Stigma wrote on 11/19/10 at 02:58:48:
I admit I haven't studied these positions deeply for many years. The game Erenburg-Uhlmann, 2004 made a strong impression on me (I actually witnessed it first-hand), and that in addition to Pelletier's efforts have shown clearly that whether or not Black can ultimately equalize after 12.b4! etc, he is only playing for a draw. Moskalenko in "The Flexible French" was also skeptical, but I don't know how his analysis holds up.
So with several other Advance lines to choose from where Black has his share of the play, I've decided that the moment White players consistently start playing like this is the right time to switch - at least if Black fancies the French as a dynamic, counter-attacking opening.
For the record, Moskalenko's main line after 15.Qd3! Rf7 is 16.Be3 Qc7 17.f4 Bd7 18.c4 "White has the better chances"; though he also prefers White after both 16.a4 Qc7 17.f4, and 16.Bg5 following Predojevic-Pelletier, Turin Ol 2006. His main game is Grischuk-Pelletier, (15.Qd3 Qc7) where 19.Qd4!? is suggested as an improvement for White.
Thanks for commenting, Stigma! I respect your opinion in this matter, as in others. Some brief comments based on my abortive preparation (I ended up playing 1 Nf3!):
Grischuk-Pelletier saw 15...Qc7, which Pelletier later replaced with 15...Rf7, which indeed seems best.
I noted the Erenburg game. Playing through it quickly it seems convincing and thematic, yet Erenburg's own notes rather contradict this. He suggests various improvements for both sides, notably 15...Rf7 (instead of Uhlmann's 15...b6), which he continues 16 Be3 Qc7 17 f4 Bd7 "with approximately equal chances". Here the engines gives White a slight plus after 17 c4. However, Black can also consider 17...b6 (instead of 17...Bd7), holding up c4 on account of ...Ba6. I opine that if Black got this position from a Winawer he would not be too unhappy - he is not in much danger and there is still some imbalance to fight for more than a draw.
I don't think Black was in any real danger in Predojevic-Pelletier.
Agreed that 16.a4 Qc7 17.f4 Bd7 18. Be3! (18.Ba3 Rc8!) White probably keeps an edge and this might be the best that White can do after 15...Rf7.
I also agree that Black has several arguably better (or possibly more attractive) options against 3 e5, but if a well-prepared Black is more or less OK in this old line then the whole line 3 e5 c5 4 c3 Nc6 5 Nf3 Qb6 6 a3 becomes a somewhat less attractive option for White.
I've attached some material to make it easier for readers to join in this discussion.