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Poll

Question: Who will win the Euro 2012?


* This poll has now closed *
Poland 0 (0.0%) Russia 0 (0.0%) Czech Rep. 0 (0.0%) Netherlands 3 (8.6%) Portugal 1 (2.9%) Germany 11 (31.4%) Spain 6 (17.1%) Italy 3 (8.6%) France 2 (5.7%) England 2 (5.7%) Sweden 1 (2.9%) Ukraine 0 (0.0%) Greece 1 (2.9%) Either Croatia or Ireland 4 (11.4%) Denmark 1 (2.9%) Total votes: 35 « Last Modified by: Smyslov_Fan on: 06/16/12 at 13:38:19 »

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Euro 2012 - The Poll (Read 83172 times)

Jupp53 YaBB Moderator Offline be Posts: 988 Location: Frankfurt/Main Joined: 01/04/09 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #120 - 06/17/12 at 14:07:02	Post Tools	Print Post
	Quote: It alos seems that Italy is out if Spain-Croatia ends 2-2, causing some commotion in Italian papers. One wonders why they get so suspicious? at least there are not many arranged draws in football. A little song to cheer up... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW9R7ePry9s You really wonder about a nation voting several times for Berlusconi being suspicious about the possibility of corruption? They must like it. Watching Portugal seems to be distracted by looking at C. Ronaldo. The curse of money distracts from the fact he was still playing like an over average winger and the team was not so bad organized. So if the Dutch team manages to reorganize and win by two goals it will probably a wake-up call till the final. Denmark against Germany is a 50% match. Löw will change his team for two combined reasons: There are some good players sitting on the bank and giving them a time on the playground will be motivating the team. Secondly the forced change on the position of Boateng invites some tactical thoughts as the exchange of Podolski etc. I'm sure the German team will do what they are able to do to beat Denmark. But how strong will they act under this conditions?

	Medical textbooks say I should be dead since April 2002. Dum spiro spero. Narcissm is the humans primary disease.
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zoo Ex Member	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #119 - 06/17/12 at 12:57:25	Post Tools	Print Post
	Yes, France is out if Sweden beats france more largely than Ukraine beats England. Ukraine must win to advance, France or England advance if they score one point. If both France & England win, the group leader (potentially avoiding Spain) will be decided by overall goal-average, France leading by +1 so far. It alos seems that Italy is out if Spain-Croatia ends 2-2, causing some commotion in Italian papers. One wonders why they get so suspicious? at least there are not many arranged draws in football. A little song to cheer up... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW9R7ePry9s


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TalJechin God Member Offline There is no secret ingredient. Posts: 2892 Location: Malmö Joined: 08/12/04 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #118 - 06/17/12 at 11:48:26	Post Tools	Print Post
	Willempie wrote on 06/17/12 at 11:17:45: Smyslov_Fan wrote on 06/16/12 at 15:54:52: I don't recall a single Euro or WC where NO team has been guaranteed a spot in the next round after 2 games of Round Robin play before. Is this a first? I can be mistaken, but I dont know of any scenario in which the Frenchies are out. It's fantasy of course, but if Sweden beats France 2-0 and Ukraine beats England 1-0, wouldn't England's 4-4 beat France's 3-3 on more goals scored?


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Willempie God Member Offline I love ChessPublishing .com! Posts: 4312 Location: Holland Joined: 01/07/05	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #117 - 06/17/12 at 11:17:45	Post Tools	Print Post
	Smyslov_Fan wrote on 06/16/12 at 15:54:52: I don't recall a single Euro or WC where NO team has been guaranteed a spot in the next round after 2 games of Round Robin play before. Is this a first? I can be mistaken, but I dont know of any scenario in which the Frenchies are out.

	If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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TalJechin God Member Offline There is no secret ingredient. Posts: 2892 Location: Malmö Joined: 08/12/04 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #116 - 06/17/12 at 09:31:03	Post Tools	Print Post
	Hmm, given that there are 9 basic scenarios of 1 X 2 combined between both matches, Holland has less than 1 chance in 9 to go through (win must be by at least 2 goal + loss for DK). Germany has more than 8/9 (even a loss to DK while Portugal wins might be enough), Denmark 4/9, Portugal 6/9. But if it's a general trend that the teams that have impressed the least goes through, there may be some real orange hope... Quote: Yeah but it could have been 2-0 if the #%@# ref was just and gave us the penalty. Instead he gave a yellow card and we will be missing our captain in the next game. Nearly missed another goal with a free kick hitting the sidebar. Seems that you may have gotten 100% of penalties awarded when the tournament is over! A strange effect that there are less penalties despite that there are extra "penalty area" referees in each game. Two refs can apparently miss more than one?!


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chk God Member Offline a pawn is a pawn Posts: 1063 Location: Athens Joined: 10/26/06 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #115 - 06/17/12 at 08:21:36	Post Tools	Print Post
	Lou_Cyber wrote on 06/16/12 at 22:50:50: So it´s Greece again starting to stumble through the tourney with 1-0 wins ... could it be 2004 again? Yeah but it could have been 2-0 if the #%@# ref was just and gave us the penalty. Instead he gave a yellow card and we will be missing our captain in the next game. Nearly missed another goal with a free kick hitting the sidebar. So far, 3 out of 3 pretty hostile refs. At least the team has guts.. So congrats to the players - a heroic performance in these very bad times.. Also congrats to the Czechs: a team starting with a 1-4 loss and then managing to qualify as first!

	"I play honestly and I play to win. If I lose, I take my medicine." - Bobby
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Smyslov_Fan YaBB Moderator Correspondence fan Offline Progress depends on the unreasonable man. ~GBS Posts: 6902 Joined: 06/15/05	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #114 - 06/17/12 at 00:36:18	Post Tools	Print Post
	The oddsmakers have the Dutch at 11/2 odds to qualify. I'm no bookie, but I understand that to be ~15% chance (2 chances out of 13). THAT makes sense. It's possible, but all the other teams have better chances of making it. For those thinking the Dutch have a 60% chance of winning by 2 goals or more, you really should get down to your bookie at the earliest convenient moment. The oddsmakers are saying they have less than 20% of winning by two goals or more.


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Lou_Cyber Full Member Offline "I didn´t understand that. It must be true." Posts: 237 Location: Rendsburg Joined: 01/28/05 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #113 - 06/16/12 at 22:50:50	Post Tools	Print Post
	Exciting evening in group A. I watched Poland vs. Czechia and glimpsed at Russia vs. Greece. Very close, very exciting, but not very good football after all. So it´s Greece again starting to stumble through the tourney with 1-0 wins ... could it be 2004 again? Anyhow, the germans should be warned after seeing what happened to Russia today. And they still remember their defeat in the finals at Euro 1992, so I don´t think they will give it away. It will be interesting to see wether the Netherlands will get their things together - it might be a benefit for them to be in a "must win" situation, where Bert can throw caution to the wind. At least they have a chance of going down in style that way. 40% seems accurate to me. And if they make it, the team might pick up the winning spirit it takes to carry you through such a tournament. Portugal did not impress so far, they depend too much only on Ronaldo and Nani, who are not in best shape. So it is a difficult, but definitely a possible task.

	If you try, you may lose. If you don´t try, you have lost.
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TalJechin God Member Offline There is no secret ingredient. Posts: 2892 Location: Malmö Joined: 08/12/04 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #112 - 06/16/12 at 21:43:02	Post Tools	Print Post
	Uhohspaghettio wrote on 06/16/12 at 19:04:34: I would give Netherlands a 40% chance of getting through. From what I've seen they were incredibly unlucky against Denmark and slightly unlucky not to get a draw against Germany. I think they have both the technically gifted players and the attitude/desire to convincingly beat Portugal and maybe even win the tournament. If Ronaldo was on form for Portugal it might be different, but as it is he's wasting chances and a liability. However Germany may not be so enthusiastic about beating Denmark and knocking them out. If they draw, they will still top the group. Let's say 60% chance of beating Portugal by two goals, 65% chance of Germany beating Denmark = 39% chance. I just checked the results between NED and POR, and they sure don't look good for Holland. +1 = 3 -6 and the Dutch 1-0 win dates back to 1991... as comparison DEN - GER +9 =3 -15 (from 1912-to now) and the last three games between them actually makes the Danes the favourites! +2 =1 i.e: 2000 2-1, 2007 1-0, and 2010 2-2. Still, the stats don't decide the games, GRE-RUS +3 =5 -13 certainly didn't indicate a Greek victory.. though POL-CZE +3 =0 -2 at least hinted at the Czech equalising the score today.


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zoo Ex Member	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #111 - 06/16/12 at 20:32:36	Post Tools	Print Post
	it seems that Greece will stay in the Euro after all!


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Uhohspaghettio God Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 515 Joined: 02/23/11	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #110 - 06/16/12 at 19:04:34	Post Tools	Print Post
	I would give Netherlands a 40% chance of getting through. From what I've seen they were incredibly unlucky against Denmark and slightly unlucky not to get a draw against Germany. I think they have both the technically gifted players and the attitude/desire to convincingly beat Portugal and maybe even win the tournament. If Ronaldo was on form for Portugal it might be different, but as it is he's wasting chances and a liability. However Germany may not be so enthusiastic about beating Denmark and knocking them out. If they draw, they will still top the group. Let's say 60% chance of beating Portugal by two goals, 65% chance of Germany beating Denmark = 39% chance.


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Willempie God Member Offline I love ChessPublishing .com! Posts: 4312 Location: Holland Joined: 01/07/05	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #109 - 06/16/12 at 17:06:07	Post Tools	Print Post
	Smyslov_Fan wrote on 06/16/12 at 13:36:55: The Dutch are still in it. They can reasonably expect to win at least one game, and by 2 goals. And before the tournament I would have thought the Dutch fully capable of beating Portugal 3-1 on a really good day. They can reasonably expect Germany to defeat the Danes because even the Germans haven't wrapped up a spot in the next round yet! There's no need for Dutch fans to go to plan B, C, or D yet. They can still have things turn out fine! The dutch play so bad that even a team of 11 top chessplayers would beat them.

	If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.
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Smyslov_Fan YaBB Moderator Correspondence fan Offline Progress depends on the unreasonable man. ~GBS Posts: 6902 Joined: 06/15/05	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #108 - 06/16/12 at 15:54:52	Post Tools	Print Post
	I don't recall a single Euro or WC where NO team has been guaranteed a spot in the next round after 2 games of Round Robin play before. Is this a first?


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TalJechin God Member Offline There is no secret ingredient. Posts: 2892 Location: Malmö Joined: 08/12/04 Gender:	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #107 - 06/16/12 at 14:47:45	Post Tools	Print Post
	[quote author=695752525B534E575B3E0 link=1336403980/105#105 date=1339850946][quote author=4075785E71777C7D7A140 link=1336403980/104#104 date=1339797523]2-2 looked a bit cheap, looked like our goalie stumbled on himself or something. Still, they played better than in game 1 but not good enough - the attacks never really worked, symptomatic that a defender scored both our goals... Plan B activated: go Denmark![/quote] Did anyone bother to explain Isaksson the difference between keeping and dodgeball? ;) I am already at plan D after Ireland amd the Swedes. Any suggestions? ;D[/quote] Join plan B - Denmark! :) Though officially you're not allowed to, as Holland still has about 20% chance to go through. But I sympathise with you, when one's team plays like crap it sure is painful to watch...


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Smyslov_Fan YaBB Moderator Correspondence fan Offline Progress depends on the unreasonable man. ~GBS Posts: 6902 Joined: 06/15/05	Re: Euro 2012 - The Poll Reply #106 - 06/16/12 at 13:36:55	Post Tools	Print Post
	The Dutch are still in it. They can reasonably expect to win at least one game, and by 2 goals. And before the tournament I would have thought the Dutch fully capable of beating Portugal 3-1 on a really good day. They can reasonably expect Germany to defeat the Danes because even the Germans haven't wrapped up a spot in the next round yet! There's no need for Dutch fans to go to plan B, C, or D yet. They can still have things turn out fine!


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