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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy (Read 294752 times)
ErictheRed
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #402 - 06/07/13 at 18:30:56
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Stigma wrote on 06/07/13 at 14:57:30:
Do you have any thoughts on the accomplice/centaur scenarios?


My gut feeling is that a reasonably strong, "chess cultured" amateur (2200-2300 FIDE) could play like a 2500-2600 GM without much suspicion.  Obviously if they have an established, stable rating, and suddenly start performing at GM level that's very suspicious, but you know what I mean.

Even in this case I suspect that there will be some areas of suspicion, for instance not knowing the standard techniques in complicated but essentially theoretical endgaems (Rook, f, and h-pawn vs. Rook, for instance).  But these scenarios will be few and far between. 

I think that a very determined cheat, especially with an accomplice, will succeed.  In some sense this isn't exactly new, though.  Cheating has occurred with accomplices in various forms forever, such as a 2300-rated coach helping his junior players (which I saw first hand and fell victim to in California once).  It's just that now you don't even need a very strong accomplice to help you--just some software.

The only real solution I see are "wireless-free" playing areas, which are very easy to implement from a technological perspective, but nearly impossible from a legal one (as far as I know).  Perhaps laws will change as cell phones and other devices become a problem in other areas, like university exams and the like.
  
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dfan
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #401 - 06/07/13 at 17:40:03
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Stigma wrote on 06/07/13 at 02:32:35:
@ErictheRed:

First, some of the suggested scenarios involve an accomplice. A reasonably strong human player can look at a list that reads

31.Qh1 +3.20
31.Nxg5 +1.80
31.Be3 +0.00
...
and conclude quite quickly "I would never even consider Qh1", discard it as a "computer move", and send the second-best but also winning Nxg5 instead.


True, although for all you know that +1.80 is dependent on a computer move four ply down the line, which is going to look just as suspicious.
  
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Stigma
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #400 - 06/07/13 at 16:38:41
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Smyslov_Fan wrote on 06/07/13 at 15:08:57:
FIDE needs to step in and take decisive action. It needs to use a methodology that will exonerate the next Magnus Carlsen or Hou Yifan while catching the cheats. It will only be able to catch the most obvious cheats, but that is still a major improvement over the current situation which really does threaten to kill tournament chess as we know it.

It's sad if that's all we can do, though? "Human-like" centaur play done skillfully may be virtually indistinguishable from the play of the young players you mention. Which is why I maintain that the only long-term solution is physical ways to detect cheating that attempts to catch any cheater, not just those with highly suspicious match-up-rates.
  

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Smyslov_Fan
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #399 - 06/07/13 at 15:08:57
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But there is a new breed of players who do have a pretty high match-up rate with engines.

Hou Yifan, Alexander Ipatov, and Anish Giri all clearly use engines in helping them prepare for their tournaments. Hou Yifan has posted some of the highest match-up rates in history!

Even these players are significantly behind Ivanov's match-up rates though. It is possible to distinguish between computer-aided training and computer-aided playing.

I think it is pretty obvious that Ivanov is either working with an accomplice who does not know much about chess, or without an accomplice at all.

I believe Ivanov is working alone The alternative is that he has a collaborator who knows very little of competitive chess, but a second person would be a long-term liability. However he is doing his magic, it clearly can work with dozens of people watching from very close quarters. It really is quite a feat.

I have heard amateurs discuss at length how easy it would be to cheat for only one move in a game. The problem with that scenario is knowing which move is critical, getting the information to the player, and making it usable in a timely manner. This would require the able assistance of a strong player. While this scenario is possible, as some French players showed, it would take a conspiracy that has too many moving parts to be feasible in the long run. Unless the next Lance Armstrong decides to take over the world of chess.

The Bulgarian Chess Federation made a terrible mistake by banning him for inflammatory comments. What he said was mildly insulting, but not worth banning. The BCF will almost certainly lose any lawsuit that Ivanov may bring.

FIDE needs to step in and take decisive action. It needs to use a methodology that will exonerate the next Magnus Carlsen or Hou Yifan while catching the cheats. It will only be able to catch the most obvious cheats, but that is still a major improvement over the current situation which really does threaten to kill tournament chess as we know it.
  
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Stigma
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #398 - 06/07/13 at 14:57:30
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ErictheRed wrote on 06/07/13 at 03:23:08:
My list was regarding Mr. Ivanov specifically; in his prior games, he consistently played the top choice of Houdini in boring endgames where the differences between the top 5 moves was similar to what I wrote.  That's extremely improbable to do in a single game, but multiple games?

Allright, yes, I already agree with you it's clear Ivanov is cheating. What interested me in my last few posts was how someone could have done it more subtly to avoid detection while still gaining in playing strength.

Maybe you would need a human involved to avoid "looking" to much like a computer then. Do you have any thoughts on the accomplice/centaur scenarios?
  

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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #397 - 06/07/13 at 14:02:49
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From the Gormally article:
Quote:
But the top guys, like Carlsen, seem to display that same kind of computer accuracy all the time.

No they don't, not even close! Carlsen in particular is a bad example to bring up...
  
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #396 - 06/07/13 at 09:55:12
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http://pogonina.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1763&Itemid=1&&lan...

The Sad Case of Borislav Ivanov
by GM Daniel Gormally
Thursday, 06 June 2013

Wink
  
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ErictheRed
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #395 - 06/07/13 at 03:23:08
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Stigma wrote on 06/07/13 at 02:32:35:

In your candidate move list, the differences in evaluation are small enough that they may not matter much in a human game.


Second, shouldn't it be possible to get engines closer to human play (at some cost to playing strength, obviously)? Human biases are well-known and books have been written about them (Afek/Neiman: Invisible Chess Moves). So you could assign lower values to backward bishop moves, moves that put more than two pieces en prise, wrecked pawn structures, moves that leave most of one's pieces undefended, material compared to piece activity (since humans are worse at consolidating against an initiative); higher value to king safety and healthy pawn structures etc.


My list was regarding Mr. Ivanov specifically; in his prior games, he consistently played the top choice of Houdini in boring endgames where the differences between the top 5 moves was similar to what I wrote.  That's extremely improbable to do in a single game, but multiple games?

And I suppose we can program in a little "human bias" in the evaluation algorithm, sure.  But computers don't think like humans, and they're still going to play those weird computer moves that hang on a tactical nuance 16 ply deep that a human would never have considered in the first place.  If that tactical nuance is enough to win a piece--or even just a whole pawn--it's going to overwhelm the minor "human biases" of an extra -0.2 that we programmed in for having a backward pawn, etc. 

Besides, the reason that computers play as well as they do is that we already have programmed in those human biases!  They evaluate positional compensation much better now than they used to; just fire up your old copy of Fritz 4 and put some positional pawn sacrifices in to see what I mean.  But even with the human biases, computers are "seeing" much more than human players do and choosing moves based on odd tactical sequences that a human would never have considered. 

This is my professional opinion, for what it's worth.  As I mentioned previously, I'm an electronics engineer at the most prestigious astronomical observatory in the world (Keck), and among other things I design "little computer systems."  I wouldn't exactly consider myself an expert witness as I'm certainly not a leader in my field, but I think that my former professors and researchers would agree with me in this case.
  
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Stigma
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #394 - 06/07/13 at 02:32:35
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@ErictheRed:

First, some of the suggested scenarios involve an accomplice. A reasonably strong human player can look at a list that reads

31.Qh1 +3.20
31.Nxg5 +1.80
31.Be3 +0.00
...
and conclude quite quickly "I would never even consider Qh1", discard it as a "computer move", and send the second-best but also winning Nxg5 instead. He could even be on the lookout for positions where the difference between the engine's top x moves (5, 7 or whatever) is especially small, and choose a lower one that looks humanly logical in those cases. In your candidate move list, the differences in evaluation are small enough that they may not matter much in a human game.

In short, the accomplice could simply be a "centaur" (human player with computer support) instructed to give higher priority to human judgement than he normally would if trying to maximize playing strength.

Second, shouldn't it be possible to get engines closer to human play (at some cost to playing strength, obviously)? Human biases are well-known and books have been written about them (Afek/Neiman: Invisible Chess Moves). So you could assign lower values to backward bishop moves, moves that put more than two pieces en prise, wrecked pawn structures, moves that leave most of one's pieces undefended, material compared to piece activity (since humans are worse at consolidating against an initiative); higher value to king safety and healthy pawn structures etc.
  

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ErictheRed
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #393 - 06/07/13 at 01:44:49
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Stigma wrote on 06/06/13 at 23:16:23:
...or using some custom-built engine that mimics strong human play.


Maybe I'm totally wrong, but I don't think that it's possible to make an engine play like a human, just like it's not possible to make a human play like an engine.  Engine's don't "play," they don't "think" like humans do at all.  What are you going to do; program an engine to value the Bishop pair slightly more?  They already do that.  Program it to only look 12 ply ahead?  Then it will just play like an engine from however many years ago.

Computer software algorithms still can't reliably pick a human face out of a background of trees unless it knows the exact face it's looking for (I worked on one), though humans can identify a human face in thousandths of a second (and in different lighting conditions, orientations of the face, colors, etc).  Computer lip-reading software is still quite poor (I worked on an algorithm for that as well), whereas most people are quite good at lip-reading naturally.  The human brain is much different than a computer algorithm, and only an enormous revolution in computing (not merely faster processors and more memory) will change that.   

A human cannot reproduce an engine's preferred move time and time again, unless each position is such that one move is clearly better than all the rest.  If it were possible to reliably and consistently choose the "best" move out of a list of 5 whose evaluations were, for instance:

16. Nf3: +0.32,
16. Bf4: +0.29,
16. Rac1: +0.28,
16. Rfc1: +0.24,
and 16. Qb3: +0.22,

then I presume that same human could rank those 5 candidate moves in that order as well.  Anyone think that's plausible in the least???  Of course not.  Humans don't evaluate or choose moves like an engine does--if we did, we'd all have ELOs of about 112 anyway, since it would take 20 minutes (and a bunch of scratch paper) to do the calculations to find the evaluations of each legal move at a depth of 1-ply. 

The idea is preposterous.  I agree with Houdini's author, Robert Houdart: "No human being can consistently play the #1 or #2 choice of Houdini. Detecting this pattern exposes the cheating, no further evidence is required. It's not very useful to focus on individual move choices that appear unlikely (like Qd1 in the blitz game), it's the combined evidence of ALL the moves that is compelling."

I think that I waste way too much time on this thread.
  
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Stigma
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #392 - 06/06/13 at 23:16:23
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MartinC wrote on 06/06/13 at 19:01:33:
As for giving people ideas, I don't think these are hard enough to worry about Smiley Anyone determined/smart enough to do this will consider this sort of thing. Better that everyone else does too.


You forgot /immoral. But when we see how eager Ivanov is to tarnish the reputation of both our favorite game and his fellow players, he could well be some sort of psychopath. We're also lucky he's not been "smart" enough to cheat in a less detectable way, i.e. by only following the computer in some positions, increasing performance more gradually, or using some custom-built engine that mimics strong human play. But here I go giving the wrong people ideas again...  Sad

These more subtle strategies are the reason we need some sort of technical, physical way to detect cheating in every tournamnent were real money is at stake, and we need it fast. So it's good that ErictheRed and other knowledge people are starting to suggest such technical solutions. If we have to depend on suspicious, consistently "computer-like" play and only search those who are already under suspicion, more subtle cheaters will get a free pass.
  

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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #391 - 06/06/13 at 19:01:33
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Well as far as I can tell anything that would help sort the situation out would be useful for everyone. Essentially, even if the Bulgarian federation hadn't temporarily banned him, he can't sensibly play in any tournament right now due to how everyone is reacting.

Of course if it turned out negative then it isn't obvious what (if any) effect it'd have.....

As for giving people ideas, I don't think these are hard enough to worry about Smiley Anyone determined/smart enough to do this will consider this sort of thing. Better that everyone else does too.
  
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #390 - 06/06/13 at 18:47:34
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I want to reiterate for the umpteenth time in this thread that it is not that Mr. Ivanov plays good chess that he's under suspicion, rather, that his particular brand of good chess correlates so highly to the output of an engine.

Going all the way back to the first great tournament result of his (I haven't bothered to follow all of his later games), I remember that he played the first or second choice (and never deviated by more than something like '0.06' from the first choice) of Houdini running on my laptop for 50+ moves in that very boring endgame where he blundered at the very end.  I think that the likelihood of any human player doing that is vanishingly small.  For instance, his GM opponent was able to hold a draw throughout (right up until the last blunder when it was supposed that Mr. Ivanov accidentally moved the wrong piece to the correct square) by playing "human" moves that Houdini was far less keen on.  There were certainly other ways of playing (and other orders of moves) that were just as good; it's incredibly unlikely that Mr. Ivanov came up with Houdini's way of playing entirely without assistance.  And that's just one game, there were many others like that...anyhow...

As an electronics engineer, I'd say that the camera/earpiece proposition is not entirely implausible, but would take a fair bit of work to get up and running properly.  Of course, a junior or senior engineering student at a university could do something like this as part of a project at school (or on their own time); it's possible.  Still, you need a power source, cabling, transmitter, and receiver.  It should be entirely trivial to detect this method, so long as you have the authority to use a hand-held metal detector or give a pat down.

If he's cheating, then catching him should be relatively easy, if the arbiters have the authority to search him mid-game.  Perhaps if there is money at stake in a tournament, the case becomes the jurisdiction of Bulgarian law enforcement officers, and a proper search could be done during one of his excellent performances?  A wireless jammer (though usually illegal to be used without a license) would also do the trick.  He may be using cell phone frequencies, or perhaps something higher, like 2.4 GHz.

Is there enough evidence to warrant that?  Would Bulgarian police become involved in this sort of thing?  I don't know. 

Actually, an antenna and spectrum analyzer would detect his transmissions trivially--but spectrum analyzers cost a lot of money!  It would be nice if chess tournaments could be held in some kind of wireless-free room, but again, you need a license to use a "jammer," and locking everyone inside a Faraday cage isn't going to happen...
  
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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #389 - 06/06/13 at 17:47:30
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If both sending and receiving takes place via the shoe, you could just tap the moves on a button with a toe, in morse code or similar...

Btw. shouldn't we worry now that this thread could give the wrong people some ideas?
  

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Re: Cheating scandals in Croatia & Italy
Reply #388 - 06/06/13 at 17:44:12
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No, not that scary. Still far too big really.

When it gets scary for the existence of chess is when you can't expect it to find anything even if you search someone.

Receivers in shoes are much safer than ear pieces anyway.

Its capturing/processing the board which isn't that trivial.
  
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