Quote:Well, I think the point is that the Marshall is so heavily analysed, has multiple forced draws in it, and black is often going into a pawn down ending where the bishop pair provide enough compensation to draw.
I disagree with you on this point. There are a number of forced draws, but Gustafsson's DVD and games like Ivanchuk-Leko show that Black can play for a win against almost any variation if he is well prepared. There is still a lot of scope for further investigations because unlike most gambits, Black's compensation is quite long-term in nature but still offers good short-term compensation in the opening unlike, for instance, the Benko Gambit.
Quote:It is very hard to win with at a high level where people know their stuff.
This is the case with any Black opening. If someone proved that an opening that gave excellent chances to win at 2700+ level, everyone would be playing it, or everyone would be not allowing it.
Quote:The Berlin has much less forcing lines and requires both sides to actually play rather than trotting out theory. The caveat is that, as I said, white can bail out but there are few openings where that is not possible and most 2600+ players are reluctant to give up a white for nothing.
I think the real caveat is that objectively White is slightly better and most of the top guys have appreciated the strength of the e6 sacrifice, as some recent games have shown.
Quote:Carlsen has also been using the Berlin to win, and the Breyer as his more heavily analysed "solid" choice.
I think the Breyer is a better winning try than the Berlin or Petroff because it keeps more tension in the position. Mamedyarov's games are particularly instructive if you want to play for a win with the Breyer as Black. If White makes a slight error then often a timely ...d5 is already better for Black.
Quote:Currently I think the Berlin is almost the main choice of the 2700+ when wanting to win as black vs 1 e4...in the endgame the positions just aren't as sterile as the Petroff.
I doubt it. The main choice of 2700+ players playing for a win is still the Najdorf.