MNb wrote on 02/23/11 at 20:45:56:
You're absolutely right. 17.a3 Na6 18.Nf3 wins a safe pawn and 17.a3 f5 18.Bf3 Na6 leaves Black with bad piece coordination. Maybe 14...Rxc6 15.Qxc6 Nb4 16.Qa4 Qxd3 17.Nf3 Qa6 18.Qd1 c5 is possible, but I don't have much faith in it.
This looks like the end, my friend.
I am still a little unsure if white wins a safe pawn in that line.
To bring everyone up to date on what I'm looking at (since expecting you to read my mind or research everything is not fair), I am currently examining the line:
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5 d5 5.exd5 Nd4 6.c3 b5 7.Bf1 Nxd5 8.cxd4 Qxg5 9.Bxb5+ Kd8 10.O-O (Agreed - stronger than 10.Qf3 - the Ra8 sac is a powerful idea indeed!) exd4 11.Bc6 Rb8 12.d3 Qf5 13.Nd2! Rb6 14.Qa4! Nb4 (Black's last chance as the alternatives look unpalateable) 15.Be4 Qb5 16.Qxb5 Rxb5 17.a3! Na6 18.Nf3.
Why can black not play the simple 18...c5 here? 19.Ng5 looks like the standard follow-up, but 19...Be6 20.Nxe6+ fxe6 doesn't look like the end of the world for black. I'd suggest white is probably a little better, but material is equal and a manoeuvre like Nc7-e8-f6 should yield a fairly solid and defensible position, even against the two bishops.
Am I missing something hideously obvious here that crushes black earlier? Or did you just evaluate this position as hopeless I wonder? Maybe white instead plays 19.b4? But then 19..f6 and it's still a game - again maybe white has a pull but having spent years defending far worse positions, I don't think it's hopeless yet...