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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten (Read 22309 times)
Jack Hughes
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #10 - 02/26/20 at 17:50:52
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LeeRoth wrote on 02/26/20 at 16:12:17:
Jack Hughes wrote on 02/25/20 at 00:17:03:
1) I'm in pretty much full agreement here, although I would note that for move order considerations a combination of the 8... a6 Meran and the Noteboom is not a complete standalone repertoire on account of the move order 3. Nf3 c6 4. e3 Nf6 5. Bd3 Bd6 6. Nc3 which will force a transposition to the 8... Bd6 Meran.


I don't play this line with either color, so just wondering if there is a reason not to play 5..Nbd7?  The idea would be 6.Nc3 dxc4 7.Bxc4 b5 8.Bd3 a6, although I get that White doesn't necessarily have to play 6.Nc3.   
   

Oops! You are technically correct of course. I guess I was just typing this blindfolded and forgot to play ...Nbd7. The move order I should have used was 5... Nbd7 6. 0-0 Bd6 7. Nc3, when black is in the same dilemma.
  
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LeeRoth
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #9 - 02/26/20 at 16:12:17
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Jack Hughes wrote on 02/25/20 at 00:17:03:
1) I'm in pretty much full agreement here, although I would note that for move order considerations a combination of the 8... a6 Meran and the Noteboom is not a complete standalone repertoire on account of the move order 3. Nf3 c6 4. e3 Nf6 5. Bd3 Bd6 6. Nc3 which will force a transposition to the 8... Bd6 Meran.


I don't play this line with either color, so just wondering if there is a reason not to play 5..Nbd7?  The idea would be 6.Nc3 dxc4 7.Bxc4 b5 8.Bd3 a6, although I get that White doesn't necessarily have to play 6.Nc3.   
   
  
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #8 - 02/25/20 at 15:20:48
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Jack Hughes wrote on 02/25/20 at 00:17:03:
the chess world is a richer place when people share their discoveries

Yes, I agree, and thanks for your efforts. As for me, I am not making any discoveries. I barely have time for my minimal chess activities: a few puzzles per day, a couple of hours per week at the local chess club, following chessbase news, and posting the occasional contrarian opinion here.
  
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Jack Hughes
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #7 - 02/25/20 at 00:17:03
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Thanks for the comment gillbod. My main motivation in sharing this was simply to get input on the idea from others, and as the course of the thread has shown it was worthwhile for me to do so. But I'm also vain enough to like being thanked - so that was a secondary motivation! As an aside to anyone else in a similar position I hope that this can be a lesson: the chess world is a richer place when people share their discoveries, and in the process you will get a real chance to improve on your own analysis. If you'd rather keep it secret for the sake of your next game then I certainly won't judge you - but I and many others will be very grateful if you choose to take the other path.
In response to Syzygy's points.
1) I'm in pretty much full agreement here, although I would note that for move order considerations a combination of the 8... a6 Meran and the Noteboom is not a complete standalone repertoire on account of the move order 3. Nf3 c6 4. e3 Nf6 5. Bd3 Bd6 6. Nc3 which will force a transposition to the 8... Bd6 Meran.
2) I've heard this claim made quite frequently, but at the very least I would say it depends on the Anti-Meran being referred to. The Zukertort style lines with 7. b3 do involve some complex move order issues while both sides are still developing but even they can get pretty sharp or concrete once the central confrontation begins. Against the mainlines with 7. Be2/Bd3 I am recommending an early ...dxc4, partly because I feel that this is pedagogically best for developing understanding of the Meran/Anti-Meran complex (we see how the insertion ...Bd6 and Qc2 alters the position), and partly because this is the most tried and tested way for black to play. I'm not sure I would agree that play is non-forcing here, as they typically lead to an early central confrontation and when this happens both sides will have to play precisely in order avoid being worse. There are some subtle positional nuances involved in how white initiates this central confrontation but the actual number of lines they involve is quite manageable - I think black can get in good, concrete preparation here. Finally there is 7. g4, which although pretty much a theoretical dead end for white these days remains very popular at club level, and is as sharp and forcing as anything in Semi-Slav.
3. Yes, black is certainly walking a tightrope in the Botvinnik. My reason for recommending it is that white is too! I've been playing the repertoire I recommend whenever I get the chance in internet blitz for a while and in my experience less than half of my opponents (Lichess ~2200) even get to the main tabiya on move 16, and a very healthy percentage of them are either worse or downright lost while I'm still in preparation. Only one has ever played what I would consider a theoretically critical line but even they found themselves in a lost position after their very first non-theoretical move. I'm not entirely sure what drawn rook endgame you're referring to but if it's the one recommended by Schandorff and played in Ding-Yu 2016 the you can rest assured that I am recommending 16. Na4 Qa6 (instead of that game's 16... Qb5) when the mainline with 17. a3 Bxd5 18. Bxd5 Ne5 19. axb4 Rxd5 20. Qe2 cxb4 21. Nc3 Qd6 22. Nxd5 Qxd5 leads to a very interesting and double edged position where black is an exchange down but has active pieces and a highly mobile pawn majority on the queenside and recent ICCF games suggest black is in excellent theoretical shape. Of course I won't deny that the lines are very deep and that if black is out prepared then the results can be catastrophic and so my approach to designing the course is aimed at easing black's preparation. The basic concept is to cover each line in five different levels of detail. The first level is just a brief (~4000 words) outline of the strategic concept of the repertoire and chosen lines, and over the next three levels the theoretical coverage increases alongside the base of knowledge assumed by the explanatory comments; the intention is that students will start on the first or second level and then study the higher levels only once they have sufficiently absorbed the contents of the lowers levels (the presence of a move trainer is very helpful in that regard). The fifth level is intended only really for analytical purposes (e.g. to aid correspondence players) as well as to assist in targeted preparation for a predictable opponent. I would also stress that it is important not to confuse memory burden with the depth of the lines: because play is so forcing the moves typically have readily comprehensible concrete purposes to them, and the positions diverge from each other quickly enough that it is typically quite easy to avoid confusing your lines.
4. I am also not fond of those lines, so I am recommending 3. Nf6 Nf6. I have a short chapter (~12,000 words) discussing the various move orders black can employ to reach the Semi-Slav, which serves largely to justify my chosen recommendation. Against the Catalan I am currently intending to recommend 4... dxc4 5. Bg2 c6!?, as played in Yu-Caruana 2019, which I think leads to exciting play where black is in decent theoretical shape, and also fits well with a Semi-Slav repertoire. As this is the most experimental line I am recommending I also intend to cover 5... a6 as an alternative, where I am quite excited by the trendy line 6. 0-0 Nc6 7. e3 Rb8.
If you're interested in getting at seeing what I've written so far then please feel free to contact me on Lichess (@jgh1996), which I am using to write the bulk of the course. I would be more than willing to share with someone such as yourself who has already provided such useful feedback.
  
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #6 - 02/24/20 at 19:05:25
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Indeed, I'm quite interested in what you will recommend in your upcoming course. Having recently looked at creating a repertoire based on the Triangle System / Semi-Slav, I've made the following observations:

1. The Black side of the Marshall gambit, Noteboom variation, and 8...a6 Meran seem to be in perfect theoretical shape.

2. The Anti-Meran lines are not as forced, but Black's position is very sound and correspondence games seem to confirm that Black has found equality everywhere. The play is rich and deep and can especially become quite tactical when White finally gets in the e4 push.

3. Against the Bg5 lines the Botvinnik is perfectly fine, but isn't Black walking a tightrope there? He has to memorize a lot to get to a drawn rook endgame, and White can force repetitions at will. I've been looking at the Moscow lines, and the recent idea of playing ...g6, ...dxc4, and ...Qe7 seems to be holding up nicely. The Anti-Moscow gambit lines are razor sharp but ripe for exploration.

4. I'm not fond of the Stonewall set-ups or 3. Nf3 c6 lines, and think Black should aim for the Semi-Slav with 3. Nf3 Nf6. Will you be covering this move-order, or the Catalan at all, in your upcoming course?
  
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #5 - 02/24/20 at 10:43:09
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I don't have much to add to this but wanted to at least thank the OP for sharing his hard work! Threads like this are what make this forum stand out.
  
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Jack Hughes
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #4 - 02/24/20 at 10:16:26
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Thanks to those who have replied, especially Syzygy for the useful feedback. In response to the points that have been raised.
- Seeing that it has been played before shows that I really needed to update my TWIC compilation. I checked the Lichess master database but didn't check Chessbase online. D'oh! Judging by the date I guess a fellow engine monkey must have beaten me to it...
- Of course I am aware of 9... f6. It has been played many times and it hard to imagine how anyone with access to a database could miss it. My personal assessment, which I go into in greater detail in the course, is that white at the very least has the significantly easier play and might also be doing well theoretically. The critical line is 10. Nf3 b6 11. Nd2 Qf4 12. Bh5+ g6 13. Bf3 Qe5+ 14. Kf1 Qc7 15. Bc3 e5 16. Ne4 Kf7, with a very murky position that I wouldn't want to recommend for black in a course. White has plans of expansion on both wings and the black kingside is especially vulnerable to ideas of h4-h5 or Nxf6. These ideas will be risky for white as well but I feel that with white having the choice about when to play and black having to anticipate them until white does white should have the easier play, and as an author I would feel that I'm running unusually high risk of having all my analysis refuted by an early deviation that I had failed to consider. The fact that white has been doing well in recent correspondence games only makes things worse.
- As regards the 19. c5 endgame I agree that it wouldn't be much fun, but considering the accuracy white has displayed to reach it against such a fresh idea. Both of Syzygy's points are valid, but I still don't think there's any serious doubting that black should hold.
- 21. bxc3! is a rather embarrassing miss on my behalf. White indeed seems to have a rather significant advantage there. Szygy's suggested improvement 15... Bg4 seems like the perfect antidote. My brief clicking produced lines like 16. h3 Bxh3! 17. Bb4! (gxh3? Nf5 -+) Kf7 18. Bxc5 bxc5 where Stockfish is typically giving its trademark 0.00 but LC0 typically prefers black. It's hard to believe this could be a worry. Of course this whole 10... e5 concept is risky but so far as I'm concerned such is life in the Marshall Gambit, and also in the repertoire I am recommending in the course (Botvinnik and 8... a6 Meran).
- I certainly do not think black is in theoretical trouble after 10... Bd7, and indeed I am planning to make that my main recommendation (going down the established mainline with 11. Bc3 f6 12. Nf3 Nh6 13. Rd1 Rd8 14. Qa3 Bc8 15. Nd2 Qf4 16. Bh5+ Nf7 17. 0-0 c5). Since this is such a critical line however I would like to have more than one recommendation, preferably a sharp or exciting option for black. My initial intention was to recommend the exchange sacrifice 10... bxa5?! 11. Rd1 f6 12. f3 Qe3 13. Qxc6+ Kf7 14. Qxa8 Ne7, but as you can tell from my annotation I think white is objectively quite a bit better there - more of an advantage I think than in the 19. c5 endgame. It is in light of that background that 10... e5 excites me so much: if I'm going to recommend a potentially dubious but exciting alternative, at least it can be a new dubious alternative! And at least for the moment I'm not even sure it's that dubious!
I've also been taking a closer look at 18... Rae8. At one point it seemed like 20... Qg2 might be an improvement, but sadly it seems that white is quite a lot better after 21. Rf1 fxe5 22. Bxe5 Qxh2 23. Rd7! (23. Qxb6 Ng5 when black keeps the initiative and is apparently fine) when the almost forced sequence 23... Rf6 24. Re7 Rxe7 25. Qxe7 Rf8 26. c5 leads to an endgame where black is probably just objectively lost.
  
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #3 - 02/24/20 at 03:57:31
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In your line with 14. Rd2, Stockfish is giving me a large advantage for White after 21. bxc3!? gxh5 22. h3, keeping the queen centralized. Perhaps Black can deviate earlier? One try that comes to mind is 15...Bg4, but the positions look awfully dangerous.

In your line with 14. Nxe5, White's best is indeed 19. c5, but I would evaluate the resulting endgame after 23. Rd6 to be significantly better for White instead of slightly better for White. Black will probably end up with an isolated pawn on e5 and the worse minor piece.

Is there anything wrong with 10...Bd7? It seems to be holding up fine in correspondence games, and I would definitely prefer this to 10...e5, which seems to be more effective as a surprise weapon.
  
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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #2 - 02/23/20 at 22:46:25
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20+ years ago I played 9. ...f6 and worked quite well, but I didn't check it with the latest engines.
  

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Re: Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
Reply #1 - 02/23/20 at 09:15:10
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Interesting, thanks for sharing!

I had a quick look, and it seems quite ok to play this way. I don't see any variations that are better for White than 19. c5

Btw, this has been played in one game it seems (in Chessbase Online database), although between lower rated players. See Erastov-Uskov, Moscow 2020.
  
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Jack Hughes
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Marshall Gambit Mainline - Novelty on Move Ten
02/23/20 at 03:07:08
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Hi all,
I have been analysing the Marshall Gambit as part of my planned upcoming Chessable course on the Semi-Slav through the Triangle move order, and Stockfish suggesting a very interesting novelty in the mainline of the Marshall Gambit.
The position under consideration arises after 1. d4 d5 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 c6 4. e4 dxe4 5. Nxe4 Bb4+ 6. Bd2 Qxd4 7. Bxb4 Qxe4+ 8. Be2 Na6 9. Ba5 b6 10. Qd6. This position is the absolute mainline of the Marshall Gambit which has been reached in literally hundreds of games, which have overwhelmingly continued with the relatively solid 10... Bd7 - alternatives have not fared very well for black. Instead of this Stockfish at low depths recommended the completely new move 10... e5. Strategically this move is very desirable if black can get away with it as it allows black to contest the dark squares and develop the light-squared bishop actively on f5 instead of d7 (this is black's standard scheme of development in the Marshall Gambit which this line with 10. Qd6 is supposed to prevent). The risk black is taking is that by delaying castling and committing to this pawn advance so early white's chances of blowing black away with an early sacrifice on e5 are increased.
I have looked at this for a few hours and am quite interested to hear what other ChessPub members think. My current conclusion is that the best white can do is reach a rook endgame where white's better structure and piece activity allow white to press for a little bit, but where back should hold. Along the way there are some real fireworks.
The critical line continues with 11. Rd1 Bf5 12. Nf3 Ne7 13. Bc3 Nc5! (13... f6?? 14. 0-0! Qxe2 15. Rfe1 Qxc4 16. Nxe5! +-) and then.
A) 14. Rd2 f6 15. 0-0 Kf7 16. Re1 Rhe8! (16... Rhd8? 17. Qxd8 Rxd8 18. Rxd8 Ng6 19. Bxe5! +/-) 17. Nxe5! (pretty much forced, if black is allowed to get the execute the standard plan for free then black is already seriously better) fxe5 18. Bh5+ g6 19. Rxe4 Nxe4 20. Qxe5 Nxc3 21. Qxc3 gxh5 with a murky position where black has a rook, bishop and knight against white's queen and two pawns. LC0 really likes white but Stockfish starts spitting out zeroes. It's the kind of position where I have no real doubt that Stockfish is objectively correct but the LC0 evaluation might be a better indicator of practical chances, so this could be an interesting try (at least OTB) for white.
B) 14. Nxe5 0-0!
B1) 15. Qxe7 Rae8 16. Qg5 f6 17. Qe3 Qxe3 18. fxe3 fxe5 19. 0-0 where white is slightly better but black is surely okay.
B2) 15. f3 Qh4 16. g3 Qh3 17. Qxe7 f6 18. b4 Na4! (18... Rae8 19. Qxa7 Ne6 20. Rd2 fxe5 21. Bxe5 Bg6 22. Qd7 c5 +/- when black doesn't seem to have enough for the piece and two pawns, but this could be investigated further)
B2a) 19. Ba1 is the principled attempt to refute black's sacrifice, but after 19... Qg2 20. Rf1 Qxh2! (20... Rae8 21. Qxa7 Qxh2 22. Qxa4 fxe5 23. Qb3 +/-) 21. g4 Rae8 22. Qxa7 Rxe5 23. Bxe5 Qxe5 24. Qxa4 Qg3+ black can immediately force a draw. There are some deviations along the way but nothing that seems to give any advantage to white.
B2b)19. c5 might be white's best, when 19... Rae8 20. Bc4+ Be6 21. Bxe6 Qxe6 22. Qxe6 Rxe6 23. Rd6 leads to the rook endgame I mentioned earlier. White is still a little bitter but black should hold.
Like most sharp lines I'm sure it would get rather depressing once the routes to these endgames became well known but for the moment I'm really excited about this line. Any thoughts or suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
« Last Edit: 02/23/20 at 18:37:34 by Jack Hughes »  
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