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Poll closed Question: Who will win the 2016 World Championship?
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*** This poll has now closed ***


Magnus +3    
  7 (11.5%)
Sergey +3    
  0 (0.0%)
Magnus +1-3 (regulation)    
  44 (72.1%)
Sergey +1-3 (regulation)    
  4 (6.6%)
Tie. Magnus wins the tiebreak    
  4 (6.6%)
Tie. Sergey wins the tiebreak    
  2 (3.3%)
The match goes unfinished...    
  0 (0.0%)




Total votes: 61
« Created by: Smyslov_Fan on: 11/08/16 at 08:35:54 »
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) 2016 World Championship Match (Read 105669 times)
ErictheRed
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #88 - 11/25/16 at 05:46:42
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I really can't comment on the psychology of the struggle as I'm not one of the players, and I think that speculating too much about that kind of thing is purely speculation.  I don't know how someone can say that Karjakin is playing the man and not the board, at least not to any larger degree than happens in any match of these stakes.  Karjakin is just playing very good chess. 

I also don't think that it was his strategy to draw as many games as possible in order to get under Carlsen's skin; that seems kind of silly to me.  I think that his match strategy was to play as best as he could, and that's what he's done.  It's not at all inconceivable that Carlsen could have won one or even both of games 3 and 4, in which case I think that we'd be having an entirely differently sort of conversation around here. 

I seriously doubt that it was at all in Karjakin's match strategy to risk defeat and defend such awful positions as those in order to "get under Carlsen's skin," but he played very well and Carlsen clearly became frustrated. 

Also, I can't fathom why Karjakin didn't force a draw in today's game: wasn't 20...Nxf2! obvious and forcing?  Did I miss something?  I didn't see the post mortem, but this seemed to force a draw very easily...clearly the match is taking its toll on both players.  Beautiful chess by Carlsen once the queens came off, though, reminiscent of My System to me.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #87 - 11/25/16 at 02:23:13
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I wonder if this victory brings Carlsen back up to "clear favourite" status?

Was the first game in the entire match that really looked like Carlsen play, his frustration over game 3/4 should have dissipated, and in general the psychological up is on his side now.

There now being a rest day certainly doesn't help Karjakin either, mh..
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #86 - 11/24/16 at 11:29:18
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GabrielGale wrote on 11/24/16 at 09:54:36:
There is a bit of Botvinnik here in the return match with Tal ......  Wink

Carlsen just came out of the hospital and is playing with half a kidney?
  
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GabrielGale
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #85 - 11/24/16 at 09:54:36
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I have to say, albeit very reluctantly as I am not fan of Sergey Karjakin and the strategy, but he and his team has the better match strategy, especially the psychology. Sergey is playing the man, not the board and it is proving very effective.
Magnus Carlsen has established that his team got very complacent after defeating Anand twice. They have not prepared Magnus psychologically.

There is a bit of Botvinnik here in the return match with Tal ......  Wink

Hmmmmmm! perhaps the Carlsen Camp needs to read the classic Sun Tzu's Art of War.  Wink
  

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Keano
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #84 - 11/24/16 at 09:40:36
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Yes, Karjakin seems like the ice-man and Carlsen has been fidgeting about and pulling a lot of faces in this match.
  
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Scarblac
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #83 - 11/24/16 at 09:03:20
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What I find most surprising in this match is that Karjakin has apparently managed to get under Carlsen's skin _so soon_; it was obvious beforehand that a long string of draws would be Karjakin's goal, hoping to unsettle Carlsen. If Carlsen has a weakness, it's his mental state (e.g. qualifying from the Candidates by losing in the last round in a must-win situation, because Kramnik did the same). Apparently Carlsen wasn't able to prepare for that scenario sufficiently.

On the other hand, Carlsen's style has always been to go for quiet positions and then just relentlessly play them for a win when everybody else only sees draw or risk, so maybe Karjakin is just playing extremely good chess to resist all those tries, and Carlsen is just somewhat below his top level.

And Karjakin has been incredibly calm and stable so far, that's something he is better than Carlsen at.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #82 - 11/24/16 at 08:55:51
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@EricTheRed: I suppose the organisations doing the individual interviews paid for that privilege; having them after the full press conference makes the interviews worth less.

There was also a Norwegian live TV crew waiting for Magnus, and if he had talked to them, he wouldn't be in the press conference room on his own in the first place. But he ran past them in anger, so that he had to wait was his own fault.
  
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CraigEvans
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #81 - 11/23/16 at 22:38:50
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Well, watching live after ...Ne7?? - Karjakin suddenly looks a huge favourite after Qb3 or Bxf7+... and the way Carlsen seems to be mentally and in his play, I think +2 with 3 games remaining could be goodnight Oslo and the start of the reign of a new World Champion.

Safe to say, from the poll, that very few were expecting this. The way Carlsen has played and taken risks, I think he was expecting it less than most...

Still, this game isn't over... I could have egg on my face come tomorrow!
  

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ErictheRed
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #80 - 11/23/16 at 16:30:31
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I realize that the procedure for the press conferences must have been agreed upon by the players, but it seems like a very bad idea to have a system where one player must wait for the other for a length of time.  Why not start with the joint press conference and then do individual interviews? 

It must be very difficult to keep up your motivation and energy once you've already become World Champion; what more do you have to achieve?  Hence Kasparov's greatness for remaining at the top so long.  Perhaps this loss will be the motivation that Carlsen needs to rekindle the fire?
  
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ReneDescartes
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #79 - 11/23/16 at 15:57:17
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I don't know. Karjakin reminds me of Lasse Viren, the great runner who was not the fastest day-in, day-out, but who was one of the great peakers who with incredible discipline would save his energy over the months and years and before the crucial occasion release it to quite consciously become stronger than the others. When Karjakin was second to Anand in the previous Candidates', I suspected he would win this one. If he wins here, he will be a worthy champion! And if he loses, a worthy challenger!

Karjakin's self-possession is magnificent. He has left Carlsen just desperate to crack his Black wall. (In Kramnik-Kasparov 2001 everyone talked about Kramnik's Berlin opening, which was indeed seminal, but it was his accuracy in worse positions once he got the Berlin endgames that won him the title. Kramnik tied Fischer-Petrosian for the greatest performance since Capablanca in Regan's Intrinsic Performance Rating analysis).

Game 3 was crucial and shook Magnus to the core. I for one regard a lot of the subsequent errors as induced. Since that game, Magnus' nerves have been deteriorating before our eyes. Karjakin is literally driving Carlsen out of his mind: https://twitter.com/Jason_AW/status/800806689314406400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (This is already cruel, but I am presuming here that Carlsen's mental health is fundamentally sound. If not, may God forgive me).

I am not saying that Magnus will lose, but that Karjakin is in no way inferior to the champion as a force of nature--he just has his own, different, set of weapons, including both talent and character.
« Last Edit: 11/23/16 at 19:14:11 by ReneDescartes »  
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bragesjo
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #78 - 11/23/16 at 13:49:33
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GMTonyKosten wrote on 11/23/16 at 08:49:58:
If Karajakin wins, will he be (relatively) the weakest World Champion ever (if you don't count those FIDE KO winners)? He has been hovering around 10th in the rating list for a long time now, although, to be fair, a victory here will almost certainly alter that.


I dare to say that todays 2700+ players play better chess than the first worldchampions.
But in relative strenth you are right.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #77 - 11/23/16 at 10:55:29
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GMTonyKosten wrote on 11/23/16 at 08:49:58:
If Karajakin wins, will he be (relatively) the weakest World Champion ever (if you don't count those FIDE KO winners)?


The Sonas site has Botvinnik dropping out of the top ten briefly during Tal's reign as World Champion.

http://www.chessmetrics.com/cm/CM2/SingleMonth.asp?Params=199510SSSSS3S015154196...

It also has Petrosian dropping to tenth shortly before the 1968 Olympiad where he regained his top 5 status.

http://www.chessmetrics.com/cm/CM2/SingleMonth.asp?Params=199510SSSSS3S100509196...
  
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GMTonyKosten
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #76 - 11/23/16 at 08:49:58
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If Karajakin wins, will he be (relatively) the weakest World Champion ever (if you don't count those FIDE KO winners)? He has been hovering around 10th in the rating list for a long time now, although, to be fair, a victory here will almost certainly alter that.
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #75 - 11/22/16 at 23:05:52
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Karjakin is looking good with just 4 games to go.  But anything can still happen.  There's been plenty of times where the world champion's been down a point and come back to tie/win the match.  Thinking primarily about the incredible last round wins by Kasparov v. Karpov and Kramnik v. Leko, but Kramnik also came back vs. Topalov to force a tiebreaker, and, iirc, Anand broke back after Gelfand was the first to score in their match.  Not saying the same thing will or won't happen here; all we can do is wait and see how the rest goes! 
      
  
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Re: 2016 World Championship Match
Reply #74 - 11/22/16 at 22:43:46
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Keano wrote on 11/22/16 at 00:56:39:
Cannot believe the lack of objectivity and risk in Carlsens play today.
It has been coming though, doent look himself.
                   


Yes, I have to agree, some of his moves were almost shocking, as though he thought his opponent was so weak he would blunder, or as if it was a last round game where he had to win at all costs just to get a prize.
His play has been way below his usual level, in my opinion.
  
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