tony37 wrote on 02/03/14 at 12:20:22:
MarkG wrote on 02/03/14 at 01:30:02:
Right. There is a school of thought that 3.Nc3 is inaccurate in the Caro Kann precisely because black can transpose to a good Gurgenidze so probably Seirawan fully intended to play a Caro against 3.Nd2 and only transposed to the modern to take advantage of Smyslov's move order. So, I think your original point fully stands - this was a Caro Kann played in must win situation.
I've been thinking about that 'school of thought' and my thinking was: maybe it's better for white to play 3.Nc3, inviting a Gurgenidze, where white may have better chances of an advantage than in the main line Caro Kann
but when I look at the statistics I see that 3...g6 isn't played more after 3.Nd2 than after 3.Nc3
That's because white's best chances in the Gurgenidze involve playing f4 and repositioning his queen's knight to f3. Obviously, if he can do this via d2 rather than c3 he will save several tempi. Black really shouldn't allow this.
This is wandering a little off topic for this thread but it is useful to look at this from a Modern move order. Assuming black wants to play a Gurgenidze structure, after 1.e4 g6 2.d4 he would really like to wait for white to commit his queen knight. Ideally, he would prefer a move other than 2...d6 or 2...Bg7, both of which represent tempi lost in the Gurgenidze. However, after the only likely candidate 2...c6, white can also mark time by playing 3.f4.
If black now plays, for example, 3...d6 then white can continue 4.Nc3 satisfied that if black now tries 4...d5 then 5.e5 reaches a line that could be reached from the Caro move order where white has been gifted the free move f4. On the other hand, if black goes ahead and plays 3...d5 anyway, then take a look at Kosintseva-Blatny, Moscow 2004 to see how white made very effective use of the fact that she had held back her queen knight.