I probably shouldn't spend any more time on this line, and instead start going about the business of systematically learning the Chinese dragon lines, but I can’t resist…
Let's start with what I think is White's best:
14.h5 b4 15.Nd5 Nxd5 16.exd5 Nc4 17.Qf2!? Nxe3 18.Qxe3 Qc5!
I agree that this is something of an improvement for Black, and a line I had not specifically looked at. 19.hxg6 hxg6 20.Qxe7 Rc7 21.Qe4 Re8
This is much stronger. Everyone knows that the queen is going nowhere on h4. Re8 seems critical; maybe other moves are as good.
22. Ne6! Qb6
This is the thematic move in these lines, and must always be considered. The knight is invulnerable, and makes it difficult for Black to coordinate his pieces. I think Qb6 is forced, otherwise, White can play Qd3 and black already looked busted. Black needs to stay on the a7-g1 diagonal so as to threaten Qe3+ and hope to get the queens off, i.e. now 23.Qd3? fxe6 24.Qxg6 Qe3+ 25.Kb1 Qe5 and black is much better.
The only alternative is then 22…Qf2 23.Qxb4 fxe6 24.dxe6 and you can check that the tactics work out for white. (I haven’t, but Fritz seems pleased). White has all sorts of mate threats. Ignoring the knight doesn’t help; if white can take on g7 everything is over.
23. f4
The position is better for White. I’m not sure it pays to spend the time here to analyze this out to mate, because I just don’t see how Black will continue to generate counterplay. There is certainly no time for pushing the a-pawn.
If you think Black can survive, I'd like to see the continuation.
Now, let’s look at some other lines.
I should point out that after 14.h5 b4 15.Nd5 Nxd5 16.exd5 Nc4 17.Bxc4!? Rxc4 18.hxg6 Qxa2 19.gxf7+ Kxf7 (19…Kf8 is met strongly by 20.Qd3!) 20.Qd3
The position is very messy, and it is far from clear that Black is ok. This is actually, with the Qf2 line, one of the most critical lines in the entire line. 20…h6 21.Rxh6, for example, is a possible continuation. Then Bxh6 22.Bxh6 Rh8 23.g5 Ke8 is basically forced and now 24.Nb3 is a testing continuation. I certainly can’t judge the position at a glance.
On the positive side, my old analysis convinced me that black was OK after Nce2. Since it is favored by Kudrin (he has played it, remarkably, at least twice), one has to wonder, though. His wins, however, both featured some over-ambitious play by black. I don’t think that this line is necessarily much better for white, but certainly deserves closer scrutiny. Kudrin may be playing this way simply because it is solid for White, and even if it isn't the most critical continuation, it allows him to defeat inferior opponents with little risk.
Finally, I am not so sure that your main line is as solid as you believe. Black has a lot of alternatives, though, and while there may be ways of refuting them all(!), I would agree that Black has a very playable game.
15. Nd5 Nxd5 16.Bxd5 Nc4 17.BxNc4 Rxc4 18.Kb1 Rac8
Black has an alternative here, in 18…Qe5. I think it is safer.
19.hxg6 fxg6 20.Qh2 h6
What else? Now 21.Rd2 and Nb3 are alternatives, but Rd2 seems stronger since it carries the immediate threat of Bxh6 and keeps the knight around in case it wants to go to f5. I stopped my analysis here when I last looked.
I’m not sure I want to look at this any more until I have a verdict on the Qf2 lines, as both 21.Rd2 g5!? And 21…Ba4 seem promising enough for Black, and earlier deviations are also potentially strong, or at least playable.
Well, I think this is what I had judged to be most critical. In my opinion, we should focus on Qf2 first, though, as I really do believe that to be the most dangerous.
And watch out for Ne6! It really is very dangerous, and the computers tend to underestimate it.
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