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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) C00-C19: French BAD for + 2600 less bad for -2500 (Read 38279 times)
Smyslov_Fan
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #49 - 01/13/10 at 03:42:55
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As I said earlier, I remain a francophile (both in chess and in culture).  The question for me isn't whether the French gives Black a reasonable game, but whether it's likely to be popular at the highest levels any time soon.   

I glanced at some recent top-flight tournaments and while the French was played, the Caro-Kann was played more often!  To me, that shows that the French is less popular than it was a decade ago.  There are still some French practitioners out there, but there aren't any real champions who defend the French Honour on a regular basis (at least that I can think of).  In order for the French to become popular again, we need a Morozevich, Vachier-Lagrave, Carlsen or some other very strong (and preferably young) player to use it regularly.  In the past, Bareev and others carried the torch.  Is there someone to carry it now?
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #48 - 01/13/10 at 01:00:00
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Ok, sorry for my bad english, i'm just a stupid french Wink
I think if you look at the very top level that the french defence give some big problems to white : remember Ivantchouk beating Kasparov with Winawer and also Svidler and Topalov at Sofia with the Classical. Look the results of Morozevitch against Topalov, Svidler, Anand and Adams, they are incredibly good.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #47 - 12/17/09 at 13:51:26
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Antillian wrote on 12/17/09 at 12:54:49:
knightmare wrote on 12/17/09 at 11:46:48:
Smyslov_Fan wrote on 12/16/09 at 16:29:50:
I am a huge fan of the French, but Knightmare's list of games played in the French rather makes the case for the other side.

If those are all the games he could find in the surplus that we've had in the last few months, then it's clear to me that the French is certainly not as popular as it once was.  Maybe that will change, but I don't see why it will based on knightmare's list.


I just checked these two tourneys. It is simply enough to falsify the two statements, as it proves that
a) It is played by GM's well beyond the 2.600 border. It is even played by GM's beyond the 2.700 border
b) The results are close to 50%. Which simply is about 5% better than the overall average of black's score.


The first two statements may well be correct. But the last statement is questionable. The sample size is simply too small to draw those kind of conclusions. 

Don't get be wrong, I don't doubt the soundness of the French. But this particular attempt to prove it statistically is ?!




Well ... it all began with percentage scores  from a db without the number of games. Then followed someone "arguing" on 3 games. The next step was to post scores of single players. Players that use the french too. 
Dont' get me wrong, but isn't this - compared to the things mentioned above - a real giant step towards solidity (though you're right that n=2 is completely ridiculous)?

I
  
ELO 2060. Corr.: 2190. Which casts doubts if I ever knew what I was doing. At least on the Board.
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #46 - 12/17/09 at 12:54:49
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knightmare wrote on 12/17/09 at 11:46:48:
Smyslov_Fan wrote on 12/16/09 at 16:29:50:
I am a huge fan of the French, but Knightmare's list of games played in the French rather makes the case for the other side.

If those are all the games he could find in the surplus that we've had in the last few months, then it's clear to me that the French is certainly not as popular as it once was.  Maybe that will change, but I don't see why it will based on knightmare's list.


I just checked these two tourneys. It is simply enough to falsify the two statements, as it proves that
a) It is played by GM's well beyond the 2.600 border. It is even played by GM's beyond the 2.700 border
b) The results are close to 50%. Which simply is about 5% better than the overall average of black's score.


The first two statements may well be correct. But the last statement is questionable. The sample size is simply too small to draw those kind of conclusions. 

Don't get be wrong, I don't doubt the soundness of the French. But this particular attempt to prove it statistically is ?!


  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #45 - 12/17/09 at 11:46:48
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Smyslov_Fan wrote on 12/16/09 at 16:29:50:
I am a huge fan of the French, but Knightmare's list of games played in the French rather makes the case for the other side.

If those are all the games he could find in the surplus that we've had in the last few months, then it's clear to me that the French is certainly not as popular as it once was.  Maybe that will change, but I don't see why it will based on knightmare's list.


I just checked these two tourneys. It is simply enough to falsify the two statements, as it proves that
a) It is played by GM's well beyond the 2.600 border. It is even played by GM's beyond the 2.700 border
b) The results are close to 50%. Which simply is about 5% better than the overall average of black's score.
  
ELO 2060. Corr.: 2190. Which casts doubts if I ever knew what I was doing. At least on the Board.
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #44 - 12/16/09 at 16:29:50
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I am a huge fan of the French, but Knightmare's list of games played in the French rather makes the case for the other side.

If those are all the games he could find in the surplus that we've had in the last few months, then it's clear to me that the French is certainly not as popular as it once was.  Maybe that will change, but I don't see why it will based on knightmare's list.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #43 - 12/16/09 at 16:05:01
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Lets have a reality-check of the statment. 
London Chess Classics.
French played by:
- Nakamura. 2 games. 50% No loss.
- Ni Hua 2 games. 75% No loss.

Pono played it at the world cup. No loss.
Vitiugov, Laznicka, Navara, So, Pelletier, Meier, Akobjan, Shulman, Zuo Weiqui, Volkov, Hou Yifan, and others too. 
After excluding round 1 (big elo differences) I found 7 white wins, 5 black wins, rest draws.

So: It is played by the heavyweights, and the results are - quite - ok. Case closed
  
ELO 2060. Corr.: 2190. Which casts doubts if I ever knew what I was doing. At least on the Board.
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #42 - 11/13/09 at 03:42:31
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Nyctalop wrote on 07/17/09 at 18:16:27:
Personally, the French never game me much trouble as white, it's not even drawish like the CK or the dreaded Petroff, it just gives white  very nice play and initiative.

I was looking through chessgames.com at the games of Victor Korchnoi in the French and saw some pretty short wins by white, especially by strong 1.e4 players like Kasparov, Anand and Morozevich.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1220562

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1005713

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1266342

Those games certainly create the impression that on the highest of chess levels, black must play very accurately just to survive out of the opening without getting mated.


I don't really know if these games prove that.  I don't know the second and third games, but in the first one, in the game against Kasparov, Korchnoi blunders on move 8... Nc6.  If he just plays g6 there, he's not getting mated for a while.  It basically shows that if you blunder against Kasparov he's going to crush you.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #41 - 08/18/09 at 13:57:02
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Good point - Gurevich was outclassed a bit in that match, although the ugly way he was made to look like a child in that game was a bit off-putting. I agree with you about the other opening choices being a big influence.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #40 - 08/18/09 at 10:13:28
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Keano wrote on 08/17/09 at 10:43:43:
I wish that were only true, however at the stratospheric levels of 2650+ or 2700 I have the feeling my beloved French may not be as Khalifman puts it "even a fully correct" opening - as I said before its irrelevant for the rest of us, but look at the way expert Mikhail Gurevich was made to grovel against Leko in the candidates - that particular agony of suffering a hopeless bad bishop ending doesnt happen to him against lesser mortals.

Gurevich prolly would have suffered in that match regardless of what he played. It is not like he is a young rising star Wink
Still my feeling is that the problem is not that the french is in trouble, I think that other openigns currently are better at reaching a specific goal (for the patzers at 2600+): for a draw go fot the CK (in particular in Swiss) or Marshall/Petrov and if you want to play for a win go for one of the sicilian lines. In the French you can't really force either, but white can (going for a draw with eg the exchange, going for a win with 3.Nc3 and going for two results with 3.Nd2). The Rubinstein may be a good way to achieve a draw, but I think it is slightly worse than analogous CK lines.
  
If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #39 - 08/18/09 at 10:10:57
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Keano wrote on 08/18/09 at 08:19:24:
TN wrote on 08/18/09 at 07:14:47:
Please show me the 'refutation' you speak of. If this opening isn't 'fully correct', then surely proving a significant advantage for White will be trivial. 

Obviously I would need to reveal my analyses of the entire French complex to prove that Black equalises, but a) this takes too long, b) I don't have time and c) would probably be better for another thread.


a) there is no refutation, and achieving an advantage is not trivial. The "correctness" of the French is more of an abstract thought for most of us, and you only have to look at Khalifmans attempts to get advantage against the French to realise how rich the opening is and how complex it is for White to implement his initiative.

b) you cant be serious about "proof" that the French equalizes... 


I'm not. Chess is too complicated to be able to prove anything in the opening nowadays, with the exception of highly specific variations.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #38 - 08/18/09 at 08:19:24
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TN wrote on 08/18/09 at 07:14:47:
Please show me the 'refutation' you speak of. If this opening isn't 'fully correct', then surely proving a significant advantage for White will be trivial. 

Obviously I would need to reveal my analyses of the entire French complex to prove that Black equalises, but a) this takes too long, b) I don't have time and c) would probably be better for another thread.


a) there is no refutation, and achieving an advantage is not trivial. The "correctness" of the French is more of an abstract thought for most of us, and you only have to look at Khalifmans attempts to get advantage against the French to realise how rich the opening is and how complex it is for White to implement his initiative.

b) you cant be serious about "proof" that the French equalizes... 
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #37 - 08/18/09 at 07:14:47
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Please show me the 'refutation' you speak of. If this opening isn't 'fully correct', then surely proving a significant advantage for White will be trivial. 

Obviously I would need to reveal my analyses of the entire French complex to prove that Black equalises, but a) this takes too long, b) I don't have time and c) would probably be better for another thread.
  
All our dreams come true if we have the courage to pursue them.
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #36 - 08/17/09 at 21:41:03
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Keano wrote on 08/17/09 at 10:43:43:
I wish that were only true, however at the stratospheric levels of 2650+ or 2700 I have the feeling my beloved French may not be as Khalifman puts it "even a fully correct" opening - as I said before its irrelevant for the rest of us, but look at the way expert Mikhail Gurevich was made to grovel against Leko in the candidates - that particular agony of suffering a hopeless bad bishop ending doesnt happen to him against lesser mortals.

Interesting also was that after Radjabov won this "brilliancy prize" (which was a disgraceful decision in itself) he nevertheless abandoned the French defence after this tournament - in fact I think he abandoned it during the tournament for the latter part.


Well, there are some 2700+ players who throw it in regularly:

Grischuk have been quite successful recently in the poisoned pawn Winawer. Remember, he even outplayed the 2700+ theory monster Dominguez. 2008-2009 he has scored 5 wins 5 draws and 1 loss in the French where the loss was a blitz game vs. Dominguez where he was better after the opening.

Kamsky also got a great position vs. Karjakin in the same PP variation, but blundered.

And he played the French vs. Topalov in their match. Not with success, but did he really lose those games in the opening?

Ivanchuk and Moro play the occasional French.

Other 2700+ players with at least 1 standard time black game since 2007:
Topalov, Mamedyarov, Nakamura, Polgar, Gelfand, Shirov, Ponomariov, Akopian, Alekseev, Bacrot, Vallejo...

I still think the French is problematic at 2600+. The statistics do not lie, it just helps you getting closer to the real truth. In fact, the statistics ARE the truth in this case, with some consideration for the sample variance which decreases the higher number of games.

But some top players seem to think it is good enough to surprise their opponents and get an advantage in the preparation.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #35 - 08/17/09 at 10:43:43
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I wish that were only true, however at the stratospheric levels of 2650+ or 2700 I have the feeling my beloved French may not be as Khalifman puts it "even a fully correct" opening - as I said before its irrelevant for the rest of us, but look at the way expert Mikhail Gurevich was made to grovel against Leko in the candidates - that particular agony of suffering a hopeless bad bishop ending doesnt happen to him against lesser mortals.

Interesting also was that after Radjabov won this "brilliancy prize" (which was a disgraceful decision in itself) he nevertheless abandoned the French defence after this tournament - in fact I think he abandoned it during the tournament for the latter part.
  
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