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Poll closed Question: Who will win the 2016 World Championship?
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*** This poll has now closed ***


Magnus +3    
  7 (11.5%)
Sergey +3    
  0 (0.0%)
Magnus +1-3 (regulation)    
  44 (72.1%)
Sergey +1-3 (regulation)    
  4 (6.6%)
Tie. Magnus wins the tiebreak    
  4 (6.6%)
Tie. Sergey wins the tiebreak    
  2 (3.3%)
The match goes unfinished...    
  0 (0.0%)




Total votes: 61
« Created by: Smyslov_Fan on: 11/08/16 at 08:35:54 »
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) 2016 World Championship Match (Read 57895 times)
Keano
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #163 - 12/02/16 at 20:07:43
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ErictheRed wrote on 12/02/16 at 19:57:29:
I'd be curious to hear your definition of luck, then. 


more like definition of unlucky - "to have something in hand which you lose through random atypical events" just made that up, give me a bit and I will come up with something better  Wink
  
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ErictheRed
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #162 - 12/02/16 at 19:57:29
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Keano wrote on 12/02/16 at 19:32:27:
To respond to various here, I said Karjakin was unlucky not to win the match. I stand by that.


I'd be curious to hear your definition of luck, then.
  
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Keano
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #161 - 12/02/16 at 19:32:27
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To respond to various here, I said Karjakin was unlucky not to win the match. I stand by that. Did he deserve to win it? Obviously not as it didnt happen  Smiley

That said my opinion, and that of various experts also it seems, is that Magnus really did get out of jail in this one. He was one down and making little impression. The game he won he allowed Black a forced draw after about 15 moves. That was a critical moment of the whole match. Karjakin for whatever reason uncharecteristically didnt see it, or simply trusted Carlsen too much.

Over-all though, objectively a draw was a fair result to the match in the end.
  
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IsaVulpes
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #160 - 12/02/16 at 16:32:18
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VKap wrote on 12/02/16 at 16:12:26:
I suspect he will be a big favorite next time. Caruana, So and maybe even Anand IMO will be the only other potential challengers... and Maybe Kramnik.

Everyone else has big problems with nerves.

Even if you think that eg Giri has "big problems with nerves" (for reasons I can't quite follow), it seems rather overeager to me to call that they'd still be there in 2 years time.
Don't think we can call anything at all at this point. MVL climbed up to World #2 this year and wasn't even part of the Candidates; maybe Nepo continues his delayed burst into the Top10 and will be the premier challenger in 2018; maybe the chinese set up a grand new training camp and Ding Liren becomes a real contender, etc etc

The only thing I am reasonably comfortable saying would be that Topalov won't play much of a role in the next cycle, and perhaps with Aronian one can indeed say at this point that he's had his count of tries, but everything else looks very much like unfounded guesswork to me?

Confused_by_Theory wrote on 12/02/16 at 16:28:33:
Probably including MVL. His name is not mentioned at all during the interview and Nils probably does not know NRK somehow knows he was also a second.

Thanks!
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #159 - 12/02/16 at 16:28:33
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Hi.

IsaVulpes wrote on 12/02/16 at 16:02:56:
Are these "2 extra" including MVL, who is also mentioned in the article? Or MVL and 2 more beyond that?

Probably including MVL. His name is not mentioned at all during the interview and Nils probably does not know NRK somehow knows he was also a second.

Have a nice day.
  
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VKap
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #158 - 12/02/16 at 16:12:26
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Scarblac wrote on 12/02/16 at 14:12:11:
Yes, but had Karjakin won game 9, or had game 10 been only a minor advantage for Carlsen and a draw or so, would we then say that the best player had won?


The better player is the one that wins the match.

Karjakin did well, and put Magnus in a situation he never expected to be in.

I suspect he will be a big favorite next time. Caruana, So and maybe even Anand IMO will be the only other potential challengers... and Maybe Kramnik.

Everyone else has big problems with nerves.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #157 - 12/02/16 at 16:02:56
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Confused_by_Theory wrote on 12/02/16 at 15:32:13:
Laurent Fressinet and Nils Grandelius uncovered as Magnus' seconds.
Bossed by Peter Heine Nielsen ofc Smiley.

Also when directly questioned he says that there were more seconds. The phrase he uses is "Ett par stycken till", which is swedish obviously and translates normally into "two more people" or more rarely into "a small amount of more people".

Are these "2 extra" including MVL, who is also mentioned in the article? Or MVL and 2 more beyond that?
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #156 - 12/02/16 at 15:32:13
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Hi.

Laurent Fressinet and Nils Grandelius uncovered as Magnus' seconds. (Edit: Maxime Vachier Lagrave as well! Smiley)
Bossed by Peter Heine Nielsen ofc Smiley.

Norsk rikskringkasting (NRK) link:
https://www.nrk.no/sport/dette-er-carlsens-hemmelige-hjelpere-1.13253569
Or google:
Carlsens hemmelige hjelpere

Notice the dozens of softdrink bottles. A sure indicator of hard work and unhealthy habits by the seconds. Basically what Nils says in the interview is that their seconding work went quite well and that they arguably did a better job than team K. Also when directly questioned he says that there were more seconds. The phrase he uses is "Ett par stycken till", which is swedish obviously and translates normally into "two more people" or more rarely into "a small amount of more people".

Have a nice day.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #155 - 12/02/16 at 14:12:11
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Yes, but had Karjakin won game 9, or had game 10 been only a minor advantage for Carlsen and a draw or so, would we then say that the best player had won?
  
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Antillian
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #154 - 12/02/16 at 13:50:45
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All in all, it seems to be that Karjakin exceeded expectations. But it hard to make the case that Karjakin deserved to win. Carlsen was not at his best, but he still played better than Karjakin overall. In the end the better player won.
  

"Breakthrough results come about by a series of good decisions, diligently executed and accumulated one on top of another." Jim Collins --- Good to Great
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #153 - 12/02/16 at 12:54:28
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That was a good read indeed. Would like to reproduce here one small part that made me laugh:

"Where the million dollar preparation from Team K went remains an enigma. Maybe a whole series of unlucky candidates are going to find this out in March 2018."

oh those unlucky candidates!  Cheesy
  

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ErictheRed
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #152 - 12/02/16 at 02:48:30
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Pantu wrote on 12/01/16 at 20:24:30:
ErictheRed wrote on 12/01/16 at 19:52:29:
Keano wrote on 12/01/16 at 12:31:29:
Karjakin very unlucky not to win this match IMO.


I don't think that luck has much to do with it.  And frankly, I think that Karjakin was a bit "lucky" not to lose at least one of games 3 or 4, in which case the match would probably have been the comfortable win for Carlsen that many thought it would be at the start. 

I'm not disparaging Karjakin's incredible defensive performance, but thinking that it was mere luck that kept Karjakin from winning is odd.  It seems more "luck" that he was able to hold those two games than that he was eventually outplayed later; Carlsen was pressing and better in almost every game of this match. 

Frankly as I've said before, much of this talk about Karjakin's "psychological strategy" is nonsense in my opinion, and a direct result of him being able to hold games 3 and 4 in the heat of battle.  There was no psychological strategy involved, but Magnus's failure to convert those games caused him to doubt himself, or think overly negatively about himself, or caused him to overpress later, or whatever else.  We won't know the true story until someone in his camp reveals it to us, but the psychological pressure on Carlsen came from Karjakin defending well on the board, not some imagined psychological strategy.*

It may have been "luck" that Karjakin didn't find a forced drawing line in game 10, but he was entirely, convincingly, beautifully outplayed in that game; I don't know where all this luck stuff is coming from. 


*I'm aware that psychological conditioning and preparation is a part of all sports, but that has more to do with learning to deal with pressure, success, failure, how to avoid distractions, etc.  It's not "Hey, let's defend lifeless positions all match long and make Carlsen get annoyed!"


GM Tisdall for one agrees with you (his previous reports are worth reading as well): http://mattogpatt.no/2016/12/01/happy-birthday-magnus/


Excellent article that I hadn't seen, and I agree with it wholeheartedly!  I'm just going to start linking that instead of responding to people about this match psychology stuff.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #151 - 12/01/16 at 21:57:32
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ErictheRed wrote on 12/01/16 at 19:25:10:
AJZ wrote on 12/01/16 at 07:27:46:
Karjakin's psychological strategy of playing safe (also with White pieces) and waiting for Carlsen's mistakes didn't pay off. 


I really don't think that was Karjakin's "psychological strategy."  He was just playing the best chess he possibly could in accordance with the openings that he knew best.  Any sort of psychological advantage that he had during points of the match came from his excellent defensive play and ability to cash in on Magnus's mistakes when the World Champion overpressed, not any specific match strategy. 

He was just playing very good chess.  It's amazing how much pressure playing well puts on an opponent in any sport.


My theory is that Karjakin's strategy was playing safe (safe is mildly put!) and provoke Carlsen to play overambitious which once paid off. But because Karjakin lost in tiebreaks the whole strategy turned up to be wrong.
  
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Pantu
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #150 - 12/01/16 at 20:39:43
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With regards the tiebreak, I'm slightly in two minds. The "Champion retains the title in the event of a draw in classical games" is fair IMO: the onus is on the challenger to win the match. Fuel to this fire is that in the three tiebreakers held so far the champion* has won all three.  When the challenger topples the champion it's usually over before the last game, and somehow I want a decisive victory.  Making a draw + winning on tiebreaks is not enough to *become* world champion.

As to the tiebreaks: this was introduced mainly due to the impossibility of making Kramnik and Topalov agree on who was the defending champion and the rules were kept going forward. However it was precisely around then that the live video streaming became viable and we have been able to see** the Anand-Gelfand and Carlsen-Karjakin tiebreaks in real time with video**.  This is a huge boon for us fans: Kasparov and Karpov deciding things this way in Seville and everyone finding out the result a day later is not the same (never mind those Botvinnik matches).

So I think the rapid + blitz tiebreak (N.B. all tiebreaks have been decided in the rapid) is a good match for modern times.

*I'm taking Kramnik as the defending champion as he had won a match for the title.

**If you coughed up for Agon. Chess24 covering was sufficient for me, and I think I'd prefer Svidler commenting over anyone else.
  
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Pantu
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #149 - 12/01/16 at 20:24:30
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ErictheRed wrote on 12/01/16 at 19:52:29:
Keano wrote on 12/01/16 at 12:31:29:
Karjakin very unlucky not to win this match IMO.


I don't think that luck has much to do with it.  And frankly, I think that Karjakin was a bit "lucky" not to lose at least one of games 3 or 4, in which case the match would probably have been the comfortable win for Carlsen that many thought it would be at the start. 

I'm not disparaging Karjakin's incredible defensive performance, but thinking that it was mere luck that kept Karjakin from winning is odd.  It seems more "luck" that he was able to hold those two games than that he was eventually outplayed later; Carlsen was pressing and better in almost every game of this match. 

Frankly as I've said before, much of this talk about Karjakin's "psychological strategy" is nonsense in my opinion, and a direct result of him being able to hold games 3 and 4 in the heat of battle.  There was no psychological strategy involved, but Magnus's failure to convert those games caused him to doubt himself, or think overly negatively about himself, or caused him to overpress later, or whatever else.  We won't know the true story until someone in his camp reveals it to us, but the psychological pressure on Carlsen came from Karjakin defending well on the board, not some imagined psychological strategy.*

It may have been "luck" that Karjakin didn't find a forced drawing line in game 10, but he was entirely, convincingly, beautifully outplayed in that game; I don't know where all this luck stuff is coming from. 


*I'm aware that psychological conditioning and preparation is a part of all sports, but that has more to do with learning to deal with pressure, success, failure, how to avoid distractions, etc.  It's not "Hey, let's defend lifeless positions all match long and make Carlsen get annoyed!"


GM Tisdall for one agrees with you (his previous reports are worth reading as well): http://mattogpatt.no/2016/12/01/happy-birthday-magnus/
  
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