kylemeister wrote on 06/17/09 at 22:50:48:
Well, I probably can't match your apparent level of confidence about such things, and I don't know about the statistics, but (a) several encyclopedias published from 1999 to 2008 thought 4...Bc5 preferable to 4...Nd4 (with the latter but not the former leading to an edge for White); (b) in a two-part NIC survey last year, Carsten Hansen thought that White has very good chances of getting an edge against 4...Nd4 and that he "should actually welcome this move."
A) The popularity of 4...Nd4 in GM play is mostly recent, indicating that theory has changed in it fairly recently. Old evaluations are always overturned.
B) It also does much better in competition between 2500+ than 4...Bc5, and is significantly more popular between the two. If 4...Bc5 were that great it'd be played more frequently and with better results.
C) I don't think it, or 4...Bc5 actually suffices for equality, as that is reserved to the more theoretical 4...Bb4/4...d5. White should always be happy when less critical lines are played.
Quote:
Surely 4...Bb4 can lead to sharper positions than 4...d5, and the theory seems to me pretty extensive. Eight years ago ECO had a number of variations in those 9. f3 lines (Kasparov-Karpov/Kasparov-Ivanchuk) going to move 20+; similarly with Ivan Sokolov's discussion in his recent book. (A recent NIC survey about the more solid 6...Bxc3 7. bc Re8 8. d3 e4 regards it as promising for White.)
The positions after 4...Bb4 aren't really sharp, but I guess it depends on what you're used to. Maybe I've been playing them too long, and take it for granted.
The theory was 20 moves after 4...d5 in the early '90s, and has only gotten deeper. Afterall, 4...d5 was the main line for many years before 4...Bb4 rose in popularity. 4...Bb4 doesn't have nearly the same number of lines going that deep. There's a couple, but not many in comparison.