Glenn Snow wrote on 08/04/15 at 22:01:18:
This thread is making me look more seriously at the Chinese Dragon. I'm several years behind on it now but it's nice to know there's still no clear cut refutation.
After spending some time analyzing the Chinese Dragon I haven't found any refutation too, but...
12. Bh6 line with a positional 14. Nd5 (after 13...b5) or a 14. Ndb5 (after 13...e5) gives White slight but stable advantage. Black's counterplay on the queenside is very limited. There is some play in the centre for Black but White has it under control.
So I'm asking myself a question, why should I play the Chinese when in the main line Topalov variation (13. Nd5), where there is also the Dragon bishop absent and the play is on both flanks, Black has better counterplay based on a bad bishop on b3 and often exposed White king. I think that in mentioned positions in the Chinese the knight on a5 is placed not so good: it's blocking a7 pawn and if traded on b3, White has good shield against Black attacks; when the knight goes to c4 it is captured and the b-file seems not enough to compensate White's domination on the kingside and in the center.
The counterplay against the white bishop on b3 by pushing a & b pawns with knights traded on d4 is a lot easier for Black to achieve and gives them some reasonable initiative. Those positions in the Topalov are respected by the most recent Dragon sources: Vigorito's excellent theoretical update and even Pavlovic analysis that are done in the Cutting edge mostly from White side perspective.
I started playing the Chinese Dragon, because I was thrilled to sacrifice the pawn after "normal" 10. 0-0-0 Rb8 11. h4 b5!, but since that time White has found better way to combat against Black plans, taking the whole excitement with calm 11. Bb3 - 12. Bh6 - Nd5 sequence that is harmless in 10...Rc8 or 10...Nxd4 variations.
Having said that, I think that the Chinese Dragon is still playable alternative and White must be well prepared to mantain the initiative. If well prepared White is going to push with kingside and center play without serious risks on the queenside. It may be not enough for victory but White has most the of the fun on his side.
That's why I decide to move on. I'm ready to check the Carlsen variation now, to find out if it is any real alternative to the Topalov line. Thank you for finding those links to the existing analysis of 15. Qc1 and the main lines. When I find the road to equality for Black in the Carlsen line, I will share my findings with you.