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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Alien Invasion (Read 12342 times)
Francis Dodd
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #35 - 01/11/13 at 05:13:00
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But would it prove worthwhile?
  
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #34 - 12/31/12 at 11:56:06
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Ya its pretty sad...
  
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salarcon
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #33 - 11/05/11 at 22:47:29
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This is to be expected from such a person
  
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MNb
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #32 - 08/28/11 at 13:11:17
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Quote:
At the end of the battle, the British had maintained their numerical superiority and had 23 dreadnoughts ready and four battlecruisers still able to fight, while the Germans had 10.


Markovich wrote on 08/28/11 at 02:19:59:
This is incomprehensible to me, since the Germans had 16 battleships before the battle and lost none.

This is very simple math. Six German ships could sail back but had to be repaired. That took also about a month.
So these were temporarily not fit for battle.

Markovich wrote on 08/28/11 at 02:19:59:
Also the article's claim that the British ending the battle "in command of the local area" demonstrates their victory is a piece of nonsense.

Agreed. Problem here is that it's not so easy to determine what a victory is as in say chess.
From a tactical point of view - mainly comparing losses - the Germans won. The strategical point of view is different though. The Germans did not achieve their main goal: a freeway to the Atlantic Ocean.

Markovich wrote on 08/28/11 at 02:19:59:
I have no idea what explains German naval passivity (at least by the surface fleet) after Jutland, but the relative performance of the two sides doesn't seem to.

Well, than you haven't read my previous post closely enough. A month after Jutland the Grand Fleet was stronger than before. The High Sea Fleet wasn't. The German admirals realized that their victory wasn't big enough, ie chances to repeat the success only declined. That was a very rational calculation.
The Germans had learned a lesson from Pyrrhus.

Markovich wrote on 08/28/11 at 02:19:59:
But I would have thought that they could have come up with some plan for achieving local superiority.

Go ahead, show one.
In fact one could argue that the High Sea Fleet actually achieved this. The Grand Fleet never dared to come close to the German coast either.
That was not the German goal though; the goal was to break through the British blockade. That meant control of the North Sea plus breaking the line Shetland Islands-Iceland. Local superiority simply did not mean much.
But yeah, to keep the sailors busy, the High Sea Fleet could have tried som further provocations. Instead the Admirality decided to focus on submarines, which they put (too much) hope on.

Your prediction on Bernanke has become true.
  

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Markovich
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #31 - 08/28/11 at 02:19:59
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Quote:
At the end of the battle, the British had maintained their numerical superiority and had 23 dreadnoughts ready and four battlecruisers still able to fight, while the Germans had 10.


This is incomprehensible to me, since the Germans had 16 battleships before the battle and lost none. Also the article's claim that the British ending the battle "in command of the local area" demonstrates their victory is a piece of nonsense.

Also the article makes the doubtful case that beause the Germans never came out again, the battle was a British victory.

I have no idea what explains German naval passivity (at least by the surface fleet) after Jutland, but the relative performance of the two sides doesn't seem to.

I concede the Jutland did show that the High Seas Fleet couldn't stand toe to toe with the Grand Fleet for very long. Even if the superior effectiveness they demonstrated at Jutland had continued, British numbers would have told in a full-fleet slugfest. But I would have thought that they could have come up with some plan for achieving local superiority.

Still I know nothing of the exigencies of fighting dreadnoughts, so perhaps there is some dead German admiral who, if he would only come back to life, could patiently explain it to me.
  

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MNb
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #30 - 08/25/11 at 22:15:34
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Well, that's an off-topic subject I am very willing to discuss. To present the view of a highly respected General Admiral:

Quote:
Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that even the most successful outcome of a further battle will not force England to make peace.


http://www.battle-of-jutland.com/jutland-long-consequences.htm

It seems like the German victory was not big enough.

Addition: Wikipedia confirms this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Jutland#The_outcome

Quote:
The High Seas Fleet survived as a fleet in being. Most of its losses were made good within a month.


Quote:
At the end of the battle, the British had maintained their numerical superiority and had 23 dreadnoughts ready and four battlecruisers still able to fight, while the Germans had 10.


Quote:
One month after the battle, the Grand Fleet was stronger than it had been before sailing to Jutland.


Bernanke clearly has less options than Jellicoe.
« Last Edit: 08/26/11 at 03:07:46 by MNb »  

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Markovich
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #29 - 08/25/11 at 17:22:50
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It always seems strange to me that the Germans never staked all on a second major foray of the High Seas Fleet, after Jutland.  They acquitted themselves well enough the first time. I don't like appeals to "national character" but if that particular shoe had been on a Japanese foot, I believe the Japanese Navy would have come out swinging.  Maybe the Germans thought they would win the land war and didn't want to risk the morale effects of a possible major naval defeat.

But it's ironic that all of those magnificent battleships went for nothing.
  

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MNb
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #28 - 08/25/11 at 13:55:43
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Markovich wrote on 08/25/11 at 13:02:11:
In that sense Bernanke is like Admiral Jellicoe, able to lose the war decisively but unable to win it. But in spite of the advice of some idiots worried about inflation, Bernanke would no more implement a significant monetary contraction than Jellicoe would have sought out a pitched battle with the Kaiser's High Seas Fleet.

I'd say Bernanke has less options than Jellicoe. The latter did a fine job by containing the High Seas Fleet in its harbours for the rest of the war, thus contributing at least something to winning it. But how can Bernanke contribute to overcoming this crisis?
  

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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #27 - 08/25/11 at 13:02:11
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It's quite remarkable, and rather discouraging, that the financial world awaits Ben Bernanke's August 26 speech with so much hope and trepidation. The reality is that Fed can do essentially nothing to pull the economy out of the current recession. The demand for money these days is almost perfectly elastic, and has been for some time. The risks to investment, and lending, are such that everyone, including industry and the banks, would much rather sit on great piles of money than loan any of it or invest any of it. The Fed can adjust its policy rather radically with precisely no effect on anything but the volume of cash balances.

The possibility does exist that by draconian monetary contraction, the Fed could make things worse. In that sense Bernanke is like Admiral Jellicoe, able to lose the war decisively but unable to win it. But in spite of the advice of some idiots worried about inflation, Bernanke would no more implement a significant monetary contraction than Jellicoe would have sought out a pitched battle with the Kaiser's High Seas Fleet.

The propensity of agents to hoard cash during bad times of course is an explicit prediction of Keynes, not credited much by Milton Friedman or his latter-day followers.
  

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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #26 - 08/25/11 at 03:07:50
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I'd like to commend to the attention of anyone interested in the ideas of Keynes the excellent The Economics of John Maynard Keynes -The Theory of a Monetary Economy, by Dudley Dillard. This classic work was first published in 1948, was republisned many times, and remains in my view one of the simplest and most faithful explanations of Keynes. Most particularly it is free of neo-classical bastardizations such as IS-LM theory, reliance on market inefficiencies, and the like. The work is out of print but is readily and inexpensively available on the web.
  

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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #25 - 08/19/11 at 10:55:26
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Markovich wrote on 08/18/11 at 21:50:52:
I don't know who that is, other than viewing that clip. In the clip, the supposed bond expert appears to assume that the S&P rating downgrade will cause an increase in the rate of interest on U.S. bonds. But that rate is market-determined, and I believe I'm correct in saying that it hasn't recently risen.

Yeah, I checked, and Treasury yields have fallen to historic lows since the downgrade. Some crisis of confidence! That, by the way, is the market saying that the downgrade was a joke.

That may have more to do with the FED printing money and keeping interest rates low, than with the actual market-determination.

Though I agree that the US is very far away from the problems we see in certain EU-countries.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #24 - 08/18/11 at 21:50:52
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I don't know who that is, other than viewing that clip. In the clip, the supposed bond expert appears to assume that the S&P rating downgrade will cause an increase in the rate of interest on U.S. bonds. But that rate is market-determined, and I believe I'm correct in saying that it hasn't recently risen.

Yeah, I checked, and Treasury yields have fallen to historic lows since the downgrade. Some crisis of confidence! That, by the way, is the market saying that the downgrade was a joke.
  

The Great Oz has spoken!
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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #23 - 08/18/11 at 19:26:03
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Markovich, what is your opinion of Max Keiser?  Smiley

  

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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #22 - 08/18/11 at 16:17:35
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Keyes has been widely misunderstood (for a discussion of how, see http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/8801/DavidsonKeynesMonetary.pdf), but it's rather difficult for me to see how anyone familiar with the history of modern capitalism cannot be, in some important sense, a Keynesian. 

I do understand that if one starts with the assumption that the government is the sole source of possible harm to a supposedly perfectly-functioning private economy, and that the only possible effect of government activity is to impede that functioning, then it avoids contradition to work backward to a great many interesting "facts" which must be true if that assumption is to hold, and to believe in those "facts" as fervently as one believes in the assumption.  And I think this is what a great many people in the academy, not only in the United States, have essentially done.  Certainly a great many ideologues on the right wing have (sometimes I am not sure what separates them from some professional economists).  So you have people claiming that Keynes maligned capitalism, merely because he pointed to the obvious fact that it frequently results in the economy settling in a suboptimal equilibrium (a fact which must be false, of course, if the given assumption is to be true).  I even read recently on a right-wing blog that World War II had nothing to do with the U.S. emerging from the Great Depression, but that this was due to the government "finally getting out of the way" in 1938-1940.  That's really a good example of a "fact" that must be true if anyone's firm belief that the government can only hurt things is to be sustained.

I read a remarkable critique of Keynes by a supposedly expert right-wing commentator (not a professional economist though), insisting that the standard Keynesian remedy for recession "supplants private industry."  How does it do that, for crying out loud, given that both capital and labor are unemployed?

When I look at history I see unambiguous support for everything Keynes said, and equally unabiguous contradiction of the classical, Say's-Law-based analysis that was current before him and now has become current again.  If there ever was a brilliant theoretical construct utterly bereft of factual support, it is the "rational expectations" hypothesis by which classical macro-economics was unfortunately unearthed and set walking, zombie-like, once again.  Rational expections, by the way, was another example of something being assumed true because its truth was required by dearly-held assumptions, in this case about rationality among agents and the supposed perfection of markets (bolstered by some fairly obviously false assumtions about the stationarity of economic time series).
  

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Re: Alien Invasion
Reply #21 - 08/18/11 at 12:32:24
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Thanks, Markovich, for chiming in!

I wonder if any of the Republicans seriously dispute the notion that huge government spending (such as to quell an alien invasion) would boost the economy.

You're right though, they seem far more worried about running a debt and ruining their dream of a completely free market than helping the country.

It bears remembering that the Hoover Dam project was started by a Republican president during the Great Depression. Perhaps it would take a Republican president to do the same now?
  
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