I don't know. Karjakin reminds me of Lasse Viren, the great runner who was not the fastest day-in, day-out, but who was one of the great
peakers who with incredible discipline would save his energy over the months and years and before the crucial occasion release it to quite consciously become stronger than the others. When Karjakin was second to Anand in the previous Candidates', I suspected he would win this one. If he wins here, he will be a worthy champion! And if he loses, a worthy challenger!
Karjakin's self-possession is magnificent. He has left Carlsen just desperate to crack his Black wall. (In Kramnik-Kasparov 2001 everyone talked about Kramnik's Berlin opening, which was indeed seminal, but it was his
accuracy in worse positions once he got the Berlin endgames that won him the title. Kramnik tied Fischer-Petrosian for the greatest performance since Capablanca in Regan's Intrinsic Performance Rating analysis).
Game 3 was crucial and shook Magnus to the core. I for one regard a lot of the subsequent errors as induced. Since that game, Magnus' nerves have been deteriorating before our eyes. Karjakin is literally driving Carlsen out of his mind:
https://twitter.com/Jason_AW/status/800806689314406400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (This is already cruel, but I am presuming here that Carlsen's mental health is fundamentally sound. If not, may God forgive me).
I am not saying that Magnus will lose, but that Karjakin is in no way inferior to the champion as a force of nature--he just has his own, different, set of weapons, including both talent and character.