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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) 38 players over 2700 (Read 151237 times)
ReneDescartes
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #223 - 11/08/21 at 14:46:26
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I think rating inflation has to do with the ideas of innate strength independent of one's contemporaries. Does Kasparov's peak rating of 2850 really mean that in 1999 he was much stronger than Fischer had been in 1972 with a rating of 2780? If you say no, you think there is rating inflation.

It's a really complicated topic, and there is no consensus even among experts. Regan's computer analyses of "intrinsic performance rating" suggest that although Carlsen and Kasparov did not play better than Capablanca and Fischer, the number of good players has risen greatly as has average quality of top tournaments. Regan thinks there is no rating inflation overall. But Sonas has also done a lot of detailed analysis with historical results, which do form a continuous chain, and he believes that there is rating inflation. Kasparov and Kramnik agree. We'd need a time-travel machine to settle the matter, so it's not even clear the concept makes sense.

There are some mathematical effects that continuously reduce the ratings of players who have steady strength, as old players leave the pool and young players appear and grow. FIDE and the national federations take mathematical steps to counteract these effects; thus there is always some "controlled burn" of inflation or deflation happening.

If due to societal changes a group of players such as Soviet-bloc professionals suddenly enters the Western rating pool or kids suddenly start coming into the USCF pool with ratings so low that they were previously all but impossible, that can cause rating deflation in Western countries.   

That individuals may play more strongly than their rating--that they are improving too fast to track, for example--is a separate phenomenon, although we might say informally 'these kids' ratings are deflated.'

But if Kasparov said that all players are underrated, he certainly meant it as a paradox with some deeper meaning; otherwise, it's like asking "what if everything got bigger?" or "what if time stopped for a while?".
  
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hicetnunc
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #222 - 11/08/21 at 10:30:58
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Has someone defined what "rating inflation" was ?

Is it when more people are above a certain elo-number (like 2700) ? Or is it when average elo increases in the pool of all FIDE players ? Or something else ?
  

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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #221 - 02/03/20 at 12:11:55
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Scarblac wrote on 02/03/20 at 11:20:08:
Bumping old thread: 35 players above 2700 today, the lowest ever on 2700chess (their tweet: https://twitter.com/2700chess/status/1223664240990572550).


When was the peak of 53 players reached and could it have just been a temporary anomoly due to age of players?

For example we have probably seen several ageing players  becoming either inactive (Kramnik) or slowly dropping points as they get older (Short, Adams )?

Plus a few younger players like Firouza are coming onto the scene with a sub 2700 grade and beat players who then see a greater fall in their ratings?
  

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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #220 - 02/03/20 at 11:20:08
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Bumping old thread: 35 players above 2700 today, the lowest ever on 2700chess (their tweet: https://twitter.com/2700chess/status/1223664240990572550).
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #219 - 05/08/19 at 09:06:46
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gewgaw wrote on 02/25/13 at 19:52:31:
new record:
http://www.2700chess.com/
54 players over 2700 elo.

Only 36 players over 2700 today: https://2700chess.com/
What is happening? I see many players losing lots of rating recently. Could it be that the effect of lowering the ratingfloors a couple of years ago finally starts to hit the highest echelons.
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #218 - 06/20/17 at 03:16:28
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Good question! In the 1960s, Botvinnik described himself as the first among equals, and former World Champions often finished outside the top spots. But there were few elite Round Robin events in the first place.

We are seeing the golden age of chess right now. We have several of the best players ever all competing for top spot. It makes Magnus' accomplishment of staying #1 all that much more impressive, but he may not be able to stay there long.

Gone are the days when only two players competed for the top honors.
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #217 - 06/16/17 at 10:31:43
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This is what had to be expected. If you look at this years Norway Chess Tournament you see before playing the last round the WC and the Challenger on the last and the second to last place. Did this ever happen in chess except in WC-matches? Wink
  

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Smyslov_Fan
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #216 - 06/16/17 at 03:51:17
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ThIsaVulpes wrote on 06/12/17 at 22:33:28:
We got 6 players over 2800 on the Liveratings today, after Aronians win over Kramnik. If Nakamura were to win in R7 against Anand, he'd join the club as well.

Haven't been following this religiously, but I think five 2800s was the previous record? Can't recall having seen six before.

(48 on 2700+, with a few more in striking distance)


That's true! But we currently have 0 players rated +2825. In October, 2001, Kasparov was rated 2839 and Kramnik was rated 2809. It seems that Kramnik has managed to maintain his high level of play, but the younger players have all caught up to him.
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #215 - 06/12/17 at 22:33:28
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We got 6 players over 2800 on the Liveratings today, after Aronians win over Kramnik. If Nakamura were to win in R7 against Anand, he'd join the club as well.

Haven't been following this religiously, but I think five 2800s was the previous record? Can't recall having seen six before.

(48 on 2700+, with a few more in striking distance)
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #214 - 05/02/17 at 19:38:37
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Update, May 2017:

There are currently 43 players rated 2700 or above.

http://en.chessbase.com/post/may-2017-ratings-personal-bests
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #213 - 11/02/16 at 00:31:11
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Scarblac wrote on 10/17/16 at 07:07:46:
Total rating change for players over 2700 at the 2016 IoM:

Caruana (2813): +10.4
So (2794): -0.4
Nakamura (2787): -8.3
Adams (2745): -1.5
Eljanov (2741): +15.5
Leko (2709): -16.2
Wang Hao (2701): -20.8

Total -21.3; these players scored 2 points less than they were supposed to over 63 games.

Of course if the threshold had been slightly higher then Wang Hao would have been left out and it would have been a perfect -0.5. The next three players on the rating list (Rodshtein, Vidit, Naiditsch) scored a combined +24.9.

So this result may be an artifact of picking 2700 as the threshold, but then this thread is about 2700+ players and picking a threshold after looking at the data isn't good either Smiley

Anyway I don't think there's much of an argument in these numbers for inflation or deflation. Leko hadn't played for a long time so he may actually have become weaker than his rating, and anyway it all seems well within normal variance.


I'll stick by my instinct. In this case the only two who gained were the joint winners of the event, both had outstanding results.

Let these 2700's play regularly in opens and they will be sorted out...


  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #212 - 10/19/16 at 17:20:13
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Seems that the numbers are fairly stable.

If there was some sort of built-in inflation inherent in the rating system it would have shown itself. The alternative hypothesis is that players are getting worse.
  
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Scarblac
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #211 - 10/17/16 at 07:07:46
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Total rating change for players over 2700 at the 2016 IoM:

Caruana (2813): +10.4
So (2794): -0.4
Nakamura (2787): -8.3
Adams (2745): -1.5
Eljanov (2741): +15.5
Leko (2709): -16.2
Wang Hao (2701): -20.8

Total -21.3; these players scored 2 points less than they were supposed to over 63 games.

Of course if the threshold had been slightly higher then Wang Hao would have been left out and it would have been a perfect -0.5. The next three players on the rating list (Rodshtein, Vidit, Naiditsch) scored a combined +24.9.

So this result may be an artifact of picking 2700 as the threshold, but then this thread is about 2700+ players and picking a threshold after looking at the data isn't good either Smiley

Anyway I don't think there's much of an argument in these numbers for inflation or deflation. Leko hadn't played for a long time so he may actually have become weaker than his rating, and anyway it all seems well within normal variance.
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #210 - 10/16/16 at 21:34:07
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More to the point, the results at the Isle of Man and other events are proving there may be serious rating deflation on the lower end. Maybe the elite should commit to play more opens and we'll see who is who Smiley
  
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Re: 38 players over 2700
Reply #209 - 10/12/16 at 12:53:36
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Update on 12 oct 16: 41 players 2700+.
  
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