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Poll closed Question: Candidates 2020 how to proceed (options below)
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A    
  17 (77.3%)
B    
  1 (4.5%)
C    
  4 (18.2%)
D    
  0 (0.0%)
E    
  0 (0.0%)




Total votes: 22
« Created by: Confused_by_Theory on: 03/27/20 at 22:55:41 »
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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Candidates 2020 how to proceed (Read 2919 times)
VGA
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #41 - 05/22/20 at 05:17:10
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The tournament should continue where it left off like nothing happened.

Also, Radjabov forfeiting his spot and MVL replacing him makes the tournament more kosher and prestigious, not less. Of course FIDE miscalculated, they should not have gone ahead with the tournament during a pandemic *and* after one player declined to put his life in danger.

But making a mistake doesn't mean you have to compensate anyone or make even more weird decisions on top of your original mistake. An organisation doesn't have a "conscience". Just keep trucking along.
  
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #40 - 05/07/20 at 22:34:04
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Bibs wrote on 05/07/20 at 07:26:50:
trw wrote on 05/06/20 at 06:53:38:
Looks like FIDE is giving Radjabov the Wild Card to the next candidates tournament [2022]  The TopNotch/Kramnik Solution is definitely the cleanest.


Is this announced somewhere perchance? Link?



Oh, sorry, https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&t=2604&v=yWIdsKzu1DQ

FIDE President makes an 'unofficial' statement that he wouldn't make if isn't FIDE's default plan. Note, Radjabov is playing for his team that he captains in the FIDE Nations event.
  
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Bibs
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #39 - 05/07/20 at 07:26:50
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trw wrote on 05/06/20 at 06:53:38:
Looks like FIDE is giving Radjabov the Wild Card to the next candidates tournament [2022]  The TopNotch/Kramnik Solution is definitely the cleanest.


Is this announced somewhere perchance? Link?
  
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trw
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #38 - 05/06/20 at 06:53:38
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Looks like FIDE is giving Radjabov the Wild Card to the next candidates tournament [2022]  The TopNotch/Kramnik Solution is definitely the cleanest.
  
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TopNotch
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #37 - 04/17/20 at 21:51:32
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I've already made my position quite clear on this.
  

The man who tries to do something and fails is infinitely better than he who tries to do nothing and succeeds - Lloyd Jones Smiley
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #36 - 04/17/20 at 04:42:33
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Hi.

Is there any remaining interest for a Radjabov poll now btw?

Provided I set it up question would be something like "Given the circumstances, would it seem fair to compensate Radjabov for the revocation of his candidates 2020 spot and if so how?"

A: No
B: A sincere apology
C: Financial compensation
D: A direct spot in the candidates tournament next wch cycle
E: A re-inclusion in the candidates tournament this wch cycle
F: Other (write in comments)

Have a nice day.
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #35 - 04/17/20 at 04:06:02
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Hi.

The poll is finished and option A:
A: Tournament is resumed at later date with R1-7 results in force

Was the most picked option. My very brief analysis would be that this somewhat indicates how most would not want to make changes at this point, even if the Candidates in Yekaterinburg didn't go as planned.

Have a nice day.
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #34 - 04/08/20 at 15:31:37
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Hi.

Two more days to vote. Alternatives:

A: Tournament is resumed at later date with R1-7 results in force
B: Tournament is cancelled and R1-7 results no longer matter. New candidates tournament is held at later date
C: Tournament is cancelled and R1-7 results no longer matter. New candidates tournament is held at later date with Teimour Radjabov included
D: Tournament is cancelled and R1-7 results no longer matter. Instead of new candidates tournament the eight players, Carlsen and Radjabov play a tournament directly for the title
E: I don’t care how this gets resolved. Let's just all agree we need a 1000 people at the opening ceremony when the candidates gets back.

Have a nice day.
  
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #33 - 04/05/20 at 02:26:27
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Hi.

To bring up a new subject for whatever reason. I assume based on, admittedly Ilyumzhinov era bid regulations and such, that Fide still likes to collect money beforehand. In that case sponsors situations in a predicted economic downturn would really not matter much for the match continuing according to plan.

That being said sponsors look like quite big and diverse companies to begin with so it should be fine either way.

Algorand (Blockchain technology)
Phosagro (Fertelizers)
Kaspersky (Cyber security)
Prytek (Software for various kinds of companies I think but it was not entirely clear)
Merecedes-Benz Russia (Car production and import)

Have a nice night
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #32 - 04/05/20 at 01:51:55
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Hi.

As I recall mr. Dvorkovich said he wasn't sure when the candidates could be resumed. He hoped for september at the latest; in order to allow time for preparation before a wch match in december. Also the (Russian) company sponsors will decide the venue and location. Presumably Yekaterinburg again though.

In my country there is a publicly available model from the health authorities of how many hospital spots and intensive care spots are thought to be needed throughout the country (meant for hospitals but it's public). It assumes, based on observations from China and Lombardy primarily and I would imagine at least some assumptions, that there is going to be a roughly 140 day period with heigtened demand for hospitalisations from (and this is a bit wooly) the day the virus is oficially classed as "out in the broader society". This is a sort of designation made by the authorities in my country basically done when the point is reached where there are multiple active cases not well traced by the authorities. In my part of the country this designation came 20/3.

The scary thing is the absolute numbers. In my area the peak demand for extra (i.e. not counting ones that need to be there already) hospital spots, modelled at roughly day 75-95 from when virus is out in the broader society, will be something like 160 intensive care spots compared to the 5 or so the model predicts today (week two here). I was scared when I read this. Like in other places extra unused hospital spots were not really present beforehand. Listening to my nurse friend rant about this is normally kind of interesting. They would have to be generated in the months before the peak or worst case just before. Both require intensive planning. I highly hope this kind of planning has been done in as many places as possible.

Anyway. Provided you'd want things to go back to near normal when it comes to new infections and hospitalisations before resuming the tournament. September could well be to soon.

Have a nice night.
  
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Bibs
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #31 - 04/05/20 at 00:34:00
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I suspect FIDE will try to finish the Candidates when they can. None of us know when the 'when' might be, plainly. How long from now? Unlike Campo and Kirsan before, it strikes me that the new FIDE people are trying to do the right thing. And to appear to be doing the right thing too. Mistakes will be made, and some can disagree with aspects of what has happened, but I do have the strong impression that the new FIDE is a dramatic improvement on prior.

This is not a strike by Skynet, and it will end at some point. And things will return to comparative normality. Then things continue, among which there is the board game chess, and working out who is better at this particular board game...
  
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #30 - 04/04/20 at 17:42:52
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It's early days, but my best guess now is the 2020 Candidates will never be finished. The next World Championship will take place in 2022. None of the eight/nine gets seeded into the next cycle. It's a pandemic, draw a line under it, start from scratch.

All speculation by me, of course. As I said above, there's an infinite range of choices for FIDE.
  
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #29 - 04/04/20 at 01:39:03
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ReneDescartes wrote on 04/02/20 at 21:53:45:
This is one of those silly internet things where one of us makes a statement, as one might in conversation, that is mostly rhetorical (e.g., it's not likely all nine survive...), upon which another of us says it's technically false (e.g., (.99)^9>.5, ln(.5)÷ln(.99)>68), after which the first person feels attacked and tries to defend the statement as if he meant it as a studied opinion, and so on.

In defense of trw, if you imagine this as a conversation at a pub, the guy who takes it technically would look kind of out of it, like Mr. Spock. (Kirk: "what are the odds!" Spock: "approximately one in 96,562, Captain..." Kirk: "Sorry I asked.")

In further defense of trw, I will point out, Spocklike, that at trw's upper mortality rate of 10%, if >74.2% of the population gets infected (by about the time the tournament resumes, as herd immunity extinguishes the spread), the indicated result would indeed be more likely than not. Of course the players are young, etc., etc...

In even further defense of everyone, let's remember that the unfolding disaster has lots of people really wound up. I've had all kinds of friends and relatives say things that are out of character (or sometimes harsh things all-too-in-character that they would normally say more gently). In my mind I'm trying to issue everyone a get-out-of-jail-free card during this historic event.

Bless us all. I love these conversations. May we all do ok, even FIDE.


Times like these tend to reveal character or in some cases clarify it, and i'm specifically speaking of Donald J Trump here and his Press conferences in his own words. Enough said on that.

Regarding our own Commander Data, I found the statistical musing a useful distraction at times but not very helpful on the whole. The minutiae was too in the weeds for my tastes and way over my head. From my layman's point of view and from what I am observing in my country and elsewhere, is that too many people in a given population are irrational and need to be protected from themselves for the common good. Common Sense goes a long way, and one does not have to wait on Governmental proclamations to act sensibly, indeed in my country there was a strange phenomenon, the more the Government guided people on what to do, how to act and what precautions to take the more many of them were determined to do exactly the opposite like crowding the supermarkets, buying up a ridiculous amount of excess toilet paper until it had to be restricted to x amount per person, a reaction to being scared Sh**less I guess Smiley. Crowding the Banks every single day. essentially anything that remained open was over-run and overwhelmed much like what the virus will do to many health care systems if it is not contained. The best weapon we have to contain the virus right now is 'Physical Distancing' the term 'Social Distancing' is just misleading and sends the wrong message, the problem is as it always is, i.e Human Nature, to successfully implement Physical Distancing and for it to have any positive impact, it has to be enforced, there are simply too many idiots that do not care if they infect others, are infected themselves or are unable to comprehend the consequences of their own actions until they lay dying and suddenly have an epiphany. Despite many countries having head starts over others, they still kept making the same mistakes over and over with disastrous consequences, like being slow to call for and enforce Curfews and National Lockdowns. Being slow to shutdown borders and not being completely forthright with the population and therefore losing trust.

Essential services is what is needed to keep society functioning until this Virus burns itself out, such as access to food, medicine, telecommunication networks, water, power grids, but yet you are arguments about church services being essential and parishioners being encouraged to come to church by some Pastors, to be clear any person encouraging people to congregate in large groups should be arrested fullstop. The attitude of religious zealots tend to be problematic in every society, as they tend to be an intractable sort that cannot be reasoned with even when their actions have dire implications for others. Another serious issue is people hoarding Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), Depriving the health care system of it, in the hopes of driving up the price to make a profit. Such people should be tracked down and heavily prosecuted, since their actions are contributing to Doctors, Nurses, Care-Givers etc. dying needlessly due to the lack of adequate PPE. What do you think will happen if the majority of Doctors become sick or simply refuse to treat patients that test positive for Covid-19 because of insufficient PPE, why aren't voters demanding of their representatives that this be dealt with immediately. While on the topic of voters, and as an observer from a country with universal health care, I am bemused as to why Biden is winning the American Democratic race and why americans consistently vote against their own self interest, swayed by strawman arguments like how you gunna pay for that, when you have one candidate blowing $500 Million dollars!! of his own money!! in a campaign designed to stop the one man running on a platform to ensure that the majority of americans can afford and access health care. I mean I get why the wealthy minority want to block universal health care, what I don't get is why the majority poor and disenfranchised don't vote in one voice to change it, it's completely absurd to me. 

Anyhow, back to Covid, at this time Governments should be brainstorming and focused on ways to get meals and medication to the most vulnerable parts of the populous, to give them less reasons to have leave home, take care of the people and the economy will bounce back, trying to do it in reverse order is stupid, and if your leaders are suggesting this then that's your cue to vote them out as soon as humanly possible, House and Senate. There is still  a lot unknown about COVID-19, and the experts say that a possible vaccine is at least over 12 months away. To have the best chance to survive this pandemic people have to observe restrictions and take recommendations from the W.H.O seriously, or there will be an inevitable culling of the World's population far exceeding what it should be. Non compliance without a compelling reason should be punished swiftly and decisively for all our sakes. 

From watching the news, it is clear that mixed messages are being sent with politicians saying one thing and medical experts saying another. Rule of thumb, in a health crisis listen to the medical experts, CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta and Pandemic Expert Dr. Anthony Fauci are the voices to take note of. If you are religious then pray for a speedy outcome, but do it at home.
  

The man who tries to do something and fails is infinitely better than he who tries to do nothing and succeeds - Lloyd Jones Smiley
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Bibs
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #28 - 04/03/20 at 08:51:05
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In general, it’s probably better to stick to discussing chess rather than death.
You’re probably right on that.
Apocalypse aside now.
I’m looking forward to seeing who MC gets in his event.
  
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Re: Candidates 2020 how to proceed
Reply #27 - 04/03/20 at 07:02:06
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Damn! This is not exactly the first time someone has compared me to Mr Spock - but you know it's bad when it's coming from a forum for discussion of chess openings! Putting my Spock hat (or ears, perhaps?) back on, I do think that a scenario where 7.4% of the world's population dies seems ridiculously unlikely, and not an epistemically justifiable prediction. At least that appears to be the case for the US - which at the moment seems like it will be one of the worst hit places - if the March 30-31 McAndrew survey is to be believed, where even the worst case scenario of the most pessimistic of 18 experts was that 2 million people (~0.6%) die. At any rate, if 7.4% of the world's population were to die within a year then I think we would all have much, much bigger problems to worry about than the Candidates Tournament.
Apologies if my posts in this thread - including I suspect this one - have come across as cold or insensitive. That was certainly not my intention, and I understand that this is quite a stressful time for a lot of people. If people so wish then I am perfectly willing to leave this thread alone from now on.
  
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