gwnn wrote on 06/01/11 at 15:08:21:
Are there really bunnies out there?
Topalov, Kamsky, Mamedyarov, Grischuk, Kramnik, Gelfand, Radjabov and Aronian all looked very strong and there wasn't much between them (granted, maybe the short matches contributed to this impression). Of course, all is relative, but I don't think there would be anyone who'd have got anything worse than, say, -4 in a double round robin.
Check out San Luis 2005, the tournament that made Topalov the/a world champion. Out of 14 rounds, Polgar finished with 4.5, Adams and Kasim with 5.5. While none are bunnies, they were definitely the weaker ones in that tournament compared to Topalov, Anand, Svidler and Moro. Even more revealing is Leko's performance. He finished 5th with 6.5, but scored only 2 out of 8 against the top 4 in the field. Makes you wonder how the event would have turned out if he had won the first game vs Topalov (he had a winning position). Leko was one of the favorites to win San Luis; his loss in rd 1 really hurt him, it propelled Topalov, and forced Leko to overpress in other games in an effort to catch up. Final comment on bunnies. Often that is only revealed after the tournament, when you see who was really off form.
In San Luis, Anand and Topalov drew their 2 games. One of the main differences in their scores was that Anand lost 2 games, including 1 to Kasim, while Topalov lost none. So the world championship was decided by who scored best vs the lower half of the field. Do you really want the world championship determined by a third party (even a very strong 3rd party, no offense to the outstanding GM's intended), rather than the 2 best players going head to head?
I also recall the Candidates tournaments 1959 and 1962 with Paul Keres. I recall Tal and Petrosian both beat him out, and the key difference was not head to head games, but their results vs a certain American kid named Bobby.
That's why I think the world championship needs to be decided by matches, and not a tournament. Sofia rules would help, longer matches would help, a more combative opening repertoire with black would especially help Kramnik (and many others), but I think you guys hit the nail on the head. Not enough $ to pay for the organization of longer matches, not just prize money.
I am happy for Gelfand. He took his chances and deserved to win. Always liked him.