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Hot Topic (More than 10 Replies) Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start (Read 1102 times)
Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #18 - yesterday at 02:03:57
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Hi.

Dink Heckler wrote on 12/03/21 at 09:04:52:
First comment after five games. Fair to say interest in the WC must be at an all-time high 

I always thought lower interest in tournament threads these days is basically due to a mix of things. Like if you wanna debate games you can just do it in real time at some stream or platform that follows the thing. If there is some interesting chess moment there is no real need to seek online advice; any engine these days will give a pretty good picture. Also there is so much information everywhere that just following a thread for information purposes is unneccesary.

pirx wrote on 12/03/21 at 23:33:07:
Was game six interesting enough?

Hehe. Yes a very nice one.

For the record it looked like Ian was actually again very fine out of the opening. The 11...b5 move was impressive. This time though, Carlsen got a little bit of imbalance in structure and was able to outplay Nepo.

Have a nice day.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #17 - 12/03/21 at 23:33:07
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Was game six interesting enough?
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #16 - 12/03/21 at 09:04:52
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First comment after five games. Fair to say interest in the WC must be at an all-time high  Wink
  

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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #15 - 12/03/21 at 08:09:56
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Hi.

No decisive games so far (after five played). If Nepo, playing black today, neutralises Carlsen's white game again it's starting to look like a trend.

Have a nice day.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #14 - 11/21/21 at 15:08:33
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NM, I found my answer.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #13 - 11/21/21 at 13:34:53
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Sadly, my PC is on the fritz and the kindle I'm making this post on is a poor substitute. Does anyone know if the WC will be shown live on You-Tube? Which channel, beginning when?  TIA!
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #12 - 11/21/21 at 12:08:30
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I would really like to see a Winawer or two!!
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #11 - 11/20/21 at 23:46:24
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This has the potential to be a wild match, given both that both players have a tendency to tilt - for example, the way Carlsen lost a game in his match with Karjakin when frustrated by missed chances in earlier games. Based on the facts that (a) Nepomniachtchi will benefit from a whole galaxy of Russian opening novelties and (b) that Carlsen hasn't been quite his normal semi-infallible self this last year, my prediction is for the match to go right down to game 14, and for Nepomniachtchi to win.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #10 - 11/20/21 at 15:14:18
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ReneDescartes wrote on 11/19/21 at 21:07:42:
Since Nepo is a tactician and an intuitive attacker while Magnus likes strategic challenges but not chaos, I would expect Nepo to play the Sicilian and the Gruenfeld as Black and 1.d4 as White, while Magnus might answer 1.e4 with 1...e5 and the Berlin and 1.d4 with the Queen's Indian or Nimzo. I wouldn't be surprised to see both 1.d4 and 1.c4 from Magnus as White. If Magnus falls into a position where he needs to win with Black, I would expect to see the Sveshnikov again.

This is all very conventional. Who knows--maybe the match will hinge on the Winawer poison pawn?!


Thanks Rene. I don't follow elite chess anywhere near as much as I used to, and repertoires appear to be much more fluid than they used to be.
  

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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #9 - 11/19/21 at 21:07:42
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Since Nepo is a tactician and an intuitive attacker while Magnus likes strategic challenges but not chaos, I would expect Nepo to play the Sicilian and the Gruenfeld as Black and 1.d4 as White, while Magnus might answer 1.e4 with 1...e5 and the Berlin and 1.d4 with the Queen's Indian or Nimzo. I wouldn't be surprised to see both 1.d4 and 1.c4 from Magnus as White. If Magnus falls into a position where he needs to win with Black, I would expect to see the Sveshnikov again.

This is all very conventional. Who knows--maybe the match will hinge on the Winawer poison pawn?!

  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #8 - 11/17/21 at 21:32:01
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Any suggestions as to what openings these players may look to play?

I appreciate they may be preparing some curve ball openings, but are there any particular ones they routinely use that we should expect to feature?
  

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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #7 - 11/17/21 at 19:51:48
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https://2700chess.com gives current classical ratings 2856 vs 2782.

https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html gives Carlsen winning expectancy of 0.602 for a single game and 0.836 for a best-of-14-games match. Tie match is only 0.081 likely.

Rapid ratings 2892 vs 2792 gives Carlsen a higher 0.637 probability in a single game, but a lower 0.686 probability in a best-of-4-games match.

Of course, chess will be played not by statistics but by humans. I just bring this up because, if they are tied after regulation, we can expect to read comments that Carlsen was not interested in winning in regulation and only wanted to reach the tiebreaks where his advantage is bigger. I read these same comments after the Caruana match, but it wasn't true then and won't be true in 2021.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #6 - 11/17/21 at 18:04:53
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I think Magnus's chances are better than 60-40 because of his universality, his psychological acuity, and Nepo's emotional, streaky play. It's a bit like a match between Magnus and a 31-year-old Ivanchuk.
  
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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #5 - 11/12/21 at 14:42:17
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Working backwards, Nepo beating Magnus would patently be one of the greatest WC upsets of all time; ergo, Nepo's odds cannot be anywhere near 40%.
  

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Re: Carlsen- Nepo WC match, Nov 26 start
Reply #4 - 11/12/21 at 14:04:44
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I propose a compromise: 65% Carlsen, 35% Nepo.
More important: the first half might become exciting.
  

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