In Chapter 4 of his insightful book Decision Making in Major Piece Endings (First edition 2020 by Quality Chess UK Ltd, 2020; Russian edition, Moscow 2022), Gelfand provides an in-depth analysis of rook endgames with e-, f-, and h-pawns versus f- and h-pawns. He shows that the endgame with an h-pawn is actually a draw, unlike the endgame with White's e-, f- and g-pawns. In his analysis of the game Aronian vs. Nakamura (2016), Gelfand notes that “in the press conference, Aronian confidently told Miroshnichenko and Kosteniuk, the official commentators, that he 'knew' White was winning here, and that he had been informed of this by Vardan Poghosyan” (Gelfand, Russian edition, p. 129). Having never analysed such an endgame with an h-pawn before, I was very surprised when Levon made this statement during the press conference. However, after some thought, I realized why Levon believed that the endgame that arose after move 55, was winning for White.

When I discovered in early 2013 that White can win in the analogous rook endgame Duras-Capablanca (1913) with White's g-pawn (not h-pawn!) even when the king has advanced to f5, I shared this discovery with my friend Levon. During the game, Levon apparently thought he was dealing with the endgame I had shown him, but overlooked the fact that my analysis referred to the case where the pawn is on g4 and not on h4.

In his game against Nakamura, Levon quickly exchanged the a-pawn with 54.Ra7? and 55.Ra3? and moved to the endgame that he believed was won for White. As Gelfand explains in detail, this endgame is objectively a draw. Nonetheless, his analysis before moving to this endgame has some flaws.


 
D. 1



54.Ra7? 

This move is a loss of tempo and throws away the win. After taking the a-pawn, White will have to exchange its a-pawn with Black's c-pawn. As already mentioned, the resulting endgame is objectively a draw. However, as we know, Aronian aimed for such an endgame because he „knew” that the ensuing endgame was winning. 

Meanwhile, the plan for victory was quite simple. It was necessary to stop Black's c-pawn first without fearing the loss of the a2-pawn. As long as the Black king is still on f8, the loss of the a2 pawn is not dangerous for White. By creating the mating threat, the White rook manages to capture the f7-pawn and then stop the advance of the a-pawn.

Gelfand rightly suggests 54.Rc7, but he offers no analysis.

D. 1-1



a) 54...Rb2 55.Rxc5 Rxa2 56.Kf6 Ke8 57.f5 Rf2 58.Rc8+! Kd7 59.Rf8! a2 60.Rxf7+ Kc6 61.Ra7+–.

b) 54…c4 55.h5 Ra4 56.Rc8+ Kg7 57.Ke4+–, transposing to the analysis of Gelfand after 55.Rc7! (instead of 55.Rxa3? played by Aronian) 55…Ra4 56.Rc6 Kg7 57.Rc8 Rb4 58.Rc7! Kf8 59.h5 Ra4 60.Rc8+ Kg7 61.Ke4+–. 

D. 2



54…c4?

A losing mistake that neither Gelfand nor Roiz (who commented on this game in the Mega Database) noticed.

Black misses the only saving move - 54...Rb2! Now 55.Rc7 is not any more helpful as in the lines  54.Rc7 (instead of 54.Ra7?) and 54.Ra7? c4? Black can avoid the mating net by a) 55...Ke8 or b) 55...Rf2. 

a) 55...Ke8 transposes into the line of Gelfand after 52...Ke8 (instead of 52...a3?) 53.Rc7 Rb2 54.f4 a3! (P. 126 of the Russian edition).   
b) 55…Rf2 56.Rxc5 Kg7 57.Rc7 Kg8! 58.h5 Rxa2! 59.Kf6 Rf2! 60.f5 a2! 61.Rc8+ Kh7 62.Ra8 Re2! 63.Ra7 Kg8! 64.e6 fxe6! 65.fxe6 Rf2+ 66.Ke7 Rb2 67.Ra8+ Kg7 68.Kd7 Rd2+ 69.Ke8 Kf6 70.e7 Kg7=.

55.Rxa3?

Aronian consistently implements his flawed plan. As Gelfand convincingly showed, White wins after 55.Rc7. There is only one small inaccuracy in his analysis in the line 56.Rc6 Kg7 57.Rc8 Rb4 58.Rc7! Rb2 59.e6! Rb5+ 60.Ke4! Kf6 61.e7! Rb8 62.Kd4! Ke6 63.Kxc4 Kd6 64.Rb7 Rc8+ 65.Kb4 Re8. After 64… Rc8+ Gelfand suggests 65.Kd4 which is winning, but believes that 65.Kb4 Re8 is drawish. 

D. 2-1



Gelfand analysis here only 66.Kxa3? Kc6 67.Ra7 Kb6 68.Rd7 Kc6 which indeed is a draw, but White can win by 66.Ra7 Kc6 67.Ra6+ (or 67.Kc4 Kd6 68.f5 Rc8+ 69.Kb4 Rb8+ 70.Kxa3+–) 67...Kb7 68.Rxh6 Rxe7 69.Rf6 Re3 70.h5 Rh3 71.Rxf7++–. 

55...Rb2 56.Ra6 Kg7 57.a4 c3 58.Ra7 c2 59.Rc7 Rb4 60.a5 Ra4 61.Rxc2 Rxa5

D. 3



As Gelfand shows in detail in his analysis of the game Gelfand-Belyavsky (1999) (Russian edition, pp. 119 – 124), this kind of endgame with White's h-pawn is drawn. If the White pawn were on g4, White would win.

62.Rc4 Ra1 63.Rc7 Kf8 64.Rd7 Ra4 65.Rd3 Rc4 66.Re3 Ke7 67.Re4 Rc1 68.Rb4 Kf8! 69.Rb6 Kg7! 70.Rb7 Kf8 71.Rb8+ Kg7! 72.Rb4 Ra1 73.Rd4 Ra2 74.Rd7 Kf8?? 75.Kf6 Ra6+ 76.Rd6 Ra8 77.h5 Kg8 78.f5 Rb8 79.Rd7 Rb6+ 80.Ke7 Rb5 81.Rd8+ Kh7 82.Kf6 Rb6+ 83.Rd6 Rb7 . 1–0.