tp2205 wrote on 11/27/11 at 16:42:49:
MNb wrote on 11/27/11 at 16:18:22:
XChess1971 wrote on 11/27/11 at 03:56:34:
Does anybody agree with this guy's statement?
I do for the most part. In days long past I played the Najdorf and against Bg5 the Polugaevsky variation. I don't remember ever having a real game with it (Be2, Bc4 and to a lesser degree f4 were what I faced most though.) I suspect the Dragon may be similar. Studying/analyzing the Polugaevsky variation was fun, but I cannot recall a real game with it where home preparation did not decide the game.
I don't understand the last sentence. Maybe theres a negation too many in it.
I can add anecdotal evidence too the same observation though. I've been playing the Semi-Slav for ca. 20-25 years now. Of course I'm no longer as active as I used to be, but still I got ca. 5 tournament games per year with it.
When did I get the last Meran? In the early 90s.
When did I get the last Botvinnik? 2 years ago and maybe every 2 years on average, but ...
when the last time a main line of the Botvinnik? In the early 90s.
What do my opponents play instead?
1.) QGD Exchange. Against Semi-Slav moveorder that's immediate equality.
2.) Anti-Meran with Qc2. Mostly all kinds of calm variations with b3 and e4. That's simply equal unless Karpov is white.
3.) Anti-Meran Shirov/Shabalov. Okay, this used to be dangerous, so I'll count it as a serious try for an advantage.
4.) Nowadays very popular: Early Qc2 lines, in the hope to avoid Meran & Noteboom and get into a closed Catalan if possible. Annoying stuff, but most players under 2200 don't know how to handle this as white, which renders it pretty harmless in their hands.
5.) All kinds of early deviations in the Botvinnik. Not critical.
Things were even worse in the RL Marshall. The only problem with it at amateur level is that you never get it. 99% of the white players are simply afraid of it.
My observation is that players up to 2000 level, with the exception of junior players on the way up, will generally be happy to somehow get a playable position and make it out of the opening alive if facing a very aggressive opening. They'll virtually never go down the critical path.
Which leads to positive qualities for the Dragon and Acc. Dragon: Everything except the Yugoslav and the main lines of the Acc. Dragon is quite harmless from a theoretical perspective. An experienced black player can play confidently for a win, knowing he is already equal.