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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC (Read 16048 times)
Girkassa
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #31 - 05/29/12 at 18:36:48
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Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/28/12 at 20:21:01:
If I remember correctly, there was a post referring to having a Chess960-styled tournament, except only a limited number of starting positions with all players knowing which positions will be chosen for the games. I was referring to this hypothetical situation, and in this specific occurrence, of course players will prepare for each chosen position that the tournament arbiters or organisers have chosen.


Yes, that is the sitiuation we are discussing, and of course players will prepare for each position, but...

Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/28/12 at 20:21:01:
Eventually if more tournaments were created in this style, then eventually each position will have their own theory. Each tournament where the organisers have a limit, for example 10, positions and notify the players which positions will be chosen and when, then eventually, for example if there are 1000 tournaments like this or more, eventually all 960 will have their own theory.


...good preparation requires good background knowledge, as I tried to illustrate with my KID example. And you will never have as much background knowledge of one single 960 position as you have about the "normal" starting position. Even if there would some day be as much theory about each position as there is about the "normal" starting position today, no strong player will ever study every single starting position in chess960 as thoroughly as he would study the only starting position we have today.

That is my stand, at least. But since there is no empirical evidence, and there won't be any until this game has been standard for a century, we probably just have to agree to disagree.
  
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Odd Gunnar Malin
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #30 - 05/28/12 at 23:55:49
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GeneM wrote on 05/19/12 at 19:36:10:
.
Try running Rybka without any opening book, to generate opening theory from move 1, for the traditional start position setup. The trees Rybka produces are be inferior to what humans have made.


For fun I made Komodo 4 run for a day with travel up and down the tree.
I used Aquarium for this with the settings of 1 minute pr. position (max 2 min.)

Here are the 'theorie' it come up with as absolute best move for each side.



You see QGD, French, Londonsystem etc. in there, and even a clasical sicilian.

Odd Gunnar
  
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Gilchrist is a legend
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #29 - 05/28/12 at 20:21:01
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If I remember correctly, there was a post referring to having a Chess960-styled tournament, except only a limited number of starting positions with all players knowing which positions will be chosen for the games. I was referring to this hypothetical situation, and in this specific occurrence, of course players will prepare for each chosen position that the tournament arbiters or organisers have chosen. Eventually if more tournaments were created in this style, then eventually each position will have their own theory. Each tournament where the organisers have a limit, for example 10, positions and notify the players which positions will be chosen and when, then eventually, for example if there are 1000 tournaments like this or more, eventually all 960 will have their own theory.
  

Creo lo que creo no importa lo que creen los demás.
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #28 - 05/28/12 at 10:17:14
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Tullius wrote on 05/28/12 at 06:30:22:

Maybe, but i remember of an article by an leading Chess960 propagandist who promised that Chess960 will level the difference between an Amateur and a Master (...) 

I am convinced that will not happen.


I had never heard about that statement before, and I agree with you that it is probably rather the opposite.

Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/28/12 at 07:07:06:
Preparation is 10 times more than regular chess, but they will do what they must to succeed in the tournament, regardless if it signifies 10 times more effort and 10 times more time allocated to memorising theory for all 10 positions.


Preparation is 10 times more than regular chess if, when the 10 chosen positions are announced, they already know as much about each of the 10 positions as they know about regular chess today. In my KID example, I can concentrate my preparation on the position after 13.Rc1 because I have studied the KID throughout my career, so I know some stuff about the other lines against the KID. If I was going to know as many concrete lines in every single chess960 starting position as I know in regular chess now, life would have been too short. I don't think anyone in the world would have focused that much of their chess training on pure memorization.

Note that this only applies to concrete lines. When it comes to patterns, it is a completely different story. Therefore, if chess960 is implemented in this way, I think opening theory will focus on patterns, not only during the first years, but also in year 2100.

Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/28/12 at 07:07:06:
Playing out theory without thinking because one memorised it an hour before the game is quite similar to writing down a formula without thinking because one memorised it an hour ago.


Okay, I can agree about this one. But one hour before the game, you can only memorize the lines that you think your opponent will most likely play. If your opponent deviates, you have to rely on what you know in advance. And in chess960, that is bound to be limited.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #27 - 05/28/12 at 07:07:06
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The analogy with mathematics was not to link memorising formulć with playing positions after theory, I was linking it to opening theory when preparation involves only memorisation of moves. Of course GMs forget memorisation of their moves, but many memorise their moves for their games. If they can memorise moves like a robot enough to play them on the board, it is the same as memorising like a robot mathematic formulć. In Chess960, eventually I would think, perhaps in decades, that GMs will eventually expend extra effort to memorise all 10 positions if 10 positions were given to them prior to playing. Preparation is 10 times more than regular chess, but they will do what they must to succeed in the tournament, regardless if it signifies 10 times more effort and 10 times more time allocated to memorising theory for all 10 positions. Playing out theory without thinking because one memorised it an hour before the game is quite similar to writing down a formula without thinking because one memorised it an hour ago.
  

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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #26 - 05/28/12 at 06:30:22
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the purpose of chess960 is to avoid the fact that people can prepare 20+ moves of concrete opening lines


Maybe, but i remember of an article by an leading Chess960 propagandist who promised that Chess960 will level the difference between an Amateur and a Master because in Chess960 there is no opening theory and so an Amateur who has no time to study openings will have a fair chance against a master and can play real chess. 

I am convinced that will not happen. As of much more possible "opening patterns" you have still to invest time and because Chess960 is more complicated the difference between Masters and Amateurs will have a greater effect. Even when opening theory is complex today you have at least a guideline but in Chess960 there will be many different much less concrete guidelines for the Amateur.

And there is one point which is in favour for the classical chess. The initial position is simply ideal. I think chess will lose too much.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #25 - 05/28/12 at 05:44:36
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I find that highly unlikely. Even with today's one and only starting position, strong GMs sometimes forget. With many different starting positions, it will be much harder, and you cannot devote as much time to every starting position as you can to the one starting position we use today.

I am not buying your analogy to mathematics, since in mathematics, there is a definite answer to every question, while in chess, there is not. Well, theoretically I guess there is, since every position is a win, draw or loss, but luckily, humans are not strong enough to evaluate every position that way. For the same reason, your analogy in one of your previous posts,

Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/26/12 at 01:08:54:
The circumstances only require that the players spend time on each of the positions, similar to if a professor somehow constructs the semester exam to have 10 questions and tells the students what the 10 questions will be prior to sitting it.


is only relevant to me if the questions are so difficult that a lifetime of study will not be enough to answer them properly.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #24 - 05/27/12 at 20:46:49
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I am sure that the beginning phases of preparation of Chess960 will be pattern recognition. But for example, in the year 2100, I am sure there will be computer programmes that analyse all 960 positions, and eventually some GMs will study all 960 if they want to compete in a major Chess960 tournament. I am sure eventually it will not be too difficult to memorise; probably no more difficult in a few decades than for a mathematician memorising integration formulć for calculus (∫(sinx)(cosx)) or those trigonometric half-angle ratios.
  

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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #23 - 05/27/12 at 19:18:32
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Tullius wrote on 05/27/12 at 12:42:25:

So you know which patterns your opponent likes. Of course, preperation will be then completely different but will play still an important role.


True. But if I have understood correctly, the purpose of chess960 is to avoid the fact that people can prepare 20+ moves of concrete opening lines. If people then start preparing for patterns rather than concrete lines, it means that the purpose is fulfilled.

Tullius wrote on 05/27/12 at 12:42:25:

Against an opponent who has a better understanding of the structure you can not simply learn all ideas in two hours, start Houdini, learn all variants and win without thinking.


100 % agreed. I see that my point wasn't expressed very clearly; allow me to reformulate it:

If I am playing the KID (which I am not, but it was the first example I could think of) and I see that my opponent usually plays the 13.Rc1 classical, I will focus my preparations on the 13.Rc1 line. Of course, my opponent may choose to deviate earlier on, but since I have studied the KID for some time, I know something about the other lines as well. Not everything, but something. Therefore, I prepare for the most probable line and rely on my knowledge in the other lines. Sure, understanding the arising positions is vital to success, but that understanding is, as you say, not learnt in the last two hours before the game.

In chess960, I will never have that much background knowledge of a concrete opening, and neither will my opponent. Therefore, preparing for a concrete position arising after 13 moves seems much less to the point.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #22 - 05/27/12 at 12:42:25
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Quote:
But your educated guess will be based on a very reduced number of games, since your opponent will only have played a few games with that exact starting position.


In principle that will not change the situation. If Chess960 should be become the most popular variation then preperation will be still valueable. Maybe at first will be chaos but soon people realize that you can classify the opening positions into more general categories and develop standart patterns which will be wellknow, played and repeated in hundreds or thousend of games which are stored in databases. So you know which patterns your opponent likes. Of course, preperation will be then completely different but will play still an important role. Maybe some player who rely "too much" on preperation will suffer but a weak player in classial chess will still be weak in Chess960.

Quote:
You won't have to re-study the first 12 moves, since you know some ways to deal with earlier deviations.


Here i a disagree. Preperations works only because 
people play every time the same variants and use the same methods which they do not really understand (that includes masters because many have a tendency to overrate their skills because they know "much" but "much" is far away form "all") so that they are out of the book after a new idea. Against an opponent who has a better understanding of the structure you can not simply learn all ideas in two hours, start Houdini, learn all variants and win without thinking.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #21 - 05/27/12 at 11:41:13
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Gilchrist is a legend wrote on 05/26/12 at 20:35:54:

That is the case with regular chess though, is it not? One only prepares with a computer and database and makes an educated case that opponent will play, for example, 1. d4.


But your educated guess will be based on a very reduced number of games, since your opponent will only have played a few games with that exact starting position.

Besides, you would know a lot less opening theory about each starting position than you would know about the one starting position every chess game starts with now. When preparing for a game in today's chess, you can look over your opponent's games and immediately recognize: "Oh, he is playing the 13.Rc1 line in the classical KID." You won't have to re-study the first 12 moves, since you know some ways to deal with earlier deviations. There is just no way you can learn every possible 960 position in the same detail as the "normal" starting position, and that will make your preparation harder.

Smyslov_Fan wrote on 05/26/12 at 20:56:06:
Kramnik once proposed removing en passant as a legal move.  He said that would substantially change opening theory for some key lines without substantially changing the rest of the game.


Who am I to argue against Kramnik, but I disagree that the rest of the game will not be substantially changed. In a lot of games, it is a key point that in a structure like a2, b3 vs b4, the a2-pawn is weak, and White is not able to create a passed pawn without help from his king or his other pieces. Without the en passant capture, White can simply change the whole picture by playing a4.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #20 - 05/26/12 at 21:42:39
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I played my first year of tournament chess without knowing or hearing of the en passant rule, until someone played en passant against me and I went to the arbiter and complained it was an illegal move Smiley

But even if there is no en passant, that would not affect the Najdorf 6. Bg5 as far as I know, not sure of the Botvinnik Semi-Slav. It might affect some lines but the other lines will still have their same theory and probably same amount of preparation by opponents.
  

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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #19 - 05/26/12 at 20:56:06
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Kramnik once proposed removing en passant as a legal move.  He said that would substantially change opening theory for some key lines without substantially changing the rest of the game.
  
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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #18 - 05/26/12 at 20:35:54
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Vandros wrote on 05/26/12 at 19:09:29:

It would be more difficult, since the players do not know what the opponent is going to play....



That is the case with regular chess though, is it not? One only prepares with a computer and database and makes an educated case that opponent will play, for example, 1. d4. It is not guaranteed the opponent will 100% play 1. d4. The other situation above with more than 1 start position simply means that the person will make educated guesses for every starting position likewise.
  

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Re: Draw rate solution - Discard the "Random" from FRC
Reply #17 - 05/26/12 at 19:51:23
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maybe invent something else than castling?

also we could add a new piece like the canon from chinese chess, which must jump over another piece to to take it ...
just one single new piece could transport chess on a whole new sphere, maybe replace the rooks by chinese canons =)
  
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