Jack Hughes wrote on 03/28/20 at 09:32:01:
trw wrote on 03/27/20 at 23:34:06:
Also we are assuming that all 9 people survive which is very very unlikely.
This part confuses me. Do you think that there is an above fifty percent chance that one of the players will die from Coronavirus? Given the age profiles of the players and the well documented effect of age on mortality rates this seems like a very strangle prediction to me.
50% chance? No. And I would love for it to be a 0% chance to be clear, but it is a non zero number. Data is not good and estimates vary wildly. Original thesis put the death percent at 2-3%... The US was at 1.4% and is now at 1.6%. China doesn't release real data. Germany is at .4% Italy is at 9%... Unfortunately, NYC is set to make a record 10% or higher. We do know that FIDE increased their chances dramatically by exposing them to this debacle, travel, opening ceremony, more border and public spaces etc etc etc. They're young and healthy... but we don't know what is causing some cases to be mild vs gnarly. 17 year olds healthier than them have died brutally and painfully with no connected comorbidity. Sure, they're not in the target danger demographic of elderly, infirm or infants... but right now we don't know enough. Still, 8 people with a long enough time frame does not spell well for all 8 surviving. I would doubt we get through this crisis without each of us losing someone we love sadly.
Bibs wrote on 03/28/20 at 12:36:00:
@trw
Let's keep it civil shall we?
I am afraid I disagree with you that I haven't been "civil." The only reason people aren't mercilessly attacking ?? to the e5 move is because Caruana played it. If it had been someone else outside the top 10 or heaven forbid a 2000 player, people would laugh at it forever. It will not be played in correspondence since I can assure you since white wins by force.
As for CBT, it's pretty clear I haven't done anything wrong here at all. He proposed 4 options that make no sense whatsoever.
TopNotch wrote on 03/28/20 at 17:44:42:
I agree with you for the most part, and I would add that as a chess fan I was thrilled with the 7 games we got, but as an impartial observer the Candidates going forward was a bit reckless to begin with. This whole argument about ultimatums feels like nonsense to me, Radja asked or as fide indicates demanded the tournament be postponed in view of a spreading pandemic. Fide refused, Radja dropped out and was replaced. Later the tournament had to be cancelled just like all other major sporting events due either directly or tangentially to the effects Covid-19 globally.
Clearly this a big mess, I suspect the players agreed to play reluctantly for various reasons, financial being a big one stigma being another. It is possible that legally FIDE may not owe Radjabov anything, the LAW is funny like that, but morally they surely need to do something to make Radjabov whole. The assertion that Radja may not be in shape 2 years from now, is simply not a strong enough counter argument, besides he is a proud guy and i'm pretty certain he wouldn't play if he felt he wasn't in good enough shape. The other argument that Radja would be robbing someone else of a spot may have some merit, but there is also merit that he is being robbed now.
The stance that Fide could not have foreseen what happened and took every precaution is weak, since every precaution would have included postponing the tournament until it could be better determined the impact of Covid-19 globally especially in the absence of a vaccine.
Now here we are, and this is what we are left with. Clearly Radja has been aggrieved, Fide has made a misjudgement and needs to attempt to find an amicable remedy for all concerned. However the current players in the Candidates cannot be disadvantaged any further and I say again the best, though not perfect solution is to resume the candidates at a later date and to try to make amends with Radjabov by seeding him directly into the next Candidates. This is the humane thing to do under the circumstances.
Lastly I hope everyone remains well, calm and rational and that a cure is soon found for this scary disease. There is a 2011 film entitled Contagion that eerily mirrors what we are going through now right down to the source of infection and I would highly recommend viewing it while most of us are 'sequestered' in our homes, as it may offer some hitherto new perspective and gravity to what we could be facing going forward.
I agree with you mostly except that Radjabov didn't drop out he was forced out with an ultimatum. Kramnik also agrees with your solution. I hope FIDE is smart enough to repair this situation without forcing the courts to do it for them. It was totally reckless on their part to push the candidates forward and without consulting with any competent medical professional anywhere at any point that would have advised them against this decision. It makes one wonder why FIDE doesn't have a chief medical officer...
At any rate, now the question is what to do and how to course correct. The prevailing opinion from top players seems to vary on how to compensate Radjabov but thus far no one seems to question that he needs to be made whole.
Vladimir Kramnik:
https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-dvorkovich-kramnik-on-ending-the-candid...Sergey Karjakin:
https://twitter.com/SergeyKaryakin/status/1243483082822496257Gata Kamsky:
https://www.facebook.com/gata.kamsky/posts/3582661241804381Azeri National team:
https://www.chess.com/news/view/azerbaijan-team-open-letter-fide-radjabov