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Poll

Question: NEW POLL! Who will win the Candidates?


* This poll has now closed *
Boris Gelfand 6 (17.1%) Gata Kamsky 5 (14.3%) Vladimir Kramnik 21 (60.0%) Alexander Grischuk 3 (8.6%) Total votes: 35 « Created by: Smyslov_Fan on: 05/11/11 at 02:56:26 »

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Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 (Read 102635 times)

Keano God Member Offline Money doesn't talk, it swears. Posts: 2924 Location: Toulouse Joined: 05/25/05 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #253 - 05/26/11 at 09:45:40	Post Tools	Print Post
	Anand is stronger but a 12 game match is quite short so Gelfand must have some chances, especially if he gets off to a good start. I'd hazard a guess he must have about a 30% chance of winning the match. The people who say he has no chance have obviously never lost their money betting on hot favourites like me.


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TN God Member Offline Posts: 3420 Joined: 11/07/08 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #252 - 05/26/11 at 09:06:38	Post Tools	Print Post
	trw wrote on 05/25/11 at 14:57:14: I see no reason why Anand should be pleased... unless its because the jew/israel factor ensures there will be money. However, white finally won a game too! I was referring to the entire Candidates Matches cycle, not just the final match. I share Akita's prediction that the match Anand-Gelfand will be 6.5-4.5, simply because Anand is a stronger player than Gelfand. I don't doubt that it will be a good match, but in my opinion an Anand-Carlsen match would have been better.

	All our dreams come true if we have the courage to pursue them.
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Stigma God Member Offline There is a crack in everything. Posts: 3276 Joined: 11/07/06 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #251 - 05/26/11 at 01:13:23	Post Tools	Print Post
	MNb wrote on 05/25/11 at 22:00:38: Zlatoest is not far from Asia either and do Baku and Toeapse belong to Europe? Btw in football (the real, European version, not the one played in the USA using hands) Israel plays for Europe. That is really tricky actually! I "researched" it in Wikipedia and concluded Tuapse is most likely in Europe while Baku is in Asia (using the Greater Caucasus as the border). Zlatoust is hardest; maybe Asia? Pervouralsk almost straigth north supposedly lies on the contintental border. Someone with a better map should judge this. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Europe_Asia_transcontinental....

	Improvement begins at the edge of your comfort zone. -Jonathan Rowson
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MNb God Member Offline Rudolf Spielmann forever Posts: 10776 Location: Moengo Joined: 01/05/04 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #250 - 05/25/11 at 22:00:38	Post Tools	Print Post
	nimzo5 wrote on 05/25/11 at 16:15:35: Would anyone consider Gelfand a legitimate WC (i.e. Kasparov, Karpov etc.) if he beat Anand in a 12 game match? I do. What's more, I will even consider you a legitimate WCh if you beat Anand in a 12 game match. Anand must be considered the favourite indeed. Gelfand's last win in a regular game is from 1993. Fromper wrote on 05/25/11 at 18:01:27: Will this be the first time that the continent of Europe hasn't been represented in the final World Championship match? Zlatoest is not far from Asia either and do Baku and Toeapse belong to Europe? Btw in football (the real, European version, not the one played in the USA using hands) Israel plays for Europe.

	The book had the effect good books usually have: it made the stupids more stupid, the intelligent more intelligent and the other thousands of readers remained unchanged. GC Lichtenberg
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akita Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 93 Joined: 03/06/06	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #249 - 05/25/11 at 21:45:16	Post Tools	Print Post
	Hi TRW It's the way you say it. I stand corrected 6.5-4.5 to Anand is my prediction. Akita


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trw YaBB Moderator Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 1414 Joined: 05/06/08 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #248 - 05/25/11 at 21:17:02	Post Tools	Print Post
	SteelyDanIII wrote on 05/25/11 at 21:14:41: 6,5-0,5 (seven games) or 6,5-3,5 (ten games) But anyways 6,5-4,5 is the expected score according to Elo ratings. No need to make it personal against Akita Its not personal... just correcting a factual error does not make things personal. he might be trying to make it personal but I am certainly not.


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SteelyDanIII Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 86 Joined: 05/14/10	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #247 - 05/25/11 at 21:14:41	Post Tools	Print Post
	6,5-0,5 (seven games) or 6,5-3,5 (ten games) But anyways 6,5-4,5 is the expected score according to Elo ratings. No need to make it personal against Akita


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akita Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 93 Joined: 03/06/06	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #246 - 05/25/11 at 21:09:50	Post Tools	Print Post
	Hi trw The first to 6.5 in a 12 game match wins. The match score could be 6.5-1.0 (after 7 games) or 6.5-4.0 (after 10 games). The match is over because it's the first to 6.5 in Classical games! Is that a bit too complicated for you? Boy you are hard work! Akita


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trw YaBB Moderator Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 1414 Joined: 05/06/08 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #245 - 05/25/11 at 20:52:17	Post Tools	Print Post
	yes everyone knows the match ends at 6.5... but 6.5+4=10.5 not a possible score ever. hello 10 or 11?


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akita Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 93 Joined: 03/06/06	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #244 - 05/25/11 at 20:47:11	Post Tools	Print Post
	Hi TRW Oh dear please don't start on a personal tirade. OK in a 12 game match the first to 6.5 wins. Get it! I do not have a bias on Anand. He is not my favourite player but I like him as he is a real gentlemen unlike some top GM's. To me I think the public would love to see an Anand-Carlsen match up but that's another story. Gelfand will come well prepared for Anand and I wish him well. Let's hope we see some fighting Chess. I hope the match would be over 14 games or more but that may not happen. Akita


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trw YaBB Moderator Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 1414 Joined: 05/06/08 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #243 - 05/25/11 at 20:36:28	Post Tools	Print Post
	Stigma wrote on 05/25/11 at 20:18:53: akita wrote on 05/25/11 at 19:05:20: He will be beaten by Anand. As I said Anand really is a class above him. That's no disgrace it's a fact. I still stick with 6.5-4. Maybe he can win it but I doubt it. Akita Why 6.5-4? That kind of score only happens in extraordinary cases, like one side losing due to mobile phone ringing, bringing the game into disrepute etc. while the opponent lacks material to mate. Normally there's 1 point to score per game, as I'm sure you're aware. I guess you're using some scoring system I'm not familiar with... He's suggesting the match is so lopsided that it will be Anand winning the match long before the 12th game however the 6.5 +4 does not add up to a possible match score as it is saying 10.5 games so whether he means 10 game match or an 11 game match. He's trying to suggest Gelfand is pathetic. I think he will be surprised to see his hero struggle. I will again insinuate he's an Indian showing patriotism.


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Stigma God Member Offline There is a crack in everything. Posts: 3276 Joined: 11/07/06 Gender:	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #242 - 05/25/11 at 20:18:53	Post Tools	Print Post
	akita wrote on 05/25/11 at 19:05:20: He will be beaten by Anand. As I said Anand really is a class above him. That's no disgrace it's a fact. I still stick with 6.5-4. Maybe he can win it but I doubt it. Akita Why 6.5-4? That kind of score only happens in extraordinary cases, like one side losing due to mobile phone ringing, bringing the game into disrepute etc. while the opponent lacks material to mate. Normally there's 1 point to score per game, as I'm sure you're aware. I guess you're using some scoring system I'm not familiar with...

	Improvement begins at the edge of your comfort zone. -Jonathan Rowson
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SteelyDanIII Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 86 Joined: 05/14/10	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #241 - 05/25/11 at 19:15:04	Post Tools	Print Post
	If we go only by ratings, Anand is rated 84 points higher and should therefore score 62%, which is approximately 7,5 out of 12


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akita Junior Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 93 Joined: 03/06/06	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #240 - 05/25/11 at 19:05:20	Post Tools	Print Post
	Hi trw Read my post. Gelfand is a worthy challenger but would he have got that far had ther been a tournament or serious candidates match 12 games or more? Possibly not. I like him. He is a genuine kind of guy and it's not his fault that he has to play in this poor man's version of a Candidates qualifier. He will be beaten by Anand. As I said Anand really is a class above him. That's no disgrace it's a fact. I still stick with 6.5-4. Maybe he can win it but I doubt it. Akita


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MartinC God Member Offline I Love ChessPublishing! Posts: 2110 Joined: 07/24/06	Re: Candidate matches 2011 for WC 2012 Reply #239 - 05/25/11 at 18:08:39	Post Tools	Print Post
	Um yes. Gelfand not quite as hard to win against as Kramnik, or as dangerous as Aronian/Carlsen but he's certainly a genuinely strong player who'll make sure he's very well prepared. So it won't be easy, especially over 'only' 12(10?!) games. Certainly far from the worst challenger ever in historical terms. I vaguely wanted Aronian to get through because it would have been fascinating to see him in a long match, but happy enough, so long as it gets organised!


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