LordChaos21 wrote on 01/17/20 at 08:01:58:
@JackHughes I agree with you on most points there. But I do disagree with you about 2...d6 3.d4 being theoretically less critical than 2...Nc6 3.Nf3 e5. I won't mention Nge2, because even I myself am not sure anymore whether e5 or Nd4 is better against it.
So firstly in the d6 d4 line, I regard the variation 3...cxd4 4.Qxd4 Nc6 5.Qd2 g6!? to be best. It's played less often than Nf6, but scores much better and my engine likes it more. Following 6.b3 Bh6 7.f4, Black should equalize with Nf6. But yet the positions are very dangerous, and White scores quite well.
In the Nf3 Nc6 e5 line, Black has been doing pretty well, with Carlsen winning a bunch of games. And also not many top players play this, except Nepomniachtchi. But even he hasn't really had good opening results. The engine does give White a slight edge initially, but in practice it's just equal.
Actually it is largely because of popularity at the top level that I regard 2. Nc3 Nc6 3. Nf3 to be more promising for white than 2. Nc3 d6 3. d4. In the TWIC archives there were 12 games between in the former position (11 via the 2. Nf3 move order) as opposed to only four for the latter. This disparity would likely be even greater if not for the facts that (i) the Najdorf is over twice as popular at top level as the Sveshnikov, so the 2. Nc3 d6 3. d4 line represents a smaller proportion of attempted Najdorfs by black and (ii) that the Rossolimo (i.e. the other main anti-Sveshnikov) is significantly more popular and generally considered more promising for white than the Moscow (i.e. the other main anti-Najdorf) and so for people wishing to avoid the Najdorf the 2. Nc3 d6 3. d4 line should have a head start over the 2. Nc3 Nc6 3. Nf3 line. The other main factor supporting my view is, as you alluded to, is engine evaluations. A few years ago I would have found it easier to disagree with them if practice had mounted a strong enough counter-argument, but in the age of LC0 I am much more reluctant to do so: the fact that both AB and NN engines claim at least a normal opening advantage for white, in spite of their many stylistic differences, is much harder to explain if such an edge doesn't exist than it would be if such an edge did not exist.
Of course the main problem with my view, once again alluded to by you, is practical results. White has been doing terribly in the 2. Nc3 Nc6 3. Nf3 e5 line! I could quote lots of different statistics filtering based on recency and rating, but in general remains that black has even been outscoring white. I'm not sure what to make of these statistics. My best guess that it's the kind of statistical anomaly that can occur with small sample sizes, in some cases possibly attributable to factors as arbitrary as the remarkable skill of Carlsen in particular within these structures. I suspect one explanation might be that black's play is simply easier in this structure, as I've heard lots of generic statements in commentaries on this line and games within it that "Black can easily play around the knight on d5 and has clear prospects on the kingside with a later ...f5 while white's plan is less clear" but I'm not buying it: very similar positions can arise in the Italian Game after 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bc4 Nf6 4. d3 Be7 5. 0-0 0-0 6. Re1 d6 7. a4 Na5 8. Ba2 c5 9. Na3 Nc6 and white has been doing very well here, and I haven't found anyone claiming when analysing these lines that these structures are somehow inherently easier for black.
In regards to your comments about the 3. d4 line I'm happy to defer to your judgement there. I really haven't done enough study to form a properly founded opinion. Given that MVL chose to play that way in his most recent outing in this line at Norway Blitz last year it would not be surprise me if you are correct.
Finally, in regards to the Colovic course I would not discount the possibility that he was motivated, at least in part, by a desire to give an Anti-Sicilian repertoire that all Sicilian players can adopt: the man's not an idiot, and he would definitely be well aware of the fact that doing so gives him access to a much larger potential market to sell his product to. Maybe I'm being too harsh on him, especially given his recommendation of the 3... Bd7 (instead of the more marketable 3... Nc6 where white has been doing well while repertoire books continue to advocate it), but it definitely would not surprise me if that was a major factor influencing his decision.
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Why don't Najdorf players play 2.Nc3 Nc6? (Read 24470 times)
