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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Dvorkovich on cheating (Read 26749 times)
cathexis
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #63 - 05/03/21 at 11:31:59
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OK,

I can live with that. 

Because it doesn't help you however, does not mean you know it doesn't help anybody. Nor are they by definition ambiguous if someone can take meaning from them.  But I would say that I think there is a great deal one can say that only has value if the hearer finds meaning for themselves. If I have to convince you of what I "really meant" than it fails its purpose. Taken as stand-alone comments independent of the subject of this thread, both the meanings of my first post here and the quote seem glaringly obvious to me. But I am neither upset nor eager to explain myself if you disagree. To post a link from one of my all-time favorite movies, Little Big Man:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLso0ZBqOi4

Like I said, I can live with that.
  
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an ordinary chessplayer
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #62 - 05/02/21 at 17:23:28
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I agree with everything you wrote, but it doesn't pertain to your comment #60 about judging, so I'm not any closer to understanding what you meant by that. In particular the "find exactly what they were looking for" needs to be addressed. So yes, you didn't answer everything I asked. I also find your second quote about shortcuts to be highly arguable, and so I would say, "You are doing it again." It's easy to stand back and lob ambiguous "deep thoughts" into a discussion, but they don't really help anybody.
  
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cathexis
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #61 - 05/02/21 at 13:25:04
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The fallacy of equivocation is part of what's in my mind. Even Jesus got hit with it; Pilate trying to be clever and ask, "What IS truth?" Jesus' silence put proof to that. 

The cheat-detecting bot (or whatever you would label it) is only the product of some programmer and therefore can be no better a judge than it was programmed to be. Wesley So saw perfect play? Because he is a perfect player himself? Or maybe he just used a bot that saw another bot. For sure proof, right? Look up the wanted picture of Nat Turner, Rebel Slave ("Have you seen this man?") He's been dead for way over a hundred and fifty years, but anyone can still see that face most any time they care to. Its a drawing of anyone.

Look at your own words:

Quote:
I directly know all my own actions and most of my own motivations


So you think anyway. Wink You quibbled by correctly using the word, "most." But even that is debatable. This is not a 'dis to you, AOC. I respect you. But as an ICU RN with over 3 decades in the field I can't count the number of demented, or alcoholic, or addicted, or just scared for their lives (often rightfully) persons who were just as convinced as you that they knew exactly what was going on, why, and for what purpose. Do you imagine such events only occur in some pathological milieu? Think again. I also strongly agree with the Freudian-derived concepts of the Unconscious Mind, as well as that bio-chemical influences (hormones for instance) can and do deeply influence and at times control our behavior, including judgements we make of ourselves and others, often without us having the least idea of what's really driving our actions. Does this mean therefore no one can judge? Of course, not. But it does mean that the CIA term "blowback" ( the unintended and un-foreseen  consequences of our actions - even if undertaken for the most noble of reasons) will always be in play.

So, what I was REALLY doing was *griping* about how:
1. In-Person OTB arbiter & rule based events remain by far the best response to cheaters. ("Best," not perfect).

2. Therefore, interest in on-line play is a poor substitute, at best - at least for play that counts towards official ratings, etc. And perhaps just in general as well. A kind of group-think where many people agree to do it for fun & convenience despite its obvious pitfalls.

I want to finish with a quote. I heard it recently on You-Tube but failed to book-mark it. I really like it. If any know the source and could reply with it I would very much appreciate it. I believe it comes from Boris Gelfand and goes like this:

Quote:
Life has always been full of shortcuts that lead exactly to nowhere, and it has always been clear just exactly where they lead.
   

I don't think I've answered everything you asked, but its what you get, my friend. And as for Petrosian? I can only dream that one day I'll be so good Tigran will be forced to cheat in order to beat me. That would be sweet!

Respectfully,

Cathexis
  
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an ordinary chessplayer
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #60 - 05/02/21 at 03:59:35
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cathexis wrote on 05/01/21 at 14:05:58:
When people look to judge others, and if they look long enough, they will always find exactly what they were looking for whether it was really there or not.

I think there's a real danger of that. But it's not guaranteed. 

One thing about judging is this word covers a lot of different intellectual activities, from first impression up to marriage or excommunication. So I would like to know more about what kind of judging you have in mind.

Another thing about judging is that a person being judged is always complicated. There is a tendency to think that *I* am more complicated and *others* are more simple. I defend against this thought by realizing that I directly know all my own actions and most of my own motivations; but for others I know only some of their actions and can at best infer their motivations from that small sample of actions. This even assumes their motivations remain relatively constant, which again is based on the assumption they are simple.

Now I am also curious about the other side of your equation. Who did you have in mind being judged? Are we still talking about Petrosian?
  
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #59 - 05/01/21 at 14:05:58
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When people look to judge others, and if they look long enough, they will always find exactly what they were looking for whether it was really there or not.
  
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Confused_by_Theory
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #58 - 04/30/21 at 17:05:18
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Haha. Yes. Weird botting behaviour but funny result Grin

Down with the bots! Smiley
  
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an ordinary chessplayer
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #57 - 04/30/21 at 15:37:23
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As Stigma noted, a bot has been reposting with some word substitutions. So in a way, you just replied to yourself:

Confused_by_Theory wrote on 08/26/20 at 23:09:13:
Hi.

I guess working with probabilities is generally not complexity free. Is there not some legal principles that if there is uncertainty don't give the maximum penalty though?

Have a nice day.



Quote:
I surmise working with probabilities is for the most part not intricacy free. Is there not some lawful rules that if there is vulnerability don't give the most extreme punishment however?

The bot did it to one of my posts as well. I remember being annoyed because I had posted the same thing. But until Stigma pointed it out, I didn't realize it was the *exact* same thing with just a few words changed.
  
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #56 - 04/30/21 at 13:05:20
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Hi.

Yes. At least in legal settings and we keep comparing to that.

Without re-reading all the text, it seemed to me like Fide's approach was more base on standardised penalties though. The main thing then becomes if the accused person has passed or not passed some threshold.
Basically there is no trying to use sentencing as a tool. I.e.no: this guy gets a warning, that guy half a normal penalty and someone else like two times a normal penalty. Maybe that's good and keeps the whole system simple or you miss out on actually being able to give less harsh penalties in less severe cheating cases.

Have a nice day.
  
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #55 - 10/06/20 at 16:02:10
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IsaVulpes wrote on 10/06/20 at 02:32:02:
hicetnunc wrote on 10/05/20 at 19:29:45:
So I tend to agree that they probably used other pieces of evidence, but I wonder which ones, as the video feed doesn't look enough.

Rumour has it they crosschecked the top computer choices with the instances of Petrosian glancing downwards, and his moves correspondeded to engine a lot more during the downward glances

I think that eg the moves that Nakamura singled out as "Bit weird" all happened after downwards glances


I watched all the videos and have to say nothing I observed convinced me he cheated, yes he glances down at times for a millisecond, but is that really enough time to keep track of what is going on in a given position. To cheat like that effectively one would have to play all or nearly all computer moves, glancing down at something from time to time is suspicious but doesn't feel like a feasible cheating method to me.

The fact that he managed 3.5 out of 4 against the likes of Caruana, So and Dominguez is in itself suspicious and one wonders if he has ever accomplished a similar feat before. Nevertheless the onus is on chess.com to justify their decision with more compelling proof.

  

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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #54 - 10/06/20 at 12:34:45
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This is my thinking as well. It's my opinion that their process has always been at best arbitrary and subjective. If they ever had a statistically valid argument, they could easily quote the statistics (probability and confidence level) without giving away their algorithm. But they don't, I wonder why...
  
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hicetnunc
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #53 - 10/06/20 at 08:53:04
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IsaVulpes wrote on 10/06/20 at 02:32:02:
hicetnunc wrote on 10/05/20 at 19:29:45:
So I tend to agree that they probably used other pieces of evidence, but I wonder which ones, as the video feed doesn't look enough.

Rumour has it they crosschecked the top computer choices with the instances of Petrosian glancing downwards, and his moves correspondeded to engine a lot more during the downward glances

I think that eg the moves that Nakamura singled out as "Bit weird" all happened after downwards glances


If they just check "weird moves" (which sounds subjective), there's no way they could have enough matches to conclude (even a 100% match is not enough if we're talking 2-3 moves/game); if they check top engine moves, they would still need a lot of matches with eyes dropping down to get any kind of statistically conclusive evidence (these guys play top computer choice roughly 50% of the time). Judging by the published feeds, TL Petrosyan was looking down a lot, no matter what quality of moves he was playing, so I doubt this is the explanation, or at least, a statistically valid explanation.
  

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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #52 - 10/06/20 at 05:14:05
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LeeRoth wrote on 10/05/20 at 18:59:35:
This article is a couple of years old.  The video I gave above is from 2020 and updates this.  In general, Chess.com claims to have gotten much more accurate in their cheat detection.  If that is true, then pointing to problems and false positives in the past may be of little relevance to what is going on now.

I don't watch youtube at all, because my internet connection is metered and streaming is too expensive for me. But if you are convinced by some video then I guess that's the final answer.
  
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #51 - 10/06/20 at 02:32:02
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hicetnunc wrote on 10/05/20 at 19:29:45:
So I tend to agree that they probably used other pieces of evidence, but I wonder which ones, as the video feed doesn't look enough.

Rumour has it they crosschecked the top computer choices with the instances of Petrosian glancing downwards, and his moves correspondeded to engine a lot more during the downward glances

I think that eg the moves that Nakamura singled out as "Bit weird" all happened after downwards glances
  
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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #50 - 10/05/20 at 19:29:45
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Quote:

(...) One issue with game analysis is that we don't know which games to analyze -- i.e., whether Petrosian stands accused of cheating in all the semi-final and final games or only some of them.

Petrosian lost two games in the semi-final match, but they were the first two games, and some have suggested that he might have started cheating after that.  But what do people make of the Caruana game, where it looked like Petrosian was losing at one point? 


I also have game by game stats, and it shows nothing outstanding either. Besides, for any statistical method to be reliable, you need as large a sample as possible and for these super-GMs, you need either a fairly large sample or really extraordinary engine correlation scores to draw robust conclusions. So I tend to agree that they probably used other pieces of evidence, but I wonder which ones, as the video feed doesn't look enough.
  

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Re: Dvorkovich on cheating
Reply #49 - 10/05/20 at 18:59:35
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hicetnunc wrote on 10/04/20 at 13:55:05:
I ran a couple of games through pgnspy and the statistics don't show obvious cheating :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JJvdAg9eQsVbUMWpk5bVWOgJ8q-y6lPEYRViSC3n....

pgn-spy spots two mistakes in undecided positions (BR column) : 46.Qc3 against Dominguez (with the eval dropping to = after a Q trade) and 27...Kh7? against Caruana, allowing a winning combo.

The statistics in the semi-final games were even less impressive.


Interesting, thanks for posting.

Nakamura looked at some of the games on his twitch channel and, with the exception of one or two moves, thought they looked pretty standard.  Yet he gives the benefit of the doubt to Chess.com because he doesn't think they would have issued a press release and singled out Petrosian by name, if they didn't have something conclusive.

One issue with game analysis is that we don't know which games to analyze -- i.e., whether Petrosian stands accused of cheating in all the semi-final and final games or only some of them.

Petrosian lost two games in the semi-final match, but they were the first two games, and some have suggested that he might have started cheating after that.  But what do people make of the Caruana game, where it looked like Petrosian was losing at one point? 

We also don't know how much the game analysis factored in to the determination.  Some have pointed out that Chess.com would have continuous video of Petrosian and not just the snippets that the viewers saw.  Possible that Chess.com saw something there?

an ordinary chessplayer wrote on 10/04/20 at 20:35:58:
My extensive research (clicking on the first most likely link in google) led to this page: Chess.com Fair Play and Cheat-Detection
https://www.chess.com/article/view/chess-com-fair-play-and-cheat-detection


This article is a couple of years old.  The video I gave above is from 2020 and updates this.  In general, Chess.com claims to have gotten much more accurate in their cheat detection.  If that is true, then pointing to problems and false positives in the past may be of little relevance to what is going on now.

Bottom line is that, other than Chess.com, Petrosian and perhaps a few others who are in the know, no one knows what went on here.  Will be interesting to see if this is reported to FIDE and, if so, what FIDE will do.

« Last Edit: 10/05/20 at 21:33:44 by LeeRoth »  
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