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Centipawns vs Pct chance of Winning, per Engine ? (Read 2311 times)

RdC God Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 868 Joined: 05/17/08	Re: Centipawns vs Pct chance of Winning, per Engine ? Reply #1 - 12/08/13 at 14:10:57	Post Tools	Print Post
	GeneM wrote on 12/07/13 at 19:31:12: [size=9]. I have heard that some newer chess engines have replaced the centipawns concept with something like a 'percentage chance of winning' --- Do I have that understood correctly? The ChessBase announcement of Houdini 4 says Houdini 4 uses calibrated evaluations in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the game against an equal opponent at blitz time control. At +2.00 the engine will win 95% of the time, and at +3.00 about 99% of the time. If the advantage is +0.50, expect to win nearly 50% of the time. http://en.chessbase.com/post/houdini-4-the-800-pound-gorilla-2 It seems a rather strange concept to me, given that chess is a deterministic game rather than a probabilistic one. In its way, it's a cop out, as a 2 pawn advantage should be adjudged "clearly winning", even if in practice only 95% of the games are actually won.


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GeneM Senior Member Offline Tournament winner gets two fun filled knights! Posts: 303 Location: near Seattle WA USA Joined: 01/12/08	Centipawns vs Pct chance of Winning, per Engine ? 12/07/13 at 19:31:12	Post Tools	Print Post
	. I have used Shredder, ChessMaster, Crafty, Rybka, and even Arena; but mostly I use Fritz. Fritz reports its evaluation of a position in terms of 'centipawns'. I have heard that some newer chess engines have replaced the centipawns concept with something like a 'percentage chance of winning' --- Do I have that understood correctly? ** Which chess engines report the position evaluation in units other than in centipawns? Are there any opinions about the relative desirability of centipawns vs other units? .

	GeneM , CastleLong.com , FRC-chess960
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