Confused_by_Theory wrote on 08/25/20 at 07:39:00:
1. Our methods of detection, although very advanced and ever-improving, can't provide a 100% confirmation. In many cases, the probability estimated is higher than the one for DNA tests. Do you believe a statistical algorithm (or a combination of those) giving close to 100% probability of cheating could stand as sufficient grounds for banning a player? If yes - what odds would you find sufficient?
In principle I believe banning should be allowed to happen based on strong statistical proof.
I would imagine at least some knowledge of how the anti cheating software puts together the near 100% probability is close to needed before giving opinions though. If say this remains near totally unclear for me as an outside observer I personally would be very much less inclined to a) run or ask for things to be run through the software in the first place and b) act on results.
Having multiple different statistical tools, as mentioned, is a good idea.
An algorithm needs to be verifiable. Researchers have made mistakes with algorithms before, sometimes quite crude mistakes, and so these things need to be checked by other researchers. This raises the issue that a cheater can inspect the algorithm and find a way not to exceed the threshold. So be it. If the algorithm is not sufficiently robust to survive such inspection by the enemy, then it can't be the sole basis for convicting such enemy. If an algorithm is a black box which can't be inspected or challenged, then an eventual miscarriage of justice is even more certain than the statistical "reliability" of the algorithm.
https://lostontime.blogspot.com/2019/10/ever-get-feeling-youve-been-cheated.html People for some psychological reason find computational answers too convincing. Give someone a calculator, an algorithm, and a task to calculate the distance from the Earth to the Moon. If the calculator returned 1.496E+11 meters, too many people would without hesitation put that answer down. More decimal places is even more "convincing". Ask someone "how did you get that result?". If the answer is "we used an algorithm" (or "statistical model", or "computer program", etc.), too many people would be completely satisfied with the response and never check the result. I find the argument "higher than the one for DNA tests" to be basically an appeal for the audience to make this kind of acceptance error. The more I think about "DNA tests", the more I wonder how these can have
any relation to algorithms for cheating.