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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Openings that you suspect are a forced loss? (Read 45064 times)
TN
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #54 - 08/15/11 at 16:04:37
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I also find it hard to believe that 2.a4 could be as good as 2.Nf3 or 2.Nc3, except from a hypertheoretical perspective (all of these moves lead to a draw).
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #53 - 08/15/11 at 13:08:30
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Maybe the point of 1.e4 c5 2.a4 is to let down any theory and just play chess
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #52 - 08/15/11 at 09:19:47
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Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/14/11 at 21:38:46:


My 48% argument wasn't meant as warning U1800s to avoid 2.Nf3. But we might speculate about the reasons. Couldn't it be that players with a lower rating don't have the confidence to play 2.Nf3 as it should be played - with the occasional sacrifice of a piece, with the various topical exchange sacrifices, with opposite castling? So they start with 2.Nf3 and 3.d4, and you like their good moves. Then they retreat active pieces, don't trust their calculations, and find themselves in a simplified situation where Black has a strong center. I am not surprised that white U1800s are scoring 7% below expectations in the Open. It requires dynamic play.


I think you are right about this. How many U1800 players regularly play Nd5 sacs, e.g.?
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #51 - 08/15/11 at 09:13:56
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Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/13/11 at 08:24:11:
Concrete analyses by Top GMs haven't had much influence, they often start at move 15. Anyway, players of all levels did find a few results: 

In the Dutch 1.d4 f5 set-ups with an early e4 are not successful. For example, the Staunton Gambit 2.e4 leads to exchanges and simplification (=). 


I find this a very strange example. In the Staunton, black can hold on to the pawn, making white give up the bishop pair to get it back. However, after 2.Nc3 Black does everything he can to prevent e2-e4.

In the opening it's a good idea to try to get influence in the centre, practically all acknowledged openings are aiming for control of 1-2 particular centre squares. 

But what is the point of 1.e4 c5 2.a4 centre-wise? I see that there can be some ideas about getting a kind of Bb5-system but with the f-pawn unblocked by a Nf3 - though I doubt there will be time to play f4 after already having indulged in 2.a4. 

But playing a move without centre influence so early is likely to give black more options or at least improve the chances in more options, even if white hasn't committed to a certain set-up yet. 

For example, after 2...a6 or 2...g6 I don't see what white can claim to have gained which would give him chances as good as after 2.Nf3. 

Just claiming "equality" for white would not be enough, as in the open Sicilian equality is the prize Black gets for avoiding a lot of inferior positions on the way. So starting with equality and comparing with the ML Najdorf is a case of comparing pineapples to apples - they sound similar but look completely different.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #50 - 08/15/11 at 04:57:12
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Markovich wrote on 08/15/11 at 02:18:55:
Come on, Stefan.  2.a4 is just as good as 2.Nf3?

There really is very scant basis, apart from principle, for disputing the merit of various choices at move 2. And so, having tossed aside chess principles, you are free to maintain such opinions without any real risk of specific analsis proving you wrong. But that one is exceedingly far-fetched, and I respectfully doubt that you have a tree of variations deep enough or robust enough to support it.

Eventually all in chess is specificity, but that doesn't mean that principles are worthless. You could just as well say that 1.a3 is just as good as 1.d4, you know?

Did you see the link? Before criticizing you could at least look at my article. I am tired of the empty talk. Give me a concrete suggestion for Black. I think the logic (principles, if you want) behind the move is pretty good, and yes, I have a tree of variations which only partly went into the article. 

I don't think I ever wrote on 1.a3. My principles do tell me that 1.e4 c5 2.h4 or 2.Nh3 or 2.Qf3 are dubious. However, my principles don't tell me whether 2.Na3 or 2.a4 is better. Sometimes there is no alternative to concrete analysis.

Larry Evans condemned unorthodox ideas. I remember one of his articles in Chess Life, where he found one error in a long analysis by Weaver Adams. On this basis alone Evans attacked Adams in a rude manner, quoting "principles in chess" and that A.'s stuff should never have been printed and so on. With a little effort of his own Evans could have repaired the analysis. But no, he had his principles, and filling two pages with empty phrases meant more to him than simply trying to find a better move.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #49 - 08/15/11 at 02:18:55
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Come on, Stefan.  2.a4 is just as good as 2.Nf3?

There really is very scant basis, apart from principle, for disputing the merit of various choices at move 2. And so, having tossed aside chess principles, you are free to maintain such opinions without any real risk of specific analsis proving you wrong. But that one is exceedingly far-fetched, and I respectfully doubt that you have a tree of variations deep enough or robust enough to support it.

Eventually all in chess is specificity, but that doesn't mean that principles are worthless. You could just as well say that 1.a3 is just as good as 1.d4, you know?
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #48 - 08/14/11 at 22:51:57
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Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/14/11 at 21:38:46:
[quote author=2C2F03610 link=1312444801/44#44 date=1313350536]Play the Morra on Monday, 2.Nf3 on Tuesday and 2.b4 on Wednesday, why not?


Because it's known to be better, at least at higher levels, to stick to and develop a repertoire. I think Botvinnik was the first person to openly declare this idea, and said he could fit it all in one notebook. In fact it's absolute beginners that play something different every day of the week. 

If you're learning a math book, you don't do part of chapter one monday, part of chapter two tuesday etc., it's easier to study one thing at the time or you just won't know what you're doing.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #47 - 08/14/11 at 21:38:46
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MNb wrote on 08/14/11 at 19:35:36:
Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
Is there really no point - 80%, 90%, 99% - at which you say: "it's too much - now I am playing 2.Nc3"? Psychology is part of the game
You still avoid my counterargument that this applies to say the Löwenfish as well. Similar approaches are possible against the Sveshnikov as well. If you don't believe, consult Davies' Tame the Sicilian. It contains an entire repertoire based on the Open Sicilian and still is smaller than several books I own on several Anti-Sicilians. [...]

Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
Then you claimed again that 2.Nc3 wasn't to be recommended, and that, somehow, 2.Nf3 was the right move. [...]

No, I did not claim that. I claimed that "tons of theory" is the wrong reason to avoid the Open Sicilian, simply because White does not need to study tons of theory to play it. [...] 
Moreover I made another point - an ambitious amateur of U1800, who wants to improve, should usually focus on relatively simple strategy and complex tactics instead of complex strategy and simple tactics. Then offbeat Open Sicilians are perfect. [...] So for the zillionth time: your arguments to avoid the Open Sicilian are wrong. That doesn't imply that 2.Nf3 is better than 2.b3 or 2.Nc3. [...] What I argue is simply this (also for the zillionth time): your arguments to play various Anti-Sicilians also apply to the Löwenfish and the sidelines of the Sveshnikov I mentioned. [...]

I argue for variety in chess and see no reason why non-Nf3-playing U1800s are so often cornered in this forum by the gang of 2.Nf3 advocates. My contribution in this thread was merely the observation that U1800 players score only 48% with 2.Nf3/3.d4. I haven't used a "tons of theory" argument. In my opinion everybody is able to play, after 15 minutes of competent introduction, the Grünfeld, the Nimzo-Indian or the Spanish. 20 minutes for the Catalan. Anybody is free to play the Löwenfish. Or "tame" the Sicilian by means of an early g3. I have not the slightest problems with 2.d4 cxd4 3.Qxd4 Nc6 4.Qd3 - fine with me. About "postponing" the decision to play 2.Nf3 for years - huh? Play the Morra on Monday, 2.Nf3 on Tuesday and 2.b4 on Wednesday, why not? 

I try to understand your line of argumentation. Probably you are assuming that people who don't play 2.Nf3 have an unconscious or conscious fear of too much theory behind 2.Nf3, and are therefore avoiding 2.Nf3 for this reason. That's pretty absurd in my opinion, but such people with distorted ideas about theory may indeed exist. What can we do to cure them? I'd say: who cares? 2.Nc3 or 2.a4 are objectively just as good as 2.Nf3. You try to convince them to make a therapy, looking at sections of the Sicilian which don't look so terribly complicated. Okay, go ahead. In an environment of 99% 2.Nf3 you will still do the same? 

My 48% argument wasn't meant as warning U1800s to avoid 2.Nf3. But we might speculate about the reasons. Couldn't it be that players with a lower rating don't have the confidence to play 2.Nf3 as it should be played - with the occasional sacrifice of a piece, with the various topical exchange sacrifices, with opposite castling? So they start with 2.Nf3 and 3.d4, and you like their good moves. Then they retreat active pieces, don't trust their calculations, and find themselves in a simplified situation where Black has a strong center. I am not surprised that white U1800s are scoring 7% below expectations in the Open. It requires dynamic play.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #46 - 08/14/11 at 20:15:27
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Fromper wrote on 08/08/11 at 22:46:55:
My point was just that I know guys rated 1800-2000 who insist the gambit is completely unsound, and I shouldn't play it, but they can't seem to prove why. And despite checking some of the literature on the subject and looking around a little on the internet, I have yet to see any sort of definite refutation, either.

This is a good reason to keep on playing the Morra Gambit. I only noted that it doesn't apply anymore as soon as White faces stronger opponents.

Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
I gave analyses showing that 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 e6 3.g3 (or even 3.f4 d5 4.d3) 3...d5 is good for White.

This is a good reason to play 2.Nc3. Alas I'm too weak to take benefit of it. I lack the necessary positional skills.

Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
I am not religious about converting you to give up 2.Nf3.

You don't have to, because I have played OTB the Morra Gambit, the GPA and even Bb5-variations way more often than the Open Sicilian (only 4 games; score 2½).
In corr. chess I have played the Open Sicilian more often, overall with good results.
Moreover with my Dutch ELO about 1800 I don't belong to the biased stronger players who prefer 2.Nf3 and 3.d4.
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #45 - 08/14/11 at 19:41:14
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My reasoning is simple: Both Open Sicilians and Anti-Sicilians will develop your chess, but if you have to choose between the Open Sicilian and a few Anti-Sicilians as White, Open Sicilians will develop your chess more. Debatable of course, but that is my point of view.
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #44 - 08/14/11 at 19:35:36
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Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
Is there really no point - 80%, 90%, 99% - at which you say: "it's too much - now I am playing 2.Nc3"? Psychology is part of the game

You still avoid my counterargument that this applies to say the Löwenfish as well. Similar approaches are possible against the Sveshnikov as well. If you don't believe, consult Davies' Tame the Sicilian. It contains an entire repertoire based on the Open Sicilian and still is smaller than several books I own on several Anti-Sicilians.
As for the Sveshnikov: 6.Nf3 is an easy solution. So is 7.Nd5. White has done well with 9.Bxf6 gxf6 10.Nd5 and 11.g3. I would like to recommend the piece sac 11.Bxb5 too, but Black can avoid it with 10...Bg7. Maybe someone likes 11.c3 Bg7 (f5) 12.exf5 Bxf5 13.Nc2 0-0 14.Nce3 Be6 15.g3 better.
Before anyone screams: "but Black can equalize this or that way!" remember: 1.e4 c5 is equal anyhow. If there is an edge after all for White an U1800 player will not be able to maintain it anyway, certainly not in the sophisticated lines you recommend after 1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 e6.

Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/12/11 at 21:49:59:
Then you claimed again that 2.Nc3 wasn't to be recommended, and that, somehow, 2.Nf3 was the right move. While I believe that many "Antis" are fine weapons (including b3, which I played for a while), I am not religious about converting you to give up 2.Nf3.

No, I did not claim that. I claimed that "tons of theory" is the wrong reason to avoid the Open Sicilian, simply because White does not need to study tons of theory to play it. My point of view is this: 1.e4 c5 is equal anyway. So the way to go is posing problems. If anyone thinks he/she can do that with 2.b3, the Closed Sicilian, the GPA or even 2.a4, go ahead.
Moreover I made another point - an ambitious amateur of U1800, who wants to improve, should usually focus on relatively simple strategy and complex tactics instead of complex strategy and simple tactics. Then offbeat Open Sicilians are perfect.
What I specifically attack is the idea of "the Open Sicilians are too much work now, I'll postpone it for a few years". This will lead to postponing it eternally.
Yochanan Afek said something similar about taking up the Ruy Lopez vs. sticking to the Scotch.

If anyone has positive reasons to play some Anti-Sicilian, he/she has my blessings. These days I play 1.d4, so it's not a question for me anymore. Except that the NID, Rubinstein Variation (4.e3) is also equal. Still I have a positive score with it, in corr. chess.

Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/13/11 at 08:24:11:
if Sveshnikov is solved. But this cheering about the strength of 2.Nf3 is ridiculous.

Then you can wait until the cows come home. And again: I don't cheer about the strength of 2.Nf3. This is another logical fallacy. This one is called a strawman.
So for the zillionth time: your arguments to avoid the Open Sicilian are wrong. That doesn't imply that 2.Nf3 is better than 2.b3 or 2.Nc3. I am certainly not stupid enough to argue that the Löwenfish is stronger than the Czerniak Variation, the Closed and the GPA.
What I argue is simply this (also for the zillionth time): your arguments to play various Anti-Sicilians also apply to the Löwenfish and the sidelines of the Sveshnikov I mentioned. This is exactly what I wrote in the first sentence of this post.
  

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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #43 - 08/13/11 at 09:07:20
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Stefan Buecker wrote on 08/13/11 at 08:24:11:
Here it is best to ruin your pawn structure for the ending, open the game prematurely, allow all kind of forcing lines and simplifications. And even with best play from Black, White has "winning chances". 

[snip] But this cheering about the strength of 2.Nf3 is ridiculous.


I don't remember exactly what I've said, but I would like to say that I don't necessarily cheer for 2.Nf3 because of it "strength". I am more against the whole idea of players rated below a certain level playing other lines because 2.Nf3 is played so often. It is easier to play good moves and win from a good position than from a worse one.

Of course, 2.Nf3 and 3.d4 seem critical - not necessarily better, even though I also suspect it is anyway - because White has the opening advantage and wants to get the initative by opening the position. As we all know, in closed positions, the significance of a tempo is not as useful as in open positions. Anyway, I want to learn how to play many systems well, in that case I have more fun (at the risk of learning to little about too much) and also can respond to moves like 2. a4, because I know systems in which this move is not needed, or even harmful.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #42 - 08/13/11 at 08:24:11
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Concrete analyses by Top GMs haven't had much influence, they often start at move 15. Anyway, players of all levels did find a few results: 

In the Dutch 1.d4 f5 set-ups with an early e4 are not successful. For example, the Staunton Gambit 2.e4 leads to exchanges and simplification (=). 

Against 1.f4, neither the immediate 1...e5 (+=) nor the various plans after 1...d5 which prepare e7-e5 can fully equalize. 

In the English Opening 1.c4 e5 2.Nc3, only few players like to play 2...Nf6 followed by d5. 

The Spanish is sometimes regarded as White's best system in the Open Games. In contrast to 3.d4 or other "faster" systems it often requires patient manoeuvering. 

[sarcasm] But of course, the Sicilian is the one and only exception. Here it is best to ruin your pawn structure for the ending, open the game prematurely, allow all kind of forcing lines and simplifications. And even with best play from Black, White has "winning chances". [/sarcasm]

Play 2.Nf3, if you want. Maybe one day I'll join the 2.Nf3 camp, if Sveshnikov is solved. But this cheering about the strength of 2.Nf3 is ridiculous.
  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #41 - 08/13/11 at 01:54:58
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Stefan, inquiring about alternatives to standard lines is great! Recommending 1.e4 c5 2.a4... not so much.

I am certainly glad there are players such as yourself out there to force the followers of orthodoxy to examine their sins and paths to righteousness. I am even certain that there are many ways that White can play against the Sicilian that don't lose.

The concrete approach you take must be a correct approach. But I am also just about certain that the Open Sicilian offers white better chances to win against Black's best play. This isn't just based on craven orthodoxy, but the concrete analysis of generations of top grandmasters (and my own meager attempts in correspondence games).

I tend to play the black side of the Sicilian far more often than I do the white side, and I feel that Black is teetering on the edge against the Open lines. Other lines don't challenge Black's set-up as critically as the Open Sicilian.

I may lose to you after you play 2.a4, but it will be in spite of your opening choice rather than because of it. I even believe that if you were to play the black side of the Sicilian after 2.a4, you would find several good ways to gain an equal game. 



  
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Re: Openings that you suspect are a forced loss?
Reply #40 - 08/12/11 at 21:55:14
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As a player around Fromper's level, or a little higher (1900-2000 OTB), I can confirm that the advantage of the first move is essentially swamped by the randomness of play at this level.  My results with Black are as good, or better than, my results with the White pieces (This is, probably, because I spend a lot of time on my Black openings, but just play chess with White.  Yes, I realize this is dumb.  I have a great score against my Black repertoire - all my own openings are clearly a forced loss!)

Anyway, all I'm trying to say is that for players "down here with the rest of us," playing OTB chess below master strength, opening choice is far more a matter of taste than theoretical validity.  In all probability you will play three or four "second-best" theoretical recommendations and end up in the hinterlands of theory (if not out of it entirely) by move 12.   And if you don't, your opponent will play the London System or something and make "theory" borderline irrelevant.

So the Smith-Morra is probably as good as anything else, although I can't imagine a gambit player not enjoying the actual Open Sicilian, myself.
  
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