You are correct to point out that the ...Nc6 lines are irrelevant (although never +=, that Bf8-d6-f8 was funny)

To your last line you can add the forced 18...O-O 19.cd ed, and it's just a symbolic advantage to Black in a boring endgame.
Not a White's player dream.

If Bxe5 instead of dxe5 (move 13 or 14), we come back to our standard position with O-O-O & Rg8.
The exact position of the h-pawn does not change that no one can make real progress.

So 6.Bd3 remains a hard nut to crack.

I just thought of an exciting line:

6...Bg6 7.Bxg6 hg 8.Qe2 Nc6!? 9.Be3 e6 10.O-O-O Nd5 11.Nxd5 Qxd5 12.c4 Qf5 13.Rhf1 Nb4! 14.a3 Na2+ 15.Kd2 Bxa3!
16.ba Qa5+ 17.Kc2 Qc3+ 18.Kb1 Qb3+ 19.Qb2 Nc3+ 20.Ka1 Qxb2+ Kxb2 21.Kxb2 Nxd1+ 22.Rxd1 f6

After six consecutive checks, Black has emerged better  

EDIT:

calming down a bit I see it's hard to make progress here.
Still that's another line Black can use to draw at will, since I don't see where White could deviate.

There's 11.Ne4 Qd7 12.Ne5 Nxe5 13.de Be7 14.Kb1 (c4 Qc6) Qa4 15.Bg5 O-O-O 16.c4 Nb4 (again!) 17.a3 Nc6,
but Black has again at least a draw, and possibly more.

1.d4 d5 2.e4 dxe4 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.f3 exf3 5.Nxf3 Bf5 6.Bd3 Bxd3 7.Qxd3 c6 8.Bf4 e6 9.0-0-0) 9...Be7 10.h4 Nbd7 11.h5 Qa5 12.Ne5 Nxe5 13.Bxe5 h6 14.Qg3 Rg8 15.Rdf1 0-0-0 16.a3 Rdf8 17.Kb1 Nd7 18.Bf4 Nb6 19.Rf2 Nc4 20.Qd3

Uruk wrote on 05/30/09 at 15:34:42:

Well, 11...Qa5 attacks pawn h5, so 12. Ne5 is forced. Of the alternatives that White has, let me only mention five: 8. Bg5 (instead of Bf4), 10.g4 Nxg4 11.Rdf1 (instead of 10.h4), 11.Kb1 Qa5 12.Ne5 (instead of 11.h5), 14.Kb1 0-0-0 15.Rhf1 (instead of 14.Qg3), and 19.Qd3, as already mentioned. 

Uruk, I feel compelled to make a point... if the best that black can do is demonstrate a forced draw in 20+ moves, then:

a) That makes the BDG appear perfectly sound (especially given that, in general, after 20+ moves of most openings black has usually achieved equality)
b) It implies that, should white know the opening better than his opponent then, to use a Zilbermints-type argument, white is indeed doing very well (because, realistically, not all people are even capable of memorising 16-move-long variations, especially when they are unforced). As Stefan points out, there are ample possibilities for both sides to deviate, which (as in any other opening) do not necessarily constitute best play, but could work in practice. This looks very much like a game of chess to me.

The thread started out looking to prove a black advantage. It now seems to have resigned itself to proving a black equality. I would say that, for most BDG fanatics, this is going to be another huge success. Even the hardiest BDGers do not claim that the opening gives an advantage, simply that it gives adequate compensation in a complex position where white has a chance to outplay his opponent. Whilst the best available lines prove 20+ move "forced" draws, then the BDG is in good health indeed.

Stefan Buecker wrote on 05/29/09 at 21:32:08:


Plenty of alternatives? I think White has to be really precise to keep equilibrium.
19.Qd3 can hardly avoid the draw because after 22...Bf6 23.Qe3 b6
White must bail out with 24.Bxh6! ed 25.cd Bxb2! =

Stefan Buecker wrote on 05/29/09 at 21:32:08:


I meant there's also ...Ncd5 besides ...Bd6, although I doubt we have enough to push for the win.
So a good positional player can probably play the BDG and hold after all.

The conclusion about 9...Be7 is that after

10.h4 Nbd7 11.h5 Qa5 12.Ne5 Nxe5 13.Bxe5 h6 14.Qg3 Rg8 15.Rdf1 0-0-0 16.a3 Rdf8 17.Kb1 Nd7 18.Bf4 Nb6 19.Rf2 Nc4 20.Qd3

Black can force a draw with ...Nxb2 (enough to make the BDG uninteresting, I think),
nevertheless the passive position of the Rooks makes it difficult to play for the win.

9...Na6 (going to c7 instead of d7) could well be better.
After 10.a3 Nc7 11.h4 there is ...Ncd5 as well as ...Bd6
White is again fighting for resources.

Smyslov_Fan wrote on 05/29/09 at 07:00:07:


9...Na6 may or may not be cumbersome, but it's not as slow as it seems since the immediate threat is 10...Nb4 11.Q~ Nd5, exchanging another minor piece.  Further, what is White doing in the mean time?  I'm not sure which 9th move is best, and you may be right that 9...Be7 is good.  To me though, 9...Be7 looks worse than the other moves because it does nothing to inconvenience White.  Almost always when I'm a pawn up, I'm looking for ways to simplify, and in the BDG I think it's an excellent rule of thumb that Black needs to bring off at least two sets of minor pieces before he can hope to make good on his material advantage.

I haven't yet had the time to examine Stefan's analysis just above.  I certainly will, however, and return with my reaction.  But I note that in Stefan's latest line, fully three sets of minor pieces have come off, which in my view is quite hopeful for Black.

In general though, I am quite sympathetic to your remarks about the doubtful nature of White's compensation.  At best it seems just enough to maintain equality.  We have already established that Black has a not-very-difficult path to equality with 9...Bd6 10.Be5 Bxe5!?.  This makes Stefan happy because he only wants to show that 6.Bd3 does not result in disadvantage.  The question therefore is, does Black have more?   

As a postscript to my previous note...

I just re-read the earlier comments of Markovich.  If I've gained a pawn, I don't mind making one or two consolidating moves.  I find 9...Be7 more to my taste than 9...Na6.  However, the fact that Black has at least three moves that give him at least an equal game should show the dearth of White's ideas here.