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Please give a practical example.

In our category it's good.

Besides you don't have Elo 2700 nor 2600 nor 2500...

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Beam me up, Scotty! 

It was two weeks since I posted my opinion on White's hypertheoretical winning chances after 1.d4 without 1...Nf6. Therefore, I think it is about time I post something on Black's drawing/White's winning chances after 1.d4 Nf6.

First of all, we can eliminate all of White's alternatives to 2.c4 and 2.Nf3, since they all enable Black to either equalise effortlessly or favourably transpose into an improved version of another opening (e.g, 2.g3 d5). And the Trompowsky gives Black too many ways to equalise.

If Black meets 2.Nf3 with 2...e6 or 2...g6, then White has to play 3.c4 to hope for any winning chances (White's alternative methods of development are hypertheoretically toothless). 3.c4 will obviously transpose to 2.c4, so let's move on to that.

In this post I will only look at Black's alternatives to 2...g6 and 2...e6 (I personally think that 2...e6 is objectively stronger, but I'll get to that on a later post). 

2...b6 gives White large winning chances after 3.Nc3 Bb7 4.f3!, which leaves White clearly better (meaning a win in hyper-theoretical terms). 2...Nc6 is better, but after 3.Nf3 e6 4.Nc3 Bb4 5.Qc2, we reach a favourable Nimzo-Indian where White has a lasting edge (it is hard to increase it with best play, but I think it's possible). 2...c6 is hypertheoretically best out of Black's rare 2nd moves, transposing to a Slav after 3...d5. 

In my opinion, White has too many good lines in the Budapest Gambit (2...e5 3.de5 Ng4 4.Bf4), and White can either play 6.Nbd2 (a small but lasting edge, but very hard to increase) or the (hypertheoretically stronger) 6.Nc3, when I think that with best play White can win thanks to his extra pawn and Black's only temporary initiative.

After 2...c5 3.d5, moves such as 3...g6 and 3...d6 give White enough flexibility to claim a significant and growing advantage, while 3...e5 is rock solid, but White's position is very flexible and Black's plans are clear from move 3, so I suspect that White has some way to increase his small edge with his extra space and more active pieces. The Benko Gambit is theoretically doing well at the moment, but I suspect that 4.Qc2 is very good for White (with this comment I support a very small minority), since although both sides have potential to improve their position, I think that White's is greater in the middlegames, which constitutes good winning chances. I suggest this line only because the main lines are not working for White.

With best play from both sides, the Modern Benoni is probably a hyper-theoretical win for White, since Black has too many positional weaknesses, while Black's active play can be restrained almost completely with very best play (i.e the Modern variation).

I will get back to 2...g6 and 2...e6 on a later post. Obviously many people will disagree with parts of this post (especially on the Benko Gambit), but do keep in mind that I am approaching this topic from a hyper-theoretical perspective and not a practical perspective. For more information on how I am approaching this question, see my other large post.

So it seems that the top-dogs are:

1. Slav and Semi-Slav
2. Leningrad Dutch

Thanks to everyone who supplied opinions and comments.

Matemax wrote on 02/06/08 at 10:53:10:


Perhaps "confuse" and "bewilder" would be more appropriate in relation to computers than "fascinate"