hicetnunc wrote on 08/27/20 at 11:46:01:
an ordinary chessplayer wrote on 08/27/20 at 04:09:59:
(...) People get mesmerized by the large number of moves fed into the algorithm, and start to believe that the laws of large numbers apply. It's true in the computation of the algorithm sense, but in the legal sense it boils down to a single fact. And it's an indirect fact.
Why wouldn't the law of large numbers apply, if humans actually do play different moves than computers ? I mean, how is it different from estimating your odds of beating a much stronger player in a 2-games, vs. 6-games or 12 games match ?
I don't know about the legal aspect, but I don't find unreasonable to draw conclusions from a large enough # of moves/games provided your detection model is robust. The moves
have been played, even if it was online.
Well, it's a lottery. If my odds of victory against Magnus Carlsen in a single game is 1%, then my odds of going 12-0 against Magnus Carlsen in a 12-game match is 0.01^^12. Yet, despite being highly unlikely,
this is possible.
Everybody who runs a lottery knows you can't analyze the "fairness" of the lottery
ex post facto based on the numbers drawn, nor on who won. In a pick-6 lottery, the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6 are just as likely as any other single combination. If the brother of the guy who coded the lottery algorithm buys a lottery ticket, he is just as likely to win as any other single ticket-holder.
The only way to ensure the lottery is fair is by examining the equipment (or algorithm) before the game, holding the drawing in public, auditors observing the drawing of the numbers to make sure the equipment is actually used correctly, and then examining the equipment again after the game. The equipment is stored securely in between games, everything is audited all the time, an so on.
Online events want to skip any attempt at an audit, and use
ex post facto logic to ban players. Fine. Do that. Just admit that it's a shambles, and don't pretend there's any real fairness to it.
Edited: Fischer wins 6-0 against Taimanov.
Fischer wins 6-0 against Larsen.
Fischer wins 4-in-a-row to close out Petrosian.
Soviet counter-intelligence inspects the playing hall in Reykjavik. As they should.