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Normal Topic Popularity of 1.c4? (Read 5014 times)
Laramonet
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #6 - 05/20/14 at 08:23:06
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I think RoleyPoley makes a good point about 1.c4 having some advantages at club level (say <2200) as most players in this range concentrate on their defence to e4 and then to d4. I am amazed at how few players consider c4, Nf3 and other flank openings when choosing their d4 defence. That is, to choose something not potentially universal, the defence would have to be an absolute favourite.
  
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ErictheRed
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #5 - 05/18/14 at 18:47:08
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Part of the point of 1.Nf3 is getting to the Catalan.  For a very long time (at least for a very long time in the old days) 1. Nf3 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. g3 d5 4. Bg2 Be7 5. O-O O-O was considered the best route to the Catalan proper, as early ...dxc4 ideas are bypassed or made easier.  I can think of Mednis, among others, who thought this was the best route to the Catalan.  Fischer used this move order as well, for instance.

Anyway my bigger point is that frequency of first moves is not very indicative of much, you'd have to search for tabiyas.  At any given point in time a certain subvariation is in good theoretical stead, and White players will use move orders to avoid those particular subvariations.  Hence part of the 1.c4 vs. 1.Nf3 debate.  

And I'd attribute a drop in 1.Nf3 popularity in the early 90s to chess engines, as mentioned earlier.  Most serious payers wanted sharper lines at that time.
  
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Straggler
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #4 - 05/18/14 at 18:33:14
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I'm surprised that 1.Nf3 hasn't been increasing in popularity over the last decade (rather than just holding its own). Wouldn't you expect a Khalifman effect? But maybe that is balanced by an Avrukh effect.
  
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WSS
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #3 - 05/18/14 at 15:20:55
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ErictheRed wrote on 05/18/14 at 14:17:19:
A good deal of it is simply fashion, I think.  

Run a report on 1.Nf3 for the same time period; I wonder if the sum of 1.c4 and 1.Nf3 games has stayed approximately level. 


I ran the opening report for 1.Nf3 from the same Megabase 2014 and observed the following:

1.  Total 1.Nf3 games identified were 442K (or 15% greater than 1.c4 with 383K games.)
2.  The peak of 1.Nf3 fashion was in mid-to-late 1970's.  After 1978 it subsided somewhat but remained relatively strong until early 1990's.  At that time popularity dropped again but has remained relatively flat (i.e. not a declining trend) in the years from the early 1990's to present.
3.  Kramnik, Ivanchuk and Topolov are the top practitioners among strong GMs and Kramnik in particular has a large body of games owing to his long time repertoire preference for transpositional reasons.  Certainly the fact that these players are still currently prominent and active (versus Karpov and Kasparov for 1.c4) would contribute to the popularity.

Since 1.Nf3 is often used as a transpositional route to d4 openings, it might be argued that it's greater frequency is due in part because it is perceived as more useful to the White player who is trying to rule out certain Black 1.d4 defensive schemes (as Bryan Paulsen will demonstrate when his book "Play 1.Nf3" comes out!)  By contrast, 1.c4 players also gain certain transpositional advantages but must face 1…e5 and 1…c5 in addition.
  
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ErictheRed
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #2 - 05/18/14 at 14:17:19
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A good deal of it is simply fashion, I think.   

Run a report on 1.Nf3 for the same time period; I wonder if the sum of 1.c4 and 1.Nf3 games has stayed approximately level.   

Lastly, remember that especially in the 90s, sharp openings became all the rage.  There was a time in the early 90s or so where chess programs engines became good enough (at tactics, at least) to spring some very nasty surprises on your opponent with a minimum or preparation time.  Also, many older theoretical evaluations were changed drastically when computers discovered incredible tactical resources.  So among fairly strong players (I'm guessing high-FM and above), playing sharper positions in the attempt to blow your opponent off the board with a computer-prepared novelty became much more popular.  Of course, home analysis and novelties was always a part of the game, but with engines anyone could test their ideas quickly and efficiently; it took minutes to do what used to take hours.   

We've seen a swing in the opposite direction in the last 5-8 years or so (basically during the Carlsen era), largely because everyone with a laptop can now run 3000-rated software and so it's much harder to spring surprises on anyone.  But for a while twenty years ago or so, it seems to me that that's all the search for novelties was: complete tactical refutations of "old" theory.  I'm guessing that 1.c4 didn't lend itself to as many of those as 1.e4 or 1.d4 did.
  
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RoleyPoley
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Re: Popularity of 1.c4?
Reply #1 - 05/18/14 at 13:04:03
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WSS wrote on 05/18/14 at 12:16:14:
I was curious about the popularity of 1.c4 and ran an opening report in Megabase 2014.  Over 383K games starting 1.c4 were identified and the "fashion index" graph (distribution of games relative to the total) shows a declining trend in the relative frequency of 1.c4 games to the total since a peak in the late 1970's.  There was a resurgence around 1990 and again an upward trend in 2011-2013, but overall the frequency seems to be steadily declining.

I'd be interested in why forum members believe this trend might be happening?  Is it for objective reasons (for example the challenges associated with the transpositional nature of 1.c4 and/or the types of positions it produces) or simply "fashion" (a lack of "role models" in leading players who influence lower rated players?)  The leading 1.c4 practitioners amongst strong GMs were Karpov, Ivanchuk and Kasparov (and of course our own Tony Kosten! Wink) so this would indeed support the point of view that role models and fashion are significant influences.  To some extent I wonder if the greater influx of games of all levels in databases in recent years would tend to dampen the frequency since lower rated players tend to favor mainline 1.e4 and 1.d4.)


I think a lot of players at the lower levels like to play 1.c4 especially since Tony's book on it. Most players at the lower levels spend time preparing lines against d4 and e4 but less so against c4 and so gives an advantage to the white player.

Transpositions would prove a problem. But i always had the impression that the opening at the higher levels was thought to be less likely to provide white with an exploitable edge when compared to e4 and d4 openings. And, with the growth in popularity in d4 openings (especially the catalan?) perhaps those who would look to play the english have decided to play something else?

  

"As Mikhail Tal would say ' Let's have a bit of hooliganism! '"

Victor Bologan.
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WSS
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Popularity of 1.c4?
05/18/14 at 12:16:14
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I was curious about the popularity of 1.c4 and ran an opening report in Megabase 2014.  Over 383K games starting 1.c4 were identified and the "fashion index" graph (distribution of games relative to the total) shows a declining trend in the relative frequency of 1.c4 games to the total since a peak in the late 1970's.  There was a resurgence around 1990 and again an upward trend in 2011-2013, but overall the frequency seems to be steadily declining.

I'd be interested in why forum members believe this trend might be happening?  Is it for objective reasons (for example the challenges associated with the transpositional nature of 1.c4 and/or the types of positions it produces) or simply "fashion" (a lack of "role models" in leading players who influence lower rated players?)  The leading 1.c4 practitioners amongst strong GMs were Karpov, Ivanchuk and Kasparov (and of course our own Tony Kosten! Wink) so this would indeed support the point of view that role models and fashion are significant influences.  To some extent I wonder if the greater influx of games of all levels in databases in recent years would tend to dampen the frequency since lower rated players tend to favor mainline 1.e4 and 1.d4.)
  
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