GMTonyKosten wrote on 03/30/09 at 11:05:21:


I am not sure what that statistic would be based on if not something like having at least one layoff in one's household.  But of course, almost everyone is in some way affected by this.  

In this country the stock market collapse tore the hell out of most people's 401k's (tax-deferred savings accounts) and thus had a big effect on the "permanent income" of retirees and older workers.  This is a big factor, I am sure, behind the decline in consumer spending here.  I had about $320,000 in my 401k last year, this year (not having withdrawn anything) I have about $210,000.  My wife and I are fortunate that we both have decent pensions to look forward to, which is rare here in the states.  That's one reason I was taking an aggressive position with the 401k.  But we now are looking forward to a less cushy retirement than we had been, and this has affected our spending, notwithstanding that we both remain employed and continue to enjoy very good household income.

On an even less happy note, one of my daughters-in-law, a civil engineer with a Professional Engineer's certificate, no less, was laid off a couple of months ago and is having trouble finding another job.

But even though I indulge myself with a lot of chess books, chess isn't really a big enough share of our budget to be much affected by all of this.

GMTonyKosten wrote on 03/30/09 at 11:05:21:


Yes, most persons have not been touched in the sense that for the vast majority their jobs and their incomes are still intact. 

However, the issue is the uncertainly of a downward spiral with no end in sight means that even those whose incomes are not affected will spend less, since they worry about the future security of their jobs.  Plus, it does not take a large percentage of people to cut spending to have a significant impact on business.

Schaakhamster wrote on 03/29/09 at 13:25:12:

I doubt it, I saw somewhere that roughly 80% of people aren't touched by the recession at all, and some 5% are actually doing better.
I am personally buying more books at the moment ... but not chess books!

Schaakhamster wrote on 03/29/09 at 13:25:12:


They surely will...thats why I emphasised the relative nature of their outperformance.

A related question: what percentage of chess book purchases are essentially frivolous, in the sense that the purchaser will never actually engage with the material (and if they were brutally hinest with themselves, would have to admit it in advance)? I'm guessing it's a very high figure (80%?)...and there's the vulnerability of chess publishing right there in that stat.

But perhaps my % estimate is too high...maybe I'm just projecting  

Dink Heckler wrote on 03/29/09 at 13:22:24:


If the recession keeps up I do think they will also suffer.

I think that makes sense; studying and playing chess are pretty cheap pastimes (unless you are travelling helter-skelter to play....and even then, chess usually makes for a pretty cheap holiday).

I would imagine that chess publishing would be relatively recession-proof.

Or they keep drip-feeding you new material as soon as your position becomes resignable.