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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Openings that you suspect are a forced loss? (Read 45101 times)
TN
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #24 - 08/10/11 at 08:00:57
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GabrielGale wrote on 08/10/11 at 04:30:05:
TN wrote on 08/08/11 at 21:01:14:

Don't panic! My new book, 'Play the Suttles Sniper', will be published in the next week, and refutes 1.e4, based on analysis by a team of Duncan Suttles, Charlie Storey and Roman Dzindzichashvili.


Hey, TN, I enjoy your posts and learned much from them but don't bag Duncan Suttles nor place him in the same category as Charlie Sniper or Roman Dzindi. Even Yasser endorsed him, you can't say that of Sniper, can you?

Suttles never proselytise like Sniper and said you muct play like him. In fact Bruce Harper expressly told readers not to play like Suttles or play at own risk. Suttles never peddled DVDs promising crushing wins with White or Black like Roman.  You cannot blame a GM for trying to get out of book as quickly as you can. Look at Bent Larsen, or for that matter, look at the recent games of Matthew Sadler, this from the author of the books on QGD, Slav and Semi-Slav. And look, what did Svidler play against Kramnik and win? The Reti/Reversed KI!


It wasn't my intention to bag out Suttles; in fact I have had a lot of fun playing some of his openings online. With my post I was trying to show that the nature of repertoire books are that soon after one repertoire book is published, a repertoire book for the other side is also published. I've even seen cases of authors writing a repertoire book on one opening and later write a book on how to beat that opening. I included Suttles in the above post to try and show that Storey and Dzindzichashvili also have original ideas in their works. 

I am sorry if my post offended you.
  

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Stefan Buecker
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #23 - 08/10/11 at 07:37:58
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Smyslov_Fan wrote on 08/10/11 at 06:29:40:
Just FYI: The class players still see a statistical advantage for being white. In games between players rated under 1800, that difference is about 53-47% for white. 

As a point of comparison, +2500 rated players have an average of 55-45%.

So yes, the advantage of the first move is real, even for fish. It's only slightly more pronounced among grandmasters.

An interesting hypothesis, but I am not sure whether this is right for all kind of systems. Look at the Open Sicilian (B34-B99). In MegaBase (2008), in games between 2500+ players, White scores 56%. In games between 1800- players, White scores only 48%. 

The numbers for the Closed Sicilian (2.Nc3): 2500+ White scores 51%; 1800- White scores 52%. (In each case, I have only looked at 1975 and later, not the pre-Elo era.)

And not to forget 2.a4, of course, which scores 57%.
  
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Smyslov_Fan
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #22 - 08/10/11 at 06:29:40
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Just FYI: The class players still see a statistical advantage for being white. In games between players rated under 1800, that difference is about 53-47% for white. 

As a point of comparison, +2500 rated players have an average of 55-45%.

So yes, the advantage of the first move is real, even for fish. It's only slightly more pronounced among grandmasters.
  
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Fromper
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #21 - 08/10/11 at 05:00:23
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MNb wrote on 08/09/11 at 22:12:57:
Fromper wrote on 08/09/11 at 15:51:24:
And above 2000 rating level, I'm sure you're right. But in the U1800 sections of tournaments, I honestly don't believe that the first move advantage even exists. So why not play silly stuff as white that only leads to equality, as long as you're having fun doing it?

Because some players in that U1800 section want to qualify for higher sections. For them the Morra Gambit is a waste of time, as I found out the hard way.

As I mentioned a few posts ago, I've actually learned more from playing the Smith-Morra Gambit than any other opening I've played. I've given up on quite a few gambits, most of them probably unsound, but this is the one that's still in my repertoire, as my primary opening line anyway. There are a couple of others I'll trot out on rare occasion, but they aren't my main weapons the way the SMG is against the Sicilian.

I am working on learning other lines against the Sicilian, as I figure the gambit probably isn't going to be worth the work learn as well as I'd need to use it against 2000+ level players. But for now, I'm quite happy with it.

  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #20 - 08/10/11 at 04:30:05
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TN wrote on 08/08/11 at 21:01:14:

Don't panic! My new book, 'Play the Suttles Sniper', will be published in the next week, and refutes 1.e4, based on analysis by a team of Duncan Suttles, Charlie Storey and Roman Dzindzichashvili.


Hey, TN, I enjoy your posts and learned much from them but don't bag Duncan Suttles nor place him in the same category as Charlie Sniper or Roman Dzindi. Even Yasser endorsed him, you can't say that of Sniper, can you?

Suttles never proselytise like Sniper and said you muct play like him. In fact Bruce Harper expressly told readers not to play like Suttles or play at own risk. Suttles never peddled DVDs promising crushing wins with White or Black like Roman.  You cannot blame a GM for trying to get out of book as quickly as you can. Look at Bent Larsen, or for that matter, look at the recent games of Matthew Sadler, this from the author of the books on QGD, Slav and Semi-Slav. And look, what did Svidler play against Kramnik and win? The Reti/Reversed KI!
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #19 - 08/09/11 at 22:12:57
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Fromper wrote on 08/09/11 at 15:51:24:
And above 2000 rating level, I'm sure you're right. But in the U1800 sections of tournaments, I honestly don't believe that the first move advantage even exists. So why not play silly stuff as white that only leads to equality, as long as you're having fun doing it?

Because some players in that U1800 section want to qualify for higher sections. For them the Morra Gambit is a waste of time, as I found out the hard way.
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #18 - 08/09/11 at 17:57:32
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It could be mentioned that Leon Pliester (a Dutch IM) had an article on the Halloween in the Yearbook a few months ago; he appeared to think that it should be "minus-plus-vertical" as Radjabov might say (clearly better for Black).
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #17 - 08/09/11 at 16:59:42
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On another note, since someone else mentioned it, I thought I read that the Halloween Gambit had been analyzed to the point of being a pretty much forced draw. That's another one that looks like it could be fun, but I'd want to spend a ton of time preparing before trying it. Giving up a whole knight isn't like giving up just a pawn. I'd want to be REALLY prepared.


If Halloween gambit is a draw, it is not easy to find something that is losing!
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #16 - 08/09/11 at 16:53:37
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Extremely odd to suggest that Sicillian players don't like careful defence though, because thats rather hugely important in the open.


Maybe it didn't come across as I meant, but in many lines of Sicilian black is the one doing the attacking, like dragon, many lines of Najdorf. Yes, black also have to be careful on defense, but they are also counter attacking. In Morra-Gambit, black is not counter attacking; they are just playing quite defensive moves, dealing with all the white threats. 

  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #15 - 08/09/11 at 15:51:24
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Uhohspaghettio wrote on 08/09/11 at 00:23:11:
Fromper wrote on 08/08/11 at 22:46:55:
Umm... no. My opponents aren't that high rated, and I rarely play correspondence. My point was just that I know guys rated 1800-2000 who insist the gambit is completely unsound, and I shouldn't play it, but they can't seem to prove why. And despite checking some of the literature on the subject and looking around a little on the internet, I have yet to see any sort of definite refutation, either.


They "can't seem to prove why" because there is no proof. Even Carlsen couldn't "prove" that it's unsound. Some people seem to have odd ideas about openings like this.   

Houdini gives the position as about -0.05 and even though it would be silly to rely on computers, it's probably about right here and equality is reason enough not to play it as White and throw away your advantage. 

You may as well play 1. a3 or 1. e3 and say "Black thinks he's so good, bet he won't be able to prove my opening wrong"... it's not a lost game, it's just silly. There is no point. 


And above 2000 rating level, I'm sure you're right. But in the U1800 sections of tournaments, I honestly don't believe that the first move advantage even exists. So why not play silly stuff as white that only leads to equality, as long as you're having fun doing it? 

And especially in the case of the Smith-Morra Gambit, white has great development and positional pressure in exchange for the pawn. It may be equal, but it's a great opening to learn from, and a lot of fun to play. Now that I'm looking to improve to 1800+ and play 2000+ level players more often, I'm looking at adding the Open and/or Grand Prix to my repertoire, as well, but I'm not quite ready to give up the SMG entirely yet.

And since you mentioned 1. a3 and 1. e3, I'm reminded of a game I played recently, where I played black against 1. a3 e5 2. e3 d5 3. d4 - a French with colors reversed! Luckily, I know the French well enough that even in blitz, I was able to quickly pick a line that I know pretty well where a6 would normally be a waste of time for black in the normal French. So I got a decent French position and went on to win.

On another note, since someone else mentioned it, I thought I read that the Halloween Gambit had been analyzed to the point of being a pretty much forced draw. That's another one that looks like it could be fun, but I'd want to spend a ton of time preparing before trying it. Giving up a whole knight isn't like giving up just a pawn. I'd want to be REALLY prepared.
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #14 - 08/09/11 at 08:40:06
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The smith morra is one of those openings that quite a few people would like to be a forced loss - it is a fairly silly waste of a pawn after all Smiley But well, white is white.... See also the Blackmar Deimer etc.

Extremely odd to suggest that Sicillian players don't like careful defence though, because thats rather hugely important in the open.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #13 - 08/09/11 at 03:29:36
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I seriously doubt that the halloween gambit would take "a huge amount" of analysis to prove -+. Less than a day i'd say.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #12 - 08/09/11 at 03:24:08
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You may as well play 1. a3 or 1. e3 and say "Black thinks he's so good, bet he won't be able to prove my opening wrong"... it's not a lost game, it's just silly. There is no point. 


From objective point of view of course, but from practical? Against 1.a3 or 1.e3 black can play pretty much anything they want to, while the Morra Gambit forces black to play what many Sicilian players don't like: play careful defense.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #11 - 08/09/11 at 03:19:59
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kevinfat wrote on 08/04/11 at 08:00:01:
Do you guys have a list of openings that you suspect/guess are forced losses? But that proving so would take HUGE HUGE unreasonable amount of analysis. Please list those candidate opening you believe/estimate are losses  (Traxler(black loss), Lolli attack(black loss) etc.).


I think the Halloween Gambit fits this description. I am pretty sure it's a forced loss, but I just don't care enough to study it as black.

Also, this strange 1. e4 e5 2.f4 exf4 3. g3?! might be objectively lost for white, but again I just don't feel studying that line.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #10 - 08/09/11 at 00:23:11
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Fromper wrote on 08/08/11 at 22:46:55:
Umm... no. My opponents aren't that high rated, and I rarely play correspondence. My point was just that I know guys rated 1800-2000 who insist the gambit is completely unsound, and I shouldn't play it, but they can't seem to prove why. And despite checking some of the literature on the subject and looking around a little on the internet, I have yet to see any sort of definite refutation, either.


They "can't seem to prove why" because there is no proof. Even Carlsen couldn't "prove" that it's unsound. Some people seem to have odd ideas about openings like this.   

Houdini gives the position as about -0.05 and even though it would be silly to rely on computers, it's probably about right here and equality is reason enough not to play it as White and throw away your advantage. 

You may as well play 1. a3 or 1. e3 and say "Black thinks he's so good, bet he won't be able to prove my opening wrong"... it's not a lost game, it's just silly. There is no point.
  
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