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The question posed by doefmat in the initial post of this thread about replacing the Botvinnik/Moscow (or Cambridge Springs) with the Orthodox Variation is addressed by Milos Pavlovic in his recent book, The Modernized Semi-Slav. After opening with 1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 c6 4.Nf3 Nf6, he suggests meeting 5.Bg5 with 5...Nbd7 with 6.e3 Be7 to follow. Thus Pavlovic declines to go into the Botvinnik with 5...dxc4 and into the Cambridge Springs with 6...Qa5. After 6...Be7, the game has transposed into a form of the Orthodox Variation (or perhaps more accurately it's "Orthodox-like", to use kylemeister's term from Reply #11). At this point, Pavlovic notes, "We have transposed to the QGD with the c-pawn on c6 sooner than in the standard lines. The idea is now being played by some very strong players who are investigating the possibilities in a line which older theory had dismissed." Indeed, a Chessbase search flags this as a "hot' variation with strong players such as Artemiev, Caruana, Dubov, and particularly Carlsen trying it in recent years.
Pavlovic considers a number of White 7th moves here. I found 7.Bd3 to be of particular interest. Pavlovic's recommendation is 7...dxc4 8.Bxc4 Nd5 - Capablanca's freeing maneuver - or least something similar! In its usual form, it and the preceding ...dxc4 would occur after the additional moves Rc1 and ...0-0. Pavolvic is aware of the classical antecedent, saying "In this section we examine the method Capablanca employed in his match with Alekhine but in a slightly different form". I guess I'll need to rethink what I said in another thread last year about such classical themes becoming shunted aside in modern chess.
At any rate, Pavlovic continues: 9.Bxe7 Qxe7 10.Rc1 0-0 11.0-0 Nxc3 12.Rxc3. A transposition to the classic form of the Orthodox has now occurred, and 12...e5 would be the traditional continuation here. Pavlovic instead recommends 12...b6. He hasn't mentioned it yet, but he is following the Wojtaszek-Carlsen game given by kylemeister in Reply #11. Theory has tended to frown on 12...b6, citing Capablanca-H.Steiner, Budapest 1928. That game continued 13.Qc2 c5 14.dxc5 Nxc5 15.b4 Na6 16.a3±. In exploring 12...b6 a bit more, I found that Pachman, in his 1970s Queen's Gambit, described the move as "unusual, but not bad", with his analysis following Capablanca-Steiner until improving with 15...Nd7 16.a3 Nf6=. I found an improvement for White in ECO D (2nd edition 1987), which gave analysis credited to Neishtadt: 15...Nd7 16.Bd3 Nf6 17.a3 Bd7 18.Rc7 Rfc8 19.Ba6!⩲. Further searching found Neishtadt's line cited in multiple books, including Schilller's Queen's Gambit Declined Orthodox Variation (1984), Polagayevsky's Queen's Gambit: Orthodox Defence (1988), and NCO (1999). Even Pachman changed his mind, quoting Neishtadt's line in his Das Damengambit (1993). I wasn't able to find any analysis of 12...b6 in more recent works. Apparently this lack of coverage stems from the relative unpopularity of the Orthodox and the growing prevalence of repertoire books recommending other QGD lines for Black.
I should mention that ECO D also has an interesting footnote in Neishtadt's line : 17.Rc7!? (sacrificing the b-pawn instead of protecting it with 17.a3) 17...Qxb4 18.Ne5∞. It turns out that the pawn sac is Stockfish's preferred move, although the reply after 17...Qxb4 is 18.Ng5±, which is evaluated by the engine as stronger than Neishtadt's line. This pawn sac hasn't been tried in practice yet.
Getting back to Pavlovic, he follows Wojtaszek-Carlsen to move 28, ending with the comment, "With an even game. White was never able to build any kind of initiative". Although he covers a few White alternatives on move 18, Pavlovic doesn't do any analysis between moves 10 and 18. Thus, he doesn't mention the theoretical counter to 12...b6. As FreeRepublic (Reply #12) says, one can't ignore anything Carlsen plays, and I would suspect Magnus had something in mind against the theoretical line. However, it seems a bit of an oversight for Pavlovic not to say anything.
Touching briefly on other White seventh moves, Pavlovic does cover 7.cxd5, leading to the Exchange Variation. He also deals with 7.Rc1 and 7.Qc2 (both mentioned by FreeRepublic in Reply #12). The rook move is met by 7...Ne4 (Pavlovic refers to this as "the Lasker method", and it does resemble the Lasker Variation) 8.Bxe7 Qxe7 9.Bd3 Nxc3 10.Rxc3 dxc4. Now 11.Bxc4 transposes to his analysis of 7.Bd3, while Pavlovic analyses 11.Rxc4 0-0 to equality. Pavlovic notes that 7.Qc2 "is considered the critical move to respond to Black's early ...c6". His analysis follows the Carlsen game from the February 2023 ChessPublishing update referred to by kylemeister in Reply #20. (Caruana-Carlsen, Titled Tuesday Chess.com Int blitz 31.1.2023). Pavlovic ends his analysis on move 21 with the evaluation, "Black is fine", though here again, he just gives a string of bare moves without comment after move 14.
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Is the QGD Orthodox still allive? (Read 5089 times)
