Leon_Trotsky wrote on 05/28/19 at 03:01:24:
Syzygy wrote on 05/28/19 at 02:35:34:
I analyzed this set-up for Black for a while. After something like 13. a4 Qc7 14. Bc1 Qf7 15. Ba3 Qf5 16. Qxf5 Rxf5 17. h4 b6, White's best try seems to be to contain the strong ...a5! idea by doubling rooks on the b-file and placing the bishop on d6. Then, White should slowly expand on the kingside while eyeing a possible Ra1/Bb4/a5 break.
Black has to counter that with having bitchop point always at a4 pawn. Another motive is setup with the strange looking putting rooks on b7 and a6, knight on d8 freeing a4-e8 diagonal pointing towards that a4 pawn again. So if White doubles rooks, Black has it defended b6 pawn anyway, and is threatening to take a4 pawn.
If White does Ad6 too early, Cd8-b7 looks interesting threatening to take then win loose d6-pawn.
By this time White has to protect that a4 pawn again. If moves rook back to a1/a2, Black can take off one of his rooks from that defensive setup. If White goes g4 and tries to deflect, Black can put one of the rook on the f-file, and go back to defend b6 pawn if necessary.
To make anything serious on the kingside, White would weaken his pawns and/or have to sacrifice his a4 pawn.
To me it looks more like some odd "positional draw" with very best precise play. In other words, both White and Black get stuck shuffling round their pieces
I came to the same defensive conclusions for Black. Indeed, a hasty Bd6 or pawn break for White only leads to equality. If Black establishes the a5/Rb7/Ra6 set-up and keeps the bishop on the a4 pawn, then White will not be able to break through.
On the other hand, Black can only achieve this defensive set-up if he achieves ...a5 in the first place. Because the knight on c6 is in the way of the bishop, Black is unable to attack the a4 pawn, bring his rooks back to the queenside, and contain the a5 break all at the same time. I think if White is fast enough, he can frustrate Black's plan.
In the end, the evaluation of the endgame is probably a matter of taste.