few objective measurable indicators indeed.
Note you make a nice detour again around a point I made before by questioning all the estimates. This time I'm gonna nail you. You have three options. Either you stick to you psychological principle and are more pessimistic than IMF. To convince me you'll have to bring up more arguments though.
Or you aren't and have to admit that this crisis is by far not as grave as the one of the 30's and even the one of 1975-1990. All other options mean that you logically contradict yourself. Don't make me conclude that you enjoy Armageddon fantasies like so many people these days and therefor prefer to neglect relevant information.  Tongue
Your third option is to say you don't know and abstain from any evaluation of this crisis. Nothing wrong with that.
  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #56 - 10/09/08 at 18:44:53
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MNb wrote on 10/09/08 at 10:33:18:
Willempie wrote on 10/09/08 at 07:44:08:
Alternatively dont you think that some 120000 people having 1.6 billion in IceSave and who wont get it back from them, wont have an effect on consumer behaviour?

I hadn't read this yet when I typed my last post. Hadn't Iceland nationalised all banks last weeks? So weren't these savings guaranteed? Not that that makes me enthusiastic. And 120 000 people, which percentage of the working population is that? So how big you think that impact will be?

I have no idea, but the population is 16 million, so that is already 3/4 percent. Add to that that these are in general people with work or a good pension and the impact is a bit bigger. 
The thing is that Iceland did nationalise but the state's coffers are dwarved by the virtual ones of their banks. And these werent national savings (Most countries wont guarantuee savings of foreigners).
Quote:

Concerning the psychological stuff - on the short term I think you're right. But how long will this panic last? How long will it last before consumer faith is at least partly restored?
Also note that I assume a worst case scenario. I look at the most pessimistic predictions. As I wrote before, these are 0,2% for Europe and 0,5% for The Netherlands. And you know the advantage of a worst case scenario, don't you?

That is the 1 million dollar question. How good are these estimates when expert comments are proven bullocks the day after? Eg US Fed lowered interest whenever they could and it was praised. Then when the bubble blew the interest was too low and they were scorned. Now they lowered it again and they are praised again. 
However none of these praises and scorns are backed by anything remotely scientific. They just go along. When something works they will repeat it. It is just trial and error and the ones with the best story behind the trial and error are hailed as experts. In a sense they are like 1400 players who have never opened a book or analysed their games.
Quote:

There is another psychological effect to be taken into account. When it comes to economics people are herd-animals; that's something that never stops to amaze me. So in days like these all interpretations are overly pessimistic. I've seen that before; this pessimistic mood can change quite drastically again. For the long term - and that's what I'm interested in - the role of psychology is not that important.

It is. Just look at the 1930s. In US even though the economy stayed down the mood went upwards. In the UK the opposite happened. The former could directly act when demand suddenly went up, the latter couldnt. It is not just the mood it is also the mindset. When people rely too much on the government you can end up with real long term problems. Illustrated perfectly by a country like France, where growth is really hampered by unions' demands. Or look at the US banks who just assumed they would be bailed out by the gov and acted accordingly.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #55 - 10/09/08 at 15:48:57
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Antillian wrote on 10/08/08 at 17:11:01:
I am puzzled when persons blame "greed" for the current financial crisis. Isn't greed ultimately critical to making capitalism successful. One reason that capitalism is so much more successful than socialism is that greed trumps altruism every time. Greed works, let's face it. We all look out for numero uno. Studies by social scientists show that most persons would steal if they were convinced 100% they could get away with it.  

Surely the problem is not greed, but lack of accountability, transparency and oversight. We want people in a capitalist society to be greedy, to strive as much as possible to make as much money as possible. That is how wealth is created and propagated. However, rules have to be in place, and they have to be systems in place to catch persons who break the rules, and consequences for the guilty. I suggest that it is all of the latter that was missing and not the former. Sorry to sound so dark, but it is the reality. Greed is good. 


We're getting into some deep and uncertain stuff here, but with supreme confidence in my powers of political economic perception, I will proceed.

From the point of view of Adam Smith and his many more recent followers, you're right.  This is straight out of Milton Friedman, and it's precisely what I was fed by my most of my professors in graduate school.

My rejoinder is, this theory proposes a model of "free" markets regulated in the "public" interest.  Somehow markets exist; are "free" in their natural state or in some imagined primordial state; and produce efficient outcomes so long as no agents are big enough that their individual buying and selling influences prices.  Government regulation may be necessary in the "public" interest, to remedy inefficiencies, as when some agents are big, or when there are externalities; and to prevent fraud.  But government is assumed to be a neutral arbiter in the "public" interest, and in principle, "that government is best which governs least."  

The problems that I have with this model are (1) that it proposes a false distinction between markets and the state and (2) that it supposes that there exists a single, homogeneous "public" interest in which it is possible for the state to act.  

As to (1), markets and the state are really the same thing.  Not only do markets not precede the state, but they are caused by state: you cannot have a market without a powerful state to maintain security, enforce contracts, and to define a host of regulations that govern trade.  We may say for example that NYSE or CME or NYMEX are largely self-governing institutions, but that is only because the state is willing to delegate its power to "private" exchange administrators, who in all but name are agents of the state. 

Historically, markets vanished from Europe with the fall of Rome, a powerful state that fostered markets throughout its territories, and it was only many hundreds of years later that they began to be re-established, in precise parallel with the re-establishment of effective state power.  They first re-emerged in various city-states; they expanded with the convergence of these into nation-states.  Indeed, the emergence of nation-states and that of national markets are pretty much the same thing.  In those days, no one ever dreamt of a "free" market and would have been laughed at if he had proposed the idea.  It was taken for granted that markets were organized to benefit some people more than others, and it was your choice if you wanted to exchange goods there. But as there were none of the "natural," "free" markets that many people suppose to have existed primordially, it was a choice between highly regulated trade and no trade at all. 

Today it is substantially the same, it is only that an ideology has arisen that supposes the existence of "free and unfettered markets," which is an unreal possibility.  If you want to participate in a free and unfettered market, the closest thing you will find is the drug market down on your nearest urban street corner.  But if you transact in that market, you will very quickly discover that where the government has refused to establish regulation, other powerful agents have established it.  The government has ceded its authority on the pretext that these markets don't exist; but they do exist and, like all markets, they require strong governing authority.  So-called "weak regulation" is simply another example of regulation, in this case favoring those who would like to do what might otherwise have been prohibited -- it is not the absence of regulation.

Now as to (2), since markets simply must have strong regulation to function and even to exist, it is merely a question in whose interests this regulation will be.  You may have in your head a model of democratic political economy, where governments rule rationally in an objective public interest, enforced by the will of an enlightened electorate.  The model I have in my head is that of capitalist political economy, where governments rule, case by case, chiefly in the interests of agents wealthy enough and therefore powerful enough to influence the political process.  Because almost anything can be argued to be in the public interest ("We here in Louisiana should not allow the sale of milk from Mississippi, because we can't be sure of it's purity,"), it is futile to think that any such thing as a public interest can be objectively identified.  Regular attempts to do so are invariably in service of one group's interest or another.  In every political decision there are winners and losers, and it is only a question of who they will be.  

My conclusion is that there is no such thing as a free market as conceived by Adam Smith or Milton Friedman, and no such thing as an impartial state.  What this brings about under capitalism is regulation primarily for the benefit of the wealthy, with some exceptions made necessary by the political struggles of the working class, depending on how successful it has been.  
« Last Edit: 10/09/08 at 18:42:33 by Markovich »  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #54 - 10/09/08 at 14:50:47
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trw wrote on 10/08/08 at 23:32:55:
Markovich wrote on 10/08/08 at 13:19:35:
It really was a failure of leadership of those who, thanks to a quirk in the U.S. Constitution, got control of the Executive in 1992 without having a popular majority, raided the treasury, and effectively made vast disbursements to the rich.  Also they decided to fund a major war entirely by borrowing.  Was it folly for the "conservative" base to buy this snake oil?  Yes, but even right-wing idiots have a right to believe that their political leaders have their best interests at heart.  The sad truth has been, as continually pointed out by the left, that it was fundamentally a scam.  These "leaders" never intended to lead the people, only to rob them.


You mean 2000 right?


Yes, thanks.

And Dink, yes again, I think we largely agree.  There is an interesting piece in the NY Times today, reconsidering Greenspan's policies in light of what happened.
  

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Re: U.S. Credit Bailout
Reply #53 - 10/09/08 at 10:33:18
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Willempie wrote on 10/09/08 at 07:44:08:
Alternatively dont you think that some 120000 people having 1.6 billion in IceSave and who wont get it back from them, wont have an effect on consumer behaviour?

I hadn't read this yet when I typed my last post. Hadn't Iceland nationalised all banks last weeks? So weren't these savings guaranteed? Not that that makes me enthusiastic. And 120 000 people, which percentage of the working population is that? So how big you think that impact will be?
Concerning the psychological stuff - on the short term I think you're right. But how long will this panic last? How long will it last before consumer faith is at least partly restored?
Also note that I assume a worst case scenario. I look at the most pessimistic predictions. As I wrote before, these are 0,2% for Europe and 0,5% for The Netherlands. And you know the advantage of a worst case scenario, don't you?
There is another psychological effect to be taken into account. When it comes to economics people are herd-animals; that's something that never stops to amaze me. So in days like these all interpretations are overly pessimistic. I've seen that before; this pessimistic mood can change quite drastically again. For the long term - and that's what I'm interested in - the role of psychology is not that important.
  

The book had the effect good books usually have: it made the stupids more stupid, the intelligent more intelligent and the other thousands of readers remained unchanged.
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