As you say, if you think in terms of objective evaluation and analyze deeply enough then everything is equal unless someone has done something wrong (and 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 has not seen anyone do anything wrong). So when thinking about white repertoires it is better to think in terms of expected value. How likely will your average opponent be to know or find the antidotes you mention? I doubt many people know or would find the best response to 12.Bh3. I certainly didn't when we played last night. Of course people will look things up and learn from their losses, but I think that is mostly an argument for having a number of tools in your toolkit as white. If you move around enough the opponent will not remember the antidote he learned two months ago. You and I also just play too much blitz together and it leads to us knowing each other's repertoires too well.

With that said, I find myself enjoying the Italian game more than I did the Scotch in part because you don't need to be very well prepared, at least not in order to get a playable game. Plus, there are a number of ways to play as white and black might want to respond to them differently, so you can keep black on his toes quite well in that opening alone. In general, openings that are less forcing and more flexible are less likely to leave you feeling that black can memorize fifteen moves of theory and have a drawn endgame.

First suggestion would be to keep an eye on http://www.qualitychess.co.uk/products/1/209/playing_1e4_-_caro-kann_1e5_and_min... as I think from their blog the Scotch is planned.  I also think Aagaard has been playing some of the lines already and that 9.Nd2!? is their preferred option. 9.Nd2 g6 10.Ne4 has scored well for white but 10...Bg7 11.Bg5 Qxe5 probably kills it.

Otherwise I'll just say thanks for the nice post

I have fallen in love with the Scotch lately, and I'm very happy with the theory and positions I'm getting after 4...Bc5 5.Nb3. I struggle, however, to find positions where White even has pressure in the Mieses variation. Perhaps someone can point out where I've gone wrong or what I'm missing. A quick breakdown of my conclusions:

After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nxc6 bxc6 6.e5 (Vallejo-Pons recommends 6.Qe2!? on chess24.com, and although it's fun, I simply don't believe in it) 6...Qe7 7.Qe2 Nd5 8.c4 I'm going to focus exclusively on 8...Ba6.

After the Modern 9.Nd2!?, there are two main tries for Black that I think are annoying enough to not make me want to rely on this move:

9...O-O-O 10.b3 (computers give 10.Qe4 Nb6 11.b3 d5! and Black is very active) 10...f6! 11.Qe4 Nb4! (against 11...Nb6 I found the fairly awesome 12.Bb2 fxe5 13.O-O-O Re8 14.Nf3 d6 15.c5! Bxf1 16.Rhxf1 Nd5 17.Qa4! Kb7 18.Rxd5!! cxd5 19.Nd4!!-> with a close to winning attack, though White needs something against 13...d6) 12.Bb2 Bb7! 13.exf6 gxf6! (Negi only considers 13...Qf7 on his new DVD) 14.Qxe7 Bxe7 15.Kd1 c5 16.a3 Nc6 yields an endgame that I have to imagine is dead equal. Black is obviously worse structurally, but he's very active, has a lead in development, and it's likely that a later ...Nd4+ will net the two bishops. Maybe this ending is to some people's taste, but I don't have a strong desire to try and figure out the best way for White to try and unravel here, and I doubt it leads to anything anyway. A few games have made it this far, here's two of them:





White can avoid this line with 8.Nd2!? instead, but Negi makes a reasonable case that 8...Bb7! is fine for Black, e.g. 9.Nf3 (9.c4 now allows 9...Nf4 10.Qe3 Ng6) 9...O-O-O 10.Bd2 f6 or 10.c4 Nb6 11.Bd2 c5 12.O-O-O f6.

9...g6! is the standard move, when 10.Nf3 Qb4+! 11.Kd1 dislodges White's King. Play typically continues 11...Nb6 12.b3 Bg7 13.Qd2, when instead of the usual 13...Qe7, I think that 13...Qxd2+ is kind of a buzz-kill. Perhaps the simplest is 14.Bxd2 d6, stopping c5 and chipping away at White's center before he's totally consolidated. Below is a CC game from this variation:



Another obvious plan in the above game is to simply stick a knight on e6, e.g. 20...a5 21.a4 followed by Nd7-c5-e6. I can't imagine Black has any problems at all.

There's also the usual 9.b3, but I'm not really that optimistic about "The Ending", e.g. 9...g6! 10.g3 Bg7 11.Bb2 O-O 12.Bg2 Rae8 13.O-O Bxe5 14.Qxe5 Qxe5 15.Bxe5 Rxe5 16.cxd5 Bxf1 17.Kxf1 cxd5 18.Nc3 (18.f4 has scored worse, and I don't believe it's any more promising) 18...c6. These positions have been investigated ad-nauseum (there are quite a few different configurations here - sometimes Black's castled long, sometimes he's played ...Rfe8, and sometimes the pawn is on g5), but in practice Black has had equal or better chances, and engines certainly seem to think that Black is okay or more:





I briefly thought 12.Bh3!? held some promise (maybe it still does), but simple seems 12...d6! 13.O-O Bxe5 14.Bxe5 dxe5 15.Re1 Rfe8 16.Qd2 Nb6, when White has to work a little harder than Black and find some interesting ideas to fully equalize:



Instead, there's also Barsky's 10.f4, but 10...d6! seems very adequate, e.g. 11.Qf2 Nf6! 12.Be2 dxe5 13.O-O Ne4. Dembo/Palliser also like this variation. A few games to get everyone started (I am getting tired and lazy at this point):





(White has scored miserably after 18...O-O-O)



So what do I do? Don't answer Scotch 4 Knights.

Yes, I realize that chess is a draw and that these days, if you analyze deep enough and accurately enough, everything is a draw. My only complaint here is that (at least if you ask me), Black easily reaches fairly clear and somewhat dry endings too easily, and in the variations that are more complicated, e.g. 10.f4 or 12.Bh3!?, the positions are arguably harder to play for White. I feel like so far, the Mieses is harder to play for White, and Black equalizes (if he knows what he's doing).