FreeRepublic - There's coverage of the variation you discussed in Reply #30 in Chessbase's Opening Encyclopaedia. The analysis is by Lars Schandorff and was first published in ChessBase Magazine # 121. Schandorff uses a Ragozin move order (1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 Nf6 4.Nc3 Bb4 5.cxd5 exd5 6.Bg5 Nbd7 7.e3 c5 8.Bd3 Qa5 9.Qc2 c4 10.Bf5 0-0 11.0-0 Re8 12.Nd2) to reach the diagrammed position in Reply #30. Here Schandorff only considers 12...g6, which is understandable. It's easily the most commonly played move and is, as you note, the historic main line. Now Schandorff dismisses 13.Bxd7 saying that the move "...wins some time because Black must take back with the knight. Still, several games suggest that Black is OK.". He only considers 13.Bh3, which he describes as "The most challenging move". He agrees that now after 13...Bxc3, 14.Qxc3 is good. In fact, he says that 14.Qxc3 Qxc3 15.bxc3 reaching a slightly better ending is "surprisingly strong", although he adds that after 15...Ne4 16.Nxe4 dxe4, White must find 17.Bg4 ("Karpov's deep move"). After 17...Nb6, 18.Be2 preserves the bishop pair and allows White to maintain a long-term edge. Schandorff presents the game Karpov-Milov, Cap d'Agde-A 2002 as a demonstration of how White exploits his advantage. Schandorff also examines 13...Bf8, protecting the kingside. He says it's a flexible idea that needs to be taken seriously, but adds that Black has wasted some time, giving White a free hand. Using illustrative games, Schandorff then shows that three continuations, 14.Rfe1, 14.Bh4, and 14.a3, all give White some initiative and good chances for an advantage. Most of Schandorff's effort is focused on 13...Kg7, which he calls "A good waiting move". He only analyzes the reply 14.Rae1, which he shows to give good attacking chances due to an eventual central breakthrough with e3-e4. He concludes that this variation, which he calls the old main line in the Ragozin, is not quite satisfactory for Black. The second player "has tried many moves, but theoretically White has found pleasant antidotes to them all". However, Schandorff does note that in practical play, matters are different. The positions are very complicated and difficult to play OTB. Thus, Black has his share of chances. CBM 121 was published in late 2007, so there's been quite a few years for new Black approaches to be unearthed. The diagrammed position in Reply #30 is the starting point for a couple dozen lines in Chapter 2 of Krishnater's Chessable course. The chapter title is "Manhattan - Big Main Line with 8.Bd3", so it's clear that the variation is theoretically important. (Note the variation is called "Manhattan" since the position of interest is reached via 3.Nf3 Nf6 4.Nc3 Nbd7 5.Bg5 Bb4 6.e3 c5 etc; i.e., a Manhattan move order). Krishnater concentrates on Schandorff's main line: 12...g6 13.Bh3 Kg7 and now in response to Schandorff's 14.Rae1 Ne4 15.Ndxe4 dxe4 16.Bf4, he gives 16...Nf6. (Schandorff considered 16...Nb6 and 16...f5, which were the only two moves to be played more than once at the time of his writing). Stockfish prefers 16...Nf6 and evaluates the resulting position as =. Krishnater analyzes several lines arising from 16...Nf6 and shows that Black doesn't enjoy straightforward equality. He often has to give up the exchange to win the c3-pawn and gain sufficient activity to maintain the balance. Although Schandorff preferred 13.Bh3, there's some difference of opinion regarding White's best 13th move. The ChessPub Guide "QGD/26 Ragozin System", published in April 2022 seems to favor 13.Bxd7, saying "White gives up his bishop but gains time for development. This approach is more popular than the retreat 13.Bh3, which costs a tempo, and in most cases does not secure the bishop from exchange with its Black counterpart anyway." This comment apparently originates from Ruslan Scherbakov's tenure on the 1.d4 d5 2.c4 section, specifically from his notes to Arencibia-Disconzi da Silva, Buenos Aires 2005. Now, after 13...Nxd7 14.f3, the ChessPub Guide analyzes 14...Nb6, following Korotylev-Landa, RUS ChT Dagomys 2005 and concluding that White has better chances. Krishnater's suggestion is 14...Bf8 15.a3 Nb6 16.e4 Bg7 17.e5 Bf5 followed by ...Nd7 and ...f6 to eliminate White's space advantage. Stockfish evaluates the position after 17...Bf5 as =, but it also suggests that White might have a slight edge with 17.Be3 instead of 17.e5. Krishnater does cover 17.Be3 in his course giving 17...Bd7, when he says "White keeps a space advantage, but Black has a better pawn structure and the bishop pair. Comp calls it equal, but I think it's easier to play as Black." Stockfish and Dragon 3.2 both give +/= for me - could this be another case of the engines' preference for space? In the ChessPublishing update for April 2022, Justin Tan also covers 13.Bxd7. After 13...Nxd7, he comments "in my opinion Black does not completely equalise after Kramnik’s move 14.h4". On the other hand, in his notes to J.Pinter-A.Greenfeld, Beersheva 1991, Scherbakov says of 14.h4: "Logical, but probably not the best". He goes on to note that protecting the bishop on g5 could well be pointless since it's rather useless on this square and often moves elsewhere. In any case, Krishnater has multiple lines with 13.Bxd7 in his course, covering 14.Bh4 with 13.Bxd7 Nxd7 14.h4 f6 15.Bf4 Bxc3 16.bxc3 Nb6 17.f3 Qa4. Here he ends his line with the comment, "forcing the queen to an inferior square." Interestingly, Tan reaches the same position in his notes to Jinshi Bai-Ding Liren, Hangzhou (3.2) 2022 in his April 2022 update. He continues with 18.Qb1 and concludes that "Black still needs to work to claim full equality". In the position after 17...Qa4, Stockfish gives Tan's 17.Qb1 as its first choice, with an evaluation of +/=. In contrast, Dragon 3.2 and Lc0 both give =, so any edge seems to be quite small. Finally, there are the newer 12th move alternatives to 12...g6. As kylemeister pointed out in Reply #31, Tan felt that the most reliable move was 12...Qa6 with the idea to follow up with ...h6, ...Qc6 and ...Nb6. Krishnater includes 12...Qa6 in his course as an alternative line, giving a handful of variations including one that has Black reorganizing his pieces in a manner similar to that described by Tan. And to answer the question in Reply #30 about 12...h6 being in Krishnater's course - the specific move is not, but ...h6 is usually played on move 13 or 14 after 12...Qa6. As noted earlier in this thread, Erigaisi has tried 12...h6 a couple times this year. In both games, he's followed up with ...Qa6-c6, so he apparently played a transposed version of Tan's plan.
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