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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen (Read 99430 times)
thibdb13
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Re: Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen
Reply #24 - 12/21/09 at 12:34:38
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Statistics tend to prove there is a global warming. OK, so what?
Is this all that bad? 
I mean, we are now only hearing of the nefast consequences of the warming. But aren't there any advantages to this? Couldn't we try to use this warming to make our planet a better place to live (at least on the dry parts of it).
Else, everyone says now Copenhague is a terrible failure. Was this result not expected?
They have only talked about CO2-emissions. As far as I konw, these emissions are not the most important factor in the global warning. So, no agreement on it does not mean that the result is a failure.
What well could called a failure is that:
- no one spoke about the water reserves
- no one spoke about the other sources of warming
- no one spoke about how to go further within 20/50 years when there won't be any oil/gas on earth...
Shouldn't we start with this?
  

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Re: Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen
Reply #23 - 12/20/09 at 13:08:27
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belaji wrote on 12/20/09 at 07:56:06:
China is playing this one very slyly. They have no intention of restricting their CO2 emissions yet they want to restrict everyone else's emissions. They think long term, unlike the west. Their economy is flat, or slowing. Somehow they think that this will benefit them. Why?

Because they are the ones doing the producing. As long as they can keep the cost low (by having cheap labour and cheap resources like coal) they will benefit in the long run.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Re: Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen
Reply #22 - 12/20/09 at 12:25:18
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belaji wrote on 12/20/09 at 07:56:06:
China is playing this one very slyly. They have no intention of restricting their CO2 emissions yet they want to restrict everyone else's emissions. They think long term, unlike the west. Their economy is flat, or slowing. Somehow they think that this will benefit them. Why?
What do they teach in schools today?

The economical system we live in today is generally called capitalism. If this is right, then economy is only driven by making as much money as possible. Everything else (ethical thougts b.e.) is only used if it helps profit. Capital and his daughter profit are both addicts. They want more and more and they don't see side-effects. So far the economical part.

Now the political part. In politics people are successful who think that power is fun. For them power is the most important part in their life. As said by all militarists in all times power comes from the arms.

B.e. the US congress decides to spend 650.000.000.000 $ for the military industrial complex including 150.000.000.000 $ for the two wars in Irak and Afghanistan. At the same time the congressman are not ready to spend 2.900.000.000 for developing countries helping them in the climate question. This is not written to blame the USA. This was in the news yesterday and I'm absolutely sure you will find the same everywhere else in the world.

This is the result of two structures: Capitalism and power seeking. Karl Marx was wiser than many of his readers when titling his book "Das Kapital". It was not "Der Kapitalist". This is no question of good or bad. People being content with their life and wanting to do something else than productive work most of their time are a threat to profit, politicians, militarists who want people to spend all their time with something 'productive', means profitable.

B.e.: Who has higher prestige: The person working 15 till 20 hours a week to earn their living or people spending 60 till 80 hours? And what would most people decide to do, if they really had the choice?

Do voters in democracy have the choice to vote for people standing on the side of the 20 hour week?

This has implications for the climate/co2-emission. You don't need much time to find them.
  

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belaji
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Re: Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen
Reply #21 - 12/20/09 at 07:56:06
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China is playing this one very slyly. They have no intention of restricting their CO2 emissions yet they want to restrict everyone else's emissions. They think long term, unlike the west. Their economy is flat, or slowing. Somehow they think that this will benefit them. Why?
  
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Antillian
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #20 - 12/18/09 at 17:37:41
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Markovich wrote on 12/18/09 at 16:18:29:
Antillian wrote on 12/18/09 at 15:08:55:
If only climate change was all an elaborate scam as the skeptics believe. Say it is so, say it is so. 

The abject failure of Copenhagen is becoming increasingly apparent. The sad thing is that the future of the world is being hijacked by weak and arrogant leaders from the world's largest countries, the same countries largely responsible for the creation of the problem. I include China and most of the developed world in this category. The world's smallest and poorest countries, which contribute least to this problem are the ones that will suffer dearly for the greed and indifference of the rich and powerful.


I'll buy that, but what is the problem for China with accepting verification?  Weak or strong, nefarious or noble, the leaders of the industrial West can't go home and tell their people that they have to accept strict and painful standards, but there is no guarantee that anyone else will, or at least, that China will.  How can there be a treaty based only on faith in the other signatories?  Particularly faith in China, which in all fairness, would have every incentive to cheat?


Well clearly China is a big part of the problem as well as one of the world's two largest polluters. Funny enough the earth does not seem to be able to distinguish between CO2 emissions from developed countries versus developing countries. But even if China were to agree to verification, there is still remains lack of will for the world's largest countries and significant polluters to do enough.


By the way, what is not clear to me though is if all major countries would be subject to this verification. I cannot seem to find the answer in any of the news reports. Clearly if it a case of the US saying to China, we don't trust you, but the US itself is not being subject to independent verification, China will never agree to that.
  

"Breakthrough results come about by a series of good decisions, diligently executed and accumulated one on top of another." Jim Collins --- Good to Great
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Re: Global Warming: CRU & Copenhagen
Reply #19 - 12/18/09 at 17:03:44
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The Associated Press review of the ClimateGate emails is discussed in the following link:
Review: E-mails show pettiness, not fraud

Both the skeptic and environmentalist camps tend to be firmly entrenched in their opinions regarding Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), cherry picking news items which support their side and disregarding contrasting views.

My personal take is: I just hope we get this one right. However, my gut feeling is that, since the variables in question are not directly measurable, interpretation (or even choice) of the actual data will always be uncertain (not to mention subject to bias). With nothing provable to everyone's satisfaction, no real action will be taken. Atmospheric CO2 levels will continue to rise, passing 400 ppm, 450 ppm, and so on. It won't be a conscious decision to just roll the dice, just political inertia.

Eventually the indisputable data will become available and there will either be a collective sigh of relief or a chorus of "Oh @&$&%^, we're screwed!"

Since we're going to find out the hard way, I hope the AGW skeptics are right.  If they're wrong, getting to say "I told you so" is just not going to be much consolation.
  

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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #18 - 12/18/09 at 16:34:26
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Edited:
Moderator's note: Since the discussion is not just about pilfered e-mails I am changing the title of the forum thread.
 
~SF
  
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #17 - 12/18/09 at 16:18:29
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Antillian wrote on 12/18/09 at 15:08:55:
If only climate change was all an elaborate scam as the skeptics believe. Say it is so, say it is so. 

The abject failure of Copenhagen is becoming increasingly apparent. The sad thing is that the future of the world is being hijacked by weak and arrogant leaders from the world's largest countries, the same countries largely responsible for the creation of the problem. I include China and most of the developed world in this category. The world's smallest and poorest countries, which contribute least to this problem are the ones that will suffer dearly for the greed and indifference of the rich and powerful.


I'll buy that, but what is the problem for China with accepting verification?  Weak or strong, nefarious or noble, the leaders of the industrial West can't go home and tell their people that they have to accept strict and painful standards, but there is no guarantee that anyone else will, or at least, that China will.  How can there be a treaty based only on faith in the other signatories?  Particularly faith in China, which in all fairness, would have every incentive to cheat?
  

The Great Oz has spoken!
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #16 - 12/18/09 at 15:08:55
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If only climate change was all an elaborate scam as the skeptics believe. Say it is so, say it is so. 

The abject failure of Copenhagen is becoming increasingly apparent. The sad thing is that the future of the world is being hijacked by weak and arrogant leaders from the world's largest countries, the same countries largely responsible for the creation of the problem. I include China and most of the developed world in this category. The world's smallest and poorest countries, which contribute least to this problem are the ones that will suffer dearly for the greed and indifference of the rich and powerful.
  

"Breakthrough results come about by a series of good decisions, diligently executed and accumulated one on top of another." Jim Collins --- Good to Great
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belaji
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #15 - 12/17/09 at 07:24:01
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Climategate goes SERIAL: now the Russians confirm that UK climate scientists manipulated data to exaggerate global warming 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-ser...

Yes, climategate is a big deal...
  
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #14 - 12/15/09 at 04:35:53
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DOE sends a “litigation hold notice” regarding CRU to employees – asking to “preserve documents”

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/14/doe-sends-a-litigation-hold-notice-regardi...

This is getting bigger.
  
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #13 - 12/10/09 at 15:10:57
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MNb

You are correct about the conspiracy theorists:

"Andrew Weaver, a modeler with the University of Victoria General Circulation Modeling Unit, has attracted considerable attention with his allegations that computer thefts at the University of Victoria were smoking gun proof of teleconnections between American fossil fuel interests, Russian secret agents and Climategate."
  
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #12 - 12/10/09 at 14:16:49
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What possible reason would CRU have to cook the data to "hide the decline", etc? How about this possibility: $22.6 million in funding with much more to come?

And guess who else they want money from?

"From: "Mick Kelly" <m.kelly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Shell
Date: Wed, 05 Jul 2000 13:31:00 +0100

Mike
Had a very good meeting with Shell yesterday..."

No big deal I guess since everybody is an idiot and weakling anyway.
  
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MNb
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #11 - 12/07/09 at 20:16:41
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Nothing new under the sun. Try Charles Babbage's Reflections on the Decline of Science in England, and on Some of Its Causes from 1830.
Popper and Kuhn depict an ideal scientific world. That is something to strive for, but unlikely to be realized. Of course that makes Stigma's demand for openness even more important.
  

The book had the effect good books usually have: it made the stupids more stupid, the intelligent more intelligent and the other thousands of readers remained unchanged.
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Re: CRU Hack
Reply #10 - 12/07/09 at 19:46:28
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Stigma wrote on 12/07/09 at 19:24:55:
This really goes to the heart of the philosophy of science. My gold standard is the Popperian ideal of the disinterested scientist setting up hypotheses and trying to refute them. But of course Kuhn and Lakatos have shown that scientists are all too human: They become attached to their pet theories and the reputations they have built on them, and often try to find more support for them instead of directly pitting rival hypotheses against each other.

This makes it all the more important for data and knowledge to be public. If they are, science as a whole can over time be self-correcting even though individual scientists are not.

I know my Popper and Kuhn, but the extent amazed me, in particular the non-scientific part.

I am not sure how applicable this is to all this as it is not as much falsification what they are doing, but more of a "modeltuning". Ie when I have a model and something proves the model wrong, then I tweak the model. Nothing wrong with that approach, but the risk of tunnelvision is way higher and the falsification is near impossible. Let's say I make a model that correlated births and storks based on the amount of sunlight reaching a square meter on the ground. Now for every erronic measurement I can tweak the model, which makes it very difficult to prove I am BS-ing.
  

If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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