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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) C00-C19: French BAD for + 2600 less bad for -2500 (Read 38281 times)
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #64 - 02/24/10 at 20:47:57
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edit maybe all this info is already in thread, sorry for spamming you then.


This is a very interesting question! Is it signifcant the data if yes which alfa ?? Is the population normal distributed or is it skewed. If you could please give us the more import input value how many games is there in total and how many games is there in French is there at 2600+ and higher. If the total amont of games in any category is below 30 one could still draw conclusion but normally you would pay me 140 €/hour for that knowledge. which is not significant!!!. Watson wrote a whole lot of text on this 

http://www.chesspublishing.com/content/2/index.htm#adv

quite intresting, he is very good at french but in statistics I think I have an edge. Do you think Tony would allow Mr watson to send me an ebook c02 for Support in statistics? 

Of course I can analyse the data  myself but it would be nice if someone could supply the information of the different numbers of games.

Dean wrote on 07/16/09 at 16:43:49:
Here are some statistics of white's score from my DB:
Both players 1.e4          1.e4 e6
2700+          55.8%       60.6%
2600+          57.1%       60.7%
2500-2600    54.6%       54.8%
2400-2500    54.7%       55.3%
2300-2400    54.3%       54.7%

...
more important data 

....



in general yóu could see a lot of this type of information After 5 games black is 80% and so on This data is worth nothing at all! Which is clear to eevery good chessplayer but not to chessbase feature department who is implementing this cool one. If the number of games after 15. Rb1 is less then 30 then crappity smack that info. So one might argue will the engine Rybka improve? what Elo 3560? Sure it is possible to get real statistics on this. But they have to stop evaluating the way they do it. They are selling like 40000000 copies of the program for 30€ each and They build a model for evalutaion that is crap! Is there any game theory in engine??? No, but a lot of statistics. Until the fixed this or called me to fix it I could recomend "Robbolito" I do not know this but I think that is the strongest solid engine today, of course the price is 0€,  they refuse donate sign and is not giving you an accountnumber for sending them money.

If you cared to read until here here is a bonus for you: The best things in world is to expensive or free.
  

Sorry ladies first a game of chess then heavy analysis then entering your moves in chessbase THEN maybe  champagne if you listen to my ideas of 15. Qb3!!!
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #63 - 02/18/10 at 05:16:38
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I'm certainly not the level of most on this site, and I do love the French.  However, with the French Black both cedes space and gives himself a bad bishop.  The other main openings vs. 1.e4 (CK, Sicilian, 1...e5) don't make two obvious concessions like this.  This is all meta-theory, but if I could simply have all the best lines burned into my brain, I would not choose the French as my first defense to 1.e4.  Over the board is another matter...

Scott
  

"Behind every beautiful thing there's been some kind of pain"  - Bob Dylan
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #62 - 02/17/10 at 20:52:29
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In the latest French update, Watson opens his update by giving his own thoughts and opinions on the question asked in this thread:

John Watson on ChessPublishing Quote:
The first statistic that popped up is bad news for the French: With both opponents above 2700, the French scored 61%-39% for White (with a 44% drawing ratio, 11% less than the figure for all games), whereas 2700+ games in all openings had a 56%-44% ratio. Although this basically means that in a 20 games tournament Black would be only a point behind using the French instead of a generic opening, that is still quite significant, and the performance rating advantage for White is greater than White's normal advantage in the 2700+ database by 60 points, which is certainly nontrivial. The sample space was rather small, however, and this led me to wonder about the breakdown of these games. I have noticed for years that the elite players, who are frequently involved in closed events, have had a tendency to use the 3...dxe4 versions of the French to try to draw as Black (and taking short draws). In fact, no less than 30% of these 2700+ games are in those variations, as opposed to merely 8% of 3...dxe4 Frenches in Megabase as a whole. And the results for those variations were poor, as with other passive lines; whereas a more dynamic line, the Winawer Variation, had a 54%-46% ratio and 42-point rating spread, both of which are actually better for Black than for all the games in this 2700+ database. I've noticed before that when these top players use an opening to draw as Black (like the 3...dxe4 systems), they indeed get more draws, but have a mediocre or worse performance. The Petroff Defence, for example, draws at a spectacular rate, but performs a bit worse for Black than the average defense at 2700+ levels (and worse than that at lower levels). You'd think a high percentage of draws would help Black's performance rating; but I think that 2700+ players using the Petroff tend to accept the draw when offered, even if they have a small advantage, whereas with White they are more inclined to play for a win. Similarly, players at 2700+ may need to employ the French with more ambition in order to improve its performance - in my opinion, it isn't a very good drawing weapon.

The news gets much better for Black in the 2600-2699 region, with of course a much larger sample space. Now using the French results in a 57%-43% spread, one point worse than in the 2600 database as a whole (equivalent to 1 more loss in 100 games), and because of the rating differential the performance rating spread is only 9 points lower than the average of other openings (having the Sicilian Defence in the pool accounts for more than this gap.) In fact, this performance is as good as or better than other 1 e4 defences. Curiously, using the example above, the Petroff does poorly at this level with 59%-41% and a 41 point performance rating deficit below normal, even with a very large sample of games. I suspect that the same people questioning the 'correctness' of the French wouldn't assess the Petroff in the same way.

Finally, for all games in Megabase, the French produces nearly identical results as the database as a whole, and does better than most individual 1 e4 openings (because the Sicilian at 51%-49%, and taking up over 20% of all chess games played, makes the others look bad!). That includes, for example, the traditional Ruy Lopez after 3...a6 4 Ba4, considered about as sound as it gets. I should also say that, as was pointed out in the Forum, the French does as well or better than major 1 d4 defences (usually about the same).

My conclusions: The French has indeed performed worse than the average opening at the 2700+ level; I think that's at least partially explicable by a skewed choice of variations (within a very small sample space), and not too worrisome. On the positive side, it does well in all other ranges (up to 2700). At any rate, I think it's fair to call the French 'correct'; if it isn't, then arguably nothing besides the Sicilian Defence is! Still, I haven't put a great deal of time into this investigation, so you may want to generate your own figures, use other criteria, or challenge the assumptions. Forum material, perhaps?


I tend to agree with this view that the French is no worse than most other chess openings. I don't like playing the French very frequently from Black's side , but that is more a matter of personal preference than objective merit.
  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #61 - 01/31/10 at 11:36:25
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C'mon guys! The French is a brilliant opening for 2500s and 2600s. Look at Morozevich and kortshnoi in action.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #60 - 01/15/10 at 03:16:31
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Another way to look at it is that it is to Black's advantage to have the public believe the French is unplayable. Fewer players playing it and overly confident White players will mean that White players will not expect it (and therefore not prepare for it) and may believe they can solve any problems Black poses over the board. Set and match to Black!

I play the Alekhine mostly and it always seems to be an unwelcome surprise to my opponents (few 2700+ players play that opening either) who may not be "booked up" for it or know the latest lines.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #59 - 01/14/10 at 21:21:25
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Mythos wrote on 01/14/10 at 20:20:22:


If 2700s are unwilling to face/solve the problems unique to the French, wouldn't it be more difficult for a much weaker player to solve those same problems over the board? 



No, because club players won't pose you any problems like the ones 2700's can pose. 2700's will be booked up and know strong lines, and will pose players of the Black pieces problems - but they'd do that in any opening. Strong players pose problems as White, that's life. Club players on the other hand, don't. Grin

If you feel uncomfortable defending those variations against higher rated players, it seems as though you need to study them more. 
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #58 - 01/14/10 at 21:18:28
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TonyRo wrote on 01/14/10 at 19:08:40:
I tend to agree with Markovich. If 1...e6 can just be declared somewhat bad for Black by a bunch of patzers like us, what hope does chess have period? Play what you like an don't worry about the popularity at the top level. Bent Larsen played all kinds of unpopular things and was one of the most successful tournament players ever. I can think of 3-4 masters in my area of Ohio alone that only play the French and are extraordinarily successful. 


[quote ]
Well ... it all began with percentage scores  from a db without the number of games. Then followed someone "arguing" on 3 games. The next step was to post scores of single players. Players that use the french too.
Dont' get me wrong, but isn't this - compared to the things mentioned above - a real giant step towards solidity (though you're right that n=2 is completely ridiculous)? 

[/quote]

The DB scores was of course taken from all games in the DB. Exactly how big it was is irrelevant, use your common sense.

I still think the French scores worse on 2600+ level. But the arguments are losing perspective and proportion in some recent posts here.

A quick reality check at DB stats again (see shredderchess.com, filtered at GM or IM level?):

1. e4 e6 has scored - 37 ELO

Compare for example with:

-38 ELO for 1. d4 Nf6
-39 ELO for 1. d4 d5
-41 ELO for 1. d4 e6

These differences are very small, both statistically and compared to the importance of how much you like it and score with it as an individual player.

I still think the Sicilian is the objectively best defence to 1. e4. It is both rich and fun and its score in the above sample is -30 ELO which is significantly better, but still not a very large difference.

One theoretical reason is probably that white loses a center pawn after the natural position opening 3. d4 cxd4.

If starting out with chess again I would have gone for the Sicilian but the French is reasonable and is probably the opening I have scored best with. This is probably mainly because I have studied it and played it for 20+ years, a more significant factor than 10 ELO in sampled stats.

And simply the time you win on the clock by knowing 5-10 extra theory moves is probably worth > 10 ELO in performance Smiley

  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #57 - 01/14/10 at 20:20:22
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While I agree that most openings are playable at lower levels, there's another way to look at this: If 2700s are unwilling to face/solve the problems unique to the French, wouldn't it be more difficult for a much weaker player to solve those same problems over the board? Further, while it is true that in a game between two weaker players, a big mistake by one of them later on is likely to negate any opening evaluation, it is plausible that the one who's defending the uncomfortable position is more likely to err. 

Don't get me wrong, I am a huge fan of the French, and I still play it exclusively against 1.e4, but sometimes I can't help but feel uncomfortable defending certain variations of say, the Steinitz, or Classical French (as well as a few Tarrasch positions) against opponents of equal or higher rating. As an example, in many lines, you know that f4, g4, f4-f5 is coming, but responding to it correctly is not easy. One inaccuracy in defense could prove costly. That said, I am still trying hard (desperately?) to make the French continue to work for me, and have no plans to ditch it any time soon. (though I'm thinking of adopting a secondary opening against 1.e4, maybe the Petroff.. or the Caro)

  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #56 - 01/14/10 at 19:08:40
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I tend to agree with Markovich. If 1...e6 can just be declared somewhat bad for Black by a bunch of patzers like us, what hope does chess have period? Play what you like an don't worry about the popularity at the top level. Bent Larsen played all kinds of unpopular things and was one of the most successful tournament players ever. I can think of 3-4 masters in my area of Ohio alone that only play the French and are extraordinarily successful.
  
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #55 - 01/14/10 at 17:45:57
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I think that fretting over practice at the very top is a big distraction in forming a repertoire.  I certainly wouldn't play an unsound system with any regularity, but its a long way from "not played much at the top" to "unsound."  Besides which, 1...e6 concedes some space, that is all.  It's not as if Black accepts terrible weaknesses with French, far from it.

Further, recently hasn't there been a strengthening of Black's resources in the 6...Qc7 Winawer?  Isn't that what Watson has been saying?  And there is always the Classical.

So French players, study up; prepare a set of notes expressing your own theory of the variations; and go play your a-- off.  If you don't do as well with the French as players of your class do with any other defense to 1.e4, then I'll be a monkey's uncle.
  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #54 - 01/14/10 at 12:25:51
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Bowen wrote on 01/13/10 at 03:50:57:
I think the only problem with the French is that it is out of fashion as a means of achieving a winning, unbalanced position. Right now the Sicilian seems to offer more opportunities for a Black victory in the eyes of the chess world. If semi-closed openings were so bad for Black then why is the Caro-Kann so popular at present? ...[snipped]


This is absolutely correct IMHO. But just simply a matter of fashion, and not because the French is not "correct" (whatever that means).
  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #53 - 01/13/10 at 12:43:38
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Yes Mortal_Games, that Nf4 business in the Tarrasch is annoying and actually pretty good for White, but I believe Moskalenko mentions a different way to play Black in his book that looks like an improvement. I just think the mainline is boring and it's pretty difficult to get a winning position. Then there's the Universal System/Korchnoi Gambit and then it's getting really hairy. You have to struggle with defending and remembering theory after Nd2 just to reach something so-so. And that's not even touching the difficulties after 3.Nc3. 
As far as I'm concerned, it's best to stick to a Dangerous Weapons/SOS approach in the French. Just my 2 cents
.
  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #52 - 01/13/10 at 12:00:40
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Quote:
I remember Grandmaster Bareev coming to Southern California and, during a lecture, telling us that the French Defense was "not correct." And that was coming from a fan. 


I hear Nigel Short in a radio inverview for Chesscafe saying exactly the same and John Watson remember him that he had good results with it and after that Short played the French in the next tournament! Of course, this does not change is general feeling. 

Quote:
After playing the French for a long time and examining hundreds of master games, I tend to agree with him. There are bright spots, such as Shulman and Grischuk's handling of the Poison Pawn Winawer. Most variations after 3.Nd2 and especially Nc3 favor White. When a defense loses it's popularity it's because it becomes difficult to win with and because it lacks a champion to show the way. It just seems to me that many lines are a pain to defend and White now possesses the theory (given all the computers out there) and technical know-how to execute Black in would would ordinarily be inferior but messy positions. 
This doesn't mean it can't be played against 2000 ELO players though.
 

I agree with your point of view too. I do not like the positions after 3.Nd2 because they end up in open positions and for that I prefer 1...e5. Why are we fighting in the French to open the game if we can open it in the first move? Against 3...Nf6 I do not like the variation with Nf4 too. There are several variations in the French that are dificult to manage the complications to gain more than equality and offer a big risk to Black in my view. Exploding the center and dealing with all the activity of the White pieces is almost a cience of precise play. Not only with the French but in general, defences with lots of fireworks (French, Dragon, KID, Najdorf) there are always variations who kill all that fire (Exchange variation, 9.0-0-0, Exchange var, Be2 or 3.Bb5+). I liked the French for the strategical play, but today with the explosion of theory of the computer years concrete play is very important too and sometimes only one variation makes a crisis and the task is much more dificult.
  

It has been said that chess players are good at two things, Chess and Excuses.  It has also been said that Chess is where all excuses fail! In order to win you must dare to fail!
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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #51 - 01/13/10 at 04:10:14
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I remember Grandmaster Bareev coming to Southern California and, during a lecture, telling us that the French Defense was "not correct." And that was coming from a fan. 

After playing the French for a long time and examining hundreds of master games, I tend to agree with him. There are bright spots, such as Shulman and Grischuk's handling of the Poison Pawn Winawer. Most variations after 3.Nd2 and especially Nc3 favor White. When a defense loses it's popularity it's because it becomes difficult to win with and because it lacks a champion to show the way. It just seems to me that many lines are a pain to defend and White now possesses the theory (given all the computers out there) and technical know-how to execute Black in would would ordinarily be inferior but messy positions. 
This doesn't mean it can't be played against 2000 ELO players though
.
  

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Re: French BAD for + 2600 and less bad for -2500
Reply #50 - 01/13/10 at 03:50:57
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I think the only problem with the French is that it is out of fashion as a means of achieving a winning, unbalanced position. Right now the Sicilian seems to offer more opportunities for a Black victory in the eyes of the chess world. If semi-closed openings were so bad for Black then why is the Caro-Kann so popular at present?

Bizoufatal, pas de probleme, vous ecrivez bien en anglais.
  
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